Champions League quarter-final odds: Are Bayern Munich and Real Madrid worth the bet?

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With just eight teams left, the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League enters its most unforgiving stage yet: the quarter-finals.

Tuesday’s first legs promise high drama and even higher stakes, with Bayern Munich taking on a tactically disciplined Inter Milan and Arsenal facing European royalty in Real Madrid. For bettors, these matchups offer plenty of intrigue and potential value. So, from goal scorers to scorelines, here’s a look at the key narratives and plays.

Bayern Munich vs Inter Milan: Can Inzaghi’s men shake up the odds?

The last time these two met in the 2022/23 group stage, Bayern secured back-to-back 2-0 victories. Benjamin Pavard, who scored for the Germans in those matches, now finds himself in the opposite camp.

“I’m glad to meet Bayern again,” said Pavard, while Inter coach Simone Inzaghi acknowledged the challenge ahead: “It will be difficult, but we’ll play the games as we have done so far.”

Vincent Kompany’s side should be especially motivated to fight for the trophy, with the final set on home soil. But standing in their way is an Italian side known for their tactical discipline and clinical finishing. The Nerazzurri boast an elite defensive record, conceding just twice in 10 Champions League matches this season. Typically sitting deep, Inter rely on wing-backs Federico Dimarco and Denzel Dumfries to initiate rapid counterattacks – a setup that could catch Bayern off guard, given the Germans’ high press and possession-heavy style.

Battle of the strikers: Harry Kane vs Lautaro Martinez

Harry Kane has been relentless since swapping London for Bavaria in 2023, netting 59 goals in the Bundesliga. The Englishman’s ability to drop deep, dictate tempo, and link play makes him central to Bayern’s 4-2-3-1 formation. With Thomas Müller set to depart at season’s end, Kane has emerged as the club’s next talisman – and he’ll be itching to lead them into the semi-finals.

𝗛𝗔𝗥𝗥𝗬 𝗠𝗔𝗞𝗘𝗦 𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗘 𝗛𝗜𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗬! 📈💫

Harry Kane is the 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁-𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗘𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗺𝗮𝗻 in a single Champions League / European Cup campaign. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿⚽️🌪#FCBayern #MiaSanMia #UCL pic.twitter.com/qSh4vkcVRb

— FC Bayern (@FCBayernEN) March 12, 2025

Meanwhile, Lautaro Martínez is thriving as Inter’s captain and attacking leader. The Argentine has recorded three consecutive 20+ goal seasons in Serie A, topping the 2023/24 scoring charts with 24 goals. Alongside Marcus Thuram in Inzaghi’s 3-5-2, Martínez has the tools to Bayern’s high line and any defence left in the competition.

Betting insights: Where the value lies

Of all the quarter-finals, this could be the most difficult to predict. Bayern have the edge in head-to-head stats (four wins, one draw, two losses) and boast home advantage. However, Inter are arguably one of the most balanced teams left in the competition due to their rock-solid defence, efficient attack, and ability to grind out results – even as underdogs. After all, it hasn’t been that long since they finished runners-up in 2022/23.

Considering how close this tie could be, betting on goals instead of the outright result could be the smarter play. The bookmakers have Both Teams To Score: Yes at 8/11, reflecting the attacking potential on both sides. But the more lucrative value might lie in BTTS: No at 11/10 – especially if the Italians succeed in turning this tie into a war of attrition.

As for first goalscorer odds, Kane at 4/1 is hard to overlook, given his red-hot form and Bayern’s tendency to shine on home soil. If you’re considering backing an upset, Martínez at 7/1 offers excellent value for a player capable of punishing Bayern’s high defensive line.

Given how tactically astute both teams are – and the possibility they’ll spend the first leg sizing each other up – a 1-1 draw at 11/2 feels like a realistic outcome.

Arsenal vs Real Madrid: Will the kings of Europe reign supreme?

Real Madrid have never lost a quarter-final in London and will be eager to maintain that record when they visit the Emirates on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Arsenal aim to reach the semi-finals for the second time in club history and couldn’t have drawn a tougher opponent. The Gunners dismantled PSV last month in the round of 16 and will draw confidence from their prolific European form, having scored 25 goals in 10 matches. But will it be enough to overpower the reigning champions, who seem destined to win this competition year after year?

With Liverpool running away with the Premier League title and a third-round exit in the FA Cup at the hands of Manchester United, Europe is Arsenal’s last shot at silverware this season. The return of Bukayo Saka could be crucial in instrumenting a legitimate challenge to Madrid’s throne. The 23-year-old marked his comeback from a hamstring injury with a goal against Fulham midweek. While he may not start, his fearless dribbling and goal-scoring threat could make him a game-changing option off the bench.

Madrid are also powered by dazzling attackers, chiefly in Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo – a front four capable of producing moments of magic at the flick of a switch.

Key battle: Ødegaard orchestrates, Vinícius electrifies

If Arsenal are to outperform Los Blancos across two legs, they’ll need a standout performance from Martin Ødegaard. The captain and creative hub pulls the strings in the centre of the pitch for the Gunners, contributing 11 goals and 11 assists in all competitions last campaign. Calm under pressure and incisive between the lines, the Norwegian’s leadership will be vital in helping his team unlock Carlo Ancelotti’s defence.

But while Ødegaard dictates the rhythm, Vinícius dances to his own beat. The Brazilian has already scored in two Champions League finals and is arguably one the most dangerous one-on-one attackers in football. His acceleration and unpredictability give Madrid an X-factor that few teams can temper.

How the bookmakers see it

The Gunners have been nearly flawless in Europe and enjoy home advantage, yet they’re still underdogs against a ruthless Madrid side. With tight odds and plenty of narrative, the value could lie in betting the unexpected.

For example, a 1-1 correct score at 5/1 is worth considering. It reflects both teams’ quality while accounting for the typically cautious nature of a first-leg encounter. While many expect Madrid to go for an early knockout, recall how they struggled to assert themselves in the first leg against Manchester City before turning things around in the second. Madrid might take time to find their feet, with the real fireworks expected in the return leg at the Bernabéu.

When it comes to goalscorers, Mbappé at 6/1 to net anytime is a tempting pick. The Frenchman has netted 31 goals in all competitions this season, and is an unstoppable force on the counter. If you’re looking for a wildcard wager, Saka at 15/2 could be worth punting on, especially if he comes off the bench with something to prove.

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Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Harry Kane: Alex Grimm / Getty Images)

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