Indiana, Ohio State on Big Ten collision course and more College Football Playoff lessons

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The halfway point of the college football season has arrived with two undefeated teams in each Power 4 conference and 11 unbeatens overall in the FBS.

In the ACC, Big Ten and SEC, the remaining unbeatens do not play each other in the regular season. Thank you, super-sized conferences for making it harder than ever to determine a true champion.

What we learned about the College Football Playoff race in Week 7 is that inside tracks are emerging, along with a few scenarios that conferences should most definitely be rooting for — starting in the Big Ten.

Buckeyes and Hoosiers

Indiana is back in the CFP discussion, but the conversation should be different this time after the Hoosiers won 30-20 at Oregon.

“It shows the country that the IU football team, it’s a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza said. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”

Combine that with a 53-point victory against Illinois a few weeks back and Indiana shouldn’t be fielding strength of schedule questions this season like it did last year.

But the rest of Indiana’s schedule has opened up pretty nicely. Who would have guessed a home game in two weeks against UCLA would be the Hoosiers’ toughest test in the second half of their season? There are five teams in the Big Ten that are 0-3 in conference games and Indiana plays four of them. Same goes for No. 1 Ohio State.

November games against Penn State had been circled for both the Hoosiers and Buckeyes. Now, things couldn’t look more bleak in Happy Valley.

We get it, upsets happen. College football can be weird. There might not be a less reliable demographic than 18- to 22-year-olds. With that said, it will take a fairly dramatic turn of events in the Big Ten to avoid an Indiana-Ohio State championship game in which both teams arrive in Indianapolis on Dec. 6 with a CFP spot pretty much secured.

Ohio State has a 99 percent chance to make the CFP, according to Austin Mock’s projections as of Saturday evening. Indiana has the third-best odds at 83 percent.

The more fascinating part of the Big Ten race is the teams behind Ohio State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) and Indiana (6-0, 3-0).

USC (5-1) made a statement, beating Michigan 31-13 at the Coliseum to move to 3-1 in the conference.

“Several years ago, (this is) kind of what we all dreamed this would be,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said. “Coliseum lit up, two iconic programs going at it. Trojans coming off the field with the victory and the place totally on fire.”

The Trojans have the most interesting back half of the schedule in the league. Riley’s team is either going to make the Playoff or keep a team or two out of it, starting next week at Notre Dame (4-2). The Irish continue to dominate opponents after starting 0-2.

The Trojans then get a week off after that before going to Nebraska (5-1, 2-1). The Cornhuskers are far from trustworthy enough to pencil in games against Minnesota and Northwestern as victories, but there is a very real chance USC and Nebraska could play a high-stakes football game. A Rolling Stones concert might not have that much 1970s nostalgia.

The Huskers are another team that was supposed to be playing a big game against Penn State in November, but alas. The Nittany Lions are killing the Big Ten’s strength of schedule. Nebraska is sitting at 9 percent to make the CFP after winning at Maryland.

The week before Thanksgiving, USC goes to Oregon for their first matchup as Big Ten foes after decades of facing off in the Pac-12. The Trojans are probably the best team left on Oregon’s schedule, too — though Washington might have something to say about that.

Georgia Tech is 6-0 after a win at Virginia Tech on Saturday. (Brett Davis / Imagn Images)

Yellow Jackets and Hurricanes

The ACC has a similarly developing situation in which Georgia Tech (6-0, 3-0 ACC) and Miami (5-0, 1-0) could each get to the conference title game unbeaten.

For the ACC, which flirted with being a one-bid league in last year’s first 12-team CFP, that would be a highly desirable scenario.

The biggest obstacles? No. 2 Miami has Friday home game coming up against Louisville (4-1, 1-1) this week and road trips left to SMU (4-2, 2-0) and suddenly feisty Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes should be comfy favorites the rest of the way.

Georgia Tech’s road to Charlotte includes a trip to Duke (4-2, 3-0 ACC) next week and those plucky Panthers (4-2, 2-1). The season-ending rivalry game against Georgia from the SEC also looms.

This isn’t nearly as straightforward as the Big Ten race. Virginia (5-1) is 3-0 in ACC play — its loss to NC State was scheduled as a nonconference game — and very much alive. It plays neither Miami nor Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, Duke has a chance to displace both the Cavaliers and Yellow Jackets.

It would be good for the ACC if Miami can stay above the fray and for one of those other contenders to go on a run instead of knocking each other off.

Rebels and Aggies

Texas A&M and Ole Miss are both 6-0 overall and 3-0 in the SEC. That means both could conceivably get to Atlanta 12-0, but let’s be real.

Even though both have relatively manageable draws in the conference the rest of the way, there are more than enough traps to be confident nobody is arriving at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium unscathed.

The Rebels, who sleepwalked through a victory against Washington State on Saturday, go to Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC) next week and to Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1) the week after that.

The Aggies, who beat Florida on Saturday, still have road games at LSU (5-1, 2-1), Missouri (5-1, 1-1) and Texas (4-2, 2-1).

The SEC has nine teams at 6-0 or 5-1 overall, plus Texas at 4-2 after Arch Manning and the Longhorns bounced back with a 23-6 victory against Oklahoma. There is just not enough separation between the top teams to have any idea how this is going to play out.

Five more things to know about the CFP race

1. The Big 12 also has two unbeatens, but No. 9 Texas Tech (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) and No. 18 BYU (6-0, 3-0) play each other Nov. 8 in Lubbock, so there is no way for the conference to have two undefeated teams squaring off in a conference title game. The Cougars were written off when quarterback Jake Retzlaff transferred to Tulane in the summer while facing a potential honor code-related suspension. They stayed unbeaten Saturday night with a double-OT victory at Arizona, but the degree of difficulty jumps, starting with the Holy War against Utah next week. BYU also must play at Cincinnati, which is 5-1 overall but also 3-0 in the Big 12.

2. Texas Tech’s odds of making the CFP are 75 percent, but the parity throughout the rest of the conference could make the Big 12 a one-bid conference again.

3. Even with the loss to Indiana, Oregon (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) still has an 80 percent chance to make the CFP for the second straight year, according to Mock’s projections. The Ducks’ remaining opponents are Rutgers, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, USC and Washington.

4. The first of several big games in the American Conference went to USF. The Bulls dropped 63 points on North Texas on Friday. The next one comes in two weeks when USF goes to Memphis.

5. Cross fringe Group of 5 Playoff contender Old Dominion off the list. The Monarchs, who played Indiana tough to open the season and beat Virginia Tech, were thumped by Sun Belt rival Marshall on Saturday.

This news was originally published on this post .

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