Vancouver Canucks trade targets, and could we see an offer sheet? Mailbag, part 1

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The stretch run for a probable non-playoff team can be tough on a fan base.

Especially a long-suffering fan base that entered the season with high hopes of seeing the Vancouver Canucks build on the success of last season and contend, only to have those hopes dashed over the course of a disappointing, drama-filled, injury-plagued campaign.

The Canucks’ games this weekend were a reminder of the sorts of games you don’t want to see your favourite team playing in. Even when something exciting happens — like five goals in a franchise record four and a half minutes against a moribund Anaheim Ducks team — there’s something that just feels a bit off. The pace is slower. The stakes are lower. The games feel inessential.

As we reckon with the imminent conclusion of the Canucks season and await their all but certain mathematical elimination from postseason contention, we figured it was high time to open up the mailbag and let our VIPs dictate our content this week.

We had over 100 mailbag submissions over the weekend. So many of our readers submitted questions that we’ve decided to split the mailbag into two parts to handle as many as we can, with part 2 running on Tuesday.

Let’s get into it.

Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.

Why does this team make me so sad? — Tristan M.

Because you care, Tristan. We all do.

This is Vancouver. In this city, you’re surrounded by both unparalleled natural beauty and roughly two million hockey fans that are pretty sure they could do a damn fine job of turning this hockey team around if only they were given a shot to be the GM.

Unfortunately, the Canucks falling short, often in painful and improbable ways, has become as predictable as the rain in November over the past 50 years. And obviously that’s where the pain comes from.

The seeming inevitability of disappointment doesn’t make the fan base care any less, though. In fact, if anything, it just adds to a sense of being pot-committed. “Given what I’ve already been through as a Canucks fan, what’s eternity really?”

The sadness is part of the point. It’s an indicator of the passion this city carries for this hockey team.

If the lows weren’t felt, then the highs wouldn’t matter either. And regardless, you’re sharing that experience — the good and the bad — with this entire community: your friends, your family, your fellow commenters at The Athletic, whoever you’re watching the game with randomly on a bar stool, whoever you’re high-fiving on Granville Street after an iconic win.

That connection is at the heart of why we all love this game. The pain is just a byproduct.

Will we ever see a goal scored by Pettersson and assisted by Pettersson and Pettersson? — Andreas L.

It seems inevitable that we will get a goal scored by one of Marcus Pettersson, Elias Pettersson (the centre) or Elias Pettersson (the defender) that the other two get credited with an assist on, but there are some limiting factors.

The first is that Marcus and Elias (the defender) are left-handed shooters, meaning they’re unlikely to be partnered up for any prolonged period.

A goal scored that all three receive credit for will most likely involve a partial change in which both Marcus and Elias (the defender) end up in the offensive zone together for a stint during which the Canucks score a goal, or a complete change during which time Elias (the centre) holds the puck for long enough that Elias (the defender) and Marcus can swap places on the ice without one of their other teammates getting a touch in the meantime, leading ultimately to a goal scored.

This brings us to the second limiting factor, which is availability. I’d legitimately expect that if all three Petterssons are in the lineup for all 82 games next season and if the Canucks score 230-250 goals, we’d eventually see a Pettersson from Pettersson and Pettersson goal get scored.

So it’s injury luck and some key offseason questions that may determine this. “Will the Canucks consider trading Elias (the centre) before his no-movement clause kicks in?” is going to be one of the biggest Canucks questions of the offseason, and that would complicate things, obviously. Likewise, as well as Elias (the defender) has played for the Canucks down the stretch, he’s still going to need to have an excellent summer and showing at training camp to secure a roster spot and become an everyday NHL player.

Drance, who are your top three “trade for” centres that you would target if we keep Petey?

Second, do you think we have a chance at Ehlers assuming he makes it to free agency? — Bill E.

It’s easy to forget, because the Canucks have both acquired a top-six centre (Elias Lindholm) in a trade and dealt two good ones (Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller) across the past 24 months, but generally good centres— who are obviously good centres at the time of the trade — aren’t dealt all that often. And I struggle to really come up with high-quality trade target options that are even realistic.

Here are three favourites from different buckets that are worth considering:

Older centre on a risky contract: Steven Stamkos. Any chance that the Nashville Predators just want a mulligan on their 2024 offseason? Any chance that Stamkos, who played for Rick Tocchet in Tampa Bay but has a full no-move clause, would be interested in playing in Canada (given that he declined to do so when he was an unrestricted free agent)? Maybe not, but Stamkos had a tough first season in Nashville. He’s still a lethal shooter and would bring leadership qualities to a team that could use them.

Younger potential star who hasn’t fully broken out yet: Connor McMichael. A player like Cole Perfetti, who had a pretty acrimonious negotiation with the Winnipeg Jets last summer culminating in a two-year bridge contract, would be another high-end version of this player type. McMichael, a gifted skater with both jam and offensive touch, has mostly played the wing for Washington this season, but was drafted as a centre and has played there in the past, including for much of last season. McMichael and Perfetti aren’t full-time centres for their current teams and would be enormously expensive to acquire, but if the Canucks are going to swing big, these two would be ideal targets.

Reliable prime-aged veteran with some term: Pavel Zacha. A player like Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who the Canucks have been linked to in the past, would also fit the bill here. The Boston Bruins are rebuilding; in all likelihood, Zacha is going to be either too expensive or too old by the time they’re ready to contend again, and that could make him available. At 6-foot-3 and over 200 pounds, Zacha is going to flirt with 50 points for a third consecutive season. He’d be a nice stylistic complement (as would Kotkaniemi) for Pettersson.

As for the Canucks pursuing Nikolaj Ehlers, I think the prices could get pretty wild on the top unrestricted free agents this summer. He’d be an exceptional fit in Vancouver if he were willing to consider it, but the Canucks seem to believe they’re more likely to bring in a top-line winger by acquiring one on the trade market than by landing one of the big names in unrestricted free agency.

Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies could be an attractive RFA target this offseason. (Rich Graessle / Getty Images)

Given all of the scuttlebutt about offer sheets potentially being a thing this year and the obvious needs for some forwards on in the lineup, do you see any obvious candidates for the Canucks to potentially offer sheet (and subsequently actually acquire the player) out there? The big names are likely to match, but anyone with Holloway/Broberg-ian profiles come to mind? — Kris L.

There are lots of potential offer sheet candidates I like, but I don’t believe the Canucks are likely to pursue restricted free agents as a Plan A this summer.

For one, while the club has some meaningful cap flexibility going into the offseason, its relative purchasing power is below average in NHL terms.

The Canucks currently project to have around $14 million in cap space with only a few spots remaining to fill out on their 23-man roster. Their cap positioning is decent, but they still rank among the bottom-10 teams in the league in terms of vacant cap space going into this offseason.

That relative lack of flexibility is going to make it difficult for the Canucks to throw the sort of money at a key restricted free agent that might actually help make a qualifying offer successful, especially compared to teams like the San Jose Sharks and Columbus Blue Jackets who project to have $40-plus million in cap space to throw around this summer.

I think the team views this similarly. The Canucks would be open to considering an offer sheet for the right target if it made sense and had a chance of succeeding, and perhaps a worthwhile opportunity will present itself this summer, but I don’t get the sense that the club views the offer sheet route as its best approach this offseason.

As for players worth considering strongly, Toronto’s Matthew Knies should be at the top of every team’s list given that the Maple Leafs have some expensive unrestricted players to extend (John Tavares and Mitch Marner) and that Knies absolutely has untapped star potential.

Do you think, given Aatu Räty’s strong play and development, that he could be a target for an offer sheet?

How much would Canucks be willing to pay to match? — Kevin A.

The probability of Aatu Räty receiving an offer sheet is pretty low, but I think it should be a lot higher.

Under the NHL’s offer sheet rules, if a team makes a restricted free agent player an offer below a certain annual average value threshold (the number was set a hair north of $1.5 million for the 2024 offseason, and will be higher by at least a couple hundred thousand this summer) then that player can change teams without compensation if their original team declines to exercise their right of first refusal and match the deal.

The Canucks, as we’ve seen, have a pretty set template that they like to utilize in signing players like Räty, who the organization believes in but have yet to prove that they’re everyday NHL players, to their second contracts. Those contracts tend to come in at a rate below $1 million, but on a one-way deal, for two years. This is what we’ve seen the club do with players like Jack Rathbone, Artūrs Šilovs, Nils Höglander, Akito Hirose and even Vasily Podkolzin over the past few seasons.

If past behaviour is an indicator of what we can expect, the Canucks are going to want to get Räty done at something like $900,000 on a two-year, one-way contract this summer. And given that the club has only about $14 million in cap space and multiple top-six forwards to acquire — whether it’s Pius Suter and Brock Boeser, or outside players in unrestricted free agency or via trade — the club will want to carefully manage its spending on Räty as well.

If I’m a team like the Calgary Flames, who are desperate for high quality young centres, and Räty remains unsigned into mid-July after Vancouver has committed a fair bit of their cap space to more expensive forwards up lineup, I’d very strongly consider tendering Räty or a player with that profile a one-year offer sheet at the maximum amount that I’m permitted to offer without having to return compensation in the event that the original team declines to match it.

I mean, what’s the potential downside? That the deal is matched and I’ve inconvenienced a division rival for multiple seasons (since it’s a one-year deal, Räty’s third contract would also have to be based on an elevated qualifying offer)? Sounds pretty good to me.

Meanwhile the potential benefit is that I land a player — without any acquisition cost — who I’m confident can at least be a faceoff ace fourth-liner in the short-term, and who I think may have upside to play in my middle six in the years to come, especially if he continues to develop and improve at the rate that he has over the past 12 months.

I don’t think the Canucks have to worry too much about this scenario, but honestly, the no compensation offer sheet is a weapon that I’ve long believed that NHL teams should use far more frequently than they do.

In addition to Räty, Toronto forwards Pontus Holmberg and Nick Robertson, Edmonton Oilers defender Ty Emberson and especially Colorado Avalanche defender Sam Malinski all stand out to me as solid candidates for this type of maneuver.

What are the odds Allvin/Rutherford trade this upcoming top-15 draft pick as a package to try and acquire a potential second-line center or impact top-six winger? 99.9%? 100%? — Nathan C.

We know that draft picks burn a hole in the pockets of Canucks management as a general rule, but I’m not sure that I’m convinced that the club will be motivated to move a top-15 draft pick at the 2025 NHL Draft.

While the Canucks have sent a lot of draft picks out the door during the Patrik Allvin and Jim Rutherford era, they’ve actually been pretty selective about dealing their own first-round picks. The pick in the Filip Hronek trade, for example, was a pick that Vancouver acquired from the New York Islanders for Bo Horvat. Just as the first-round pick in the Marcus Pettersson trade was acquired from the New York Rangers.

Rutherford and Allvin have only parted ways with their own first-round pick one time, and it was when the club dealt for Lindholm. At the time, the Canucks were in first place in the West at the NHL All-Star break.

Let’s also add a couple of underlying factors that may push the club to hold its 2025 first-round pick. First of all, the logic of the Miller trade puts Vancouver in a less win-now posture today than it was six months ago, and the club is well aware of it. This will be an all-in summer as the club looks to get back to contending, but I’d actually be somewhat surprised if the Canucks were willing to forgo a top-15 pick given their big picture circumstances.

Secondly, the exchange value of a mid-first rounder at the 2025 NHL Draft isn’t likely to be sufficient to land a game-changing piece. The depth of the 2025 draft class isn’t very highly regarded relative to some other years (like, for example, the 2023 class).

Given these dynamics, I’d actually be somewhat less surprised to see the Canucks deal their 2026 first-round pick (lottery protected, rolling over to 2027 unprotected) as part of a larger deal this summer as opposed to trading their 2025 first-round pick.

(Photo of Steven Stamkos: Bob Frid / Imagn Images)

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