San Diego Padres 2025 offseason preview: After another early playoff exit, can the Padres get over the hump next year?

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2025 season: 90-72, second in NL West, eliminated in wild card

With the Padres eliminated by the Cubs in the 2025 postseason, let’s take a look at the season that was in San Diego, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for next year.

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Read more: MLB offseason previews 2025: What’s next for the White Sox, Pirates, Twins and more?

Things that went right

By design, the Padres featured baseball’s best bullpen. San Diego’s front office placed great emphasis on accumulating a loaded group of relievers, which included an aggressive summer trade with the Athletics to acquire fireballer Mason Miller. The move paid off, as a relief corps led by Miller, Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon led the majors with a 3.06 ERA. The effective late-inning work made up for a rotation that dealt with numerous injuries and inconsistencies outside of staff ace Nick Pivetta, who had a career year (2.87 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) in his first season with the club.

There were fewer successes at the plate, as the team’s best hitters were mostly disappointing and the club finished 18th in runs scored. But it’s worth mentioning Ramón Laureano, who arrived at the trade deadline and gave the lineup a much-needed spark down the stretch. Laureano had an excellent first half with the Orioles (.884 OPS) and finished a career year by logging an .812 OPS in his two months with the Padres. Unfortunately, Laureano was placed on the IL due to a fractured finger in the final days of the regular season. The Padres’ offense definitely missed him in their wild-card series loss.

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Things that went wrong

As noted above, San Diego’s lineup fell short of expectations in 2025, and the problems were centered on the superstars. Although he’s just 26 years old, it’s fair to say that Fernando Tatis Jr. isn’t the same player since he missed the 2022 season due to injury and suspension. He started off hot this year but recorded a .768 OPS after May 1. Although Manny Machado didn’t slump for as long as Tatis, he logged a .629 OPS after Aug. 1, when the team was pushing the Dodgers for the NL West crown.

Jackson Merrill made it a trio of disappointing star players. After hitting .292 with 24 homers and 16 steals as a rookie in 2024, he endured three IL stints for separate injuries and batted .264 with 16 homers and one steal in 115 games this year. Finally, the catcher spot was a big hole in the lineup all season. Martín Maldonado (.572 OPS) and Elias Díaz (.607 OPS) struggled mightily, and Freddy Fermin (.617 OPS) didn’t help much after arriving at the trade deadline. San Diego scored a total of five runs across a three-game defeat to the Cubs in the wild-card round, so the lack of offense clearly showed.

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Despite the best efforts of Pivetta, the rotation was an average group. Dylan Cease deserves credit for making 32 starts, but his 4.55 ERA was much higher than expected from someone who logged a 3.47 last season. Michael King was arguably the team’s ace in 2024, and he was effective when healthy this year, but shoulder and knee injuries limited him to 15 starts. Yu Darvish was the other notable disappointment. He didn’t debut until July due to an elbow injury and finished the regular season with a 5.38 ERA.

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Offseason outlook

Padres president and general manager A.J. Preller is arguably the most creative and aggressive executive in baseball, which makes San Diego one of the most interesting teams to follow each winter.

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Looking ahead to 2026, most infield spots are spoken for. Machado and Xander Bogaerts will cover the left side of the diamond, as both are on long-term deals. Although Bogaerts has been a marginal offensive player for two years now, it’s worth noting that he continues to field the shortstop position very well. Jake Cronenworth will likely be the second baseman, though he could slide to first, as Luis Arraez is heading to free agency. Fermin should get a chance to be the No. 1 catcher, and the odds that Díaz or Maldonado are back on the team are relatively low.

The outfield might already be settled for 2026. Tatis will surely be the right fielder, and Merrill is an excellent candidate for a bounce-back season while plying his trade in center. Preller will likely pick up the $6.5 million team option on Laureano’s contract, which will make the 31-year-old the every-day left fielder. Gavin Sheets will return as well, and he’ll make some appearances in the outfield while also often serving as the DH against right-handers.

Most of Preller’s offseason work will involve the rotation. Pivetta returns to anchor the group, and the club will try to get more out of the 39-year-old Darvish, who has three years left on his deal. Joe Musgrove, who missed all of 2025 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, should be ready to go on Opening Day. Unfortunately, the stability ends there, as Cease is headed to free agency, King is likely to decline his side of a mutual option, and trade-deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes will be a free agent as well. Randy Vásquez and JP Sears are available to eat innings but can’t be expected to do much more than that. In fact, after arriving at the deadline to provide rotation depth, Sears struggled to the point that he spent most of the stretch run in the minors. Overall, the rotation needs at least two more reliable members.

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Even with Suarez heading to free agency, the relief corps has an abundance of riches. Miller should slide into the full-time closer’s role, which he held with the Athletics. Adam and Morejon are under team control for one more season, while Estrada could remain with the Padres for four more years. It should be noted that Adam might have a delayed start to 2026 after undergoing September surgery to repair a ruptured quadriceps tendon. Yuki Matsui is also under contract, which gives manager Mike Shildt a second lefty to deploy, after Morejon. It’s worth noting that there have been some rumblings that the Padres will transition Miller back to being a starter, but for now, he can be counted as the anchor of the bullpen.

Prospects on the horizon

Preller’s aggressive trading, especially at the 2025 trade deadline, has left the prospect cupboard mostly bare in the San Diego system. The biggest departure this year was that of Leodalis De Vries, who is often ranked as a top-five prospect in baseball and was swapped to acquire Miller.

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Although there isn’t a prospect in the Padres’ system who can be counted on to help the team next year, a pair of right-handed pitchers, Miguel Mendez and Bradgley Rodriguez, could log some innings. A full-time reliever who has already made his major-league debut, Rodriguez has a chance to make the team out of spring training. Mendez only recently reached Double-A and is unlikely to be an option until the summer at the earliest.

Catcher Ethan Salas is the team’s top prospect, but he barely cracks the top 100 in most prospect rankings. He could spend all of 2026 in the minors, as he missed nearly all of this season due to a back injury and has played just 10 games in Double-A thus far.

Goals for 2026

The Padres have an aggressive front office, a pool of talented veterans and one of the shallowest prospect groups in baseball, which means they will keep the pedal on the floor in 2026 and continue their multiyear attempt to end the Dodgers’ dominant reign over the NL West and finally get back to the World Series.

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But as usual, keeping pace with Los Angeles will be no easy task. Preller must do major repair work on the San Diego rotation, and he must find a first baseman. With little to offer in trades, going the free-agent route might be an expensive necessity. Maximizing the value of Miller, whether in the rotation or bullpen, will be essential for this organization to take the next step from contender to champion.

Fantasy focus

There are plenty of Padres who will be selected in the early rounds of drafts. Tatis will likely have his name called in Round 2, while Machado, Pivetta and Miller will be selected in the range of Rounds 4-5. Merrill will present fantasy managers with an interesting choice, but his youth and upside are likely enough to warrant a spot in Round 7 or 8.

In the second half of drafts, Bogaerts, Laureano and Cronenworth will all become options. In some formats, grabbing an elite setup man such as Morejon in the final rounds will be a wise move.

This news was originally published on this post .

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