MLB Player Prop Best Bet: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians, April 10

The Winsday greatness continued once more in our total yesterday, as the Marlins-Mets under calmly stayed below the 7 mark. For today, we’re going to make a rare destination into props.

In his first two starts of the season, Gavin Williams has not recorded more than five innings. Well, that’s about to change.

The Chicago White Sox are next on the docket for Williams. You may recall they lost more games last year than any team in Major League history, although on paper, they’re probably not the worst team of all time. On paper, they’re at least better than the 2003 Detroit Tigers (shoutout Wilfredo Ledezma).

Not much has changed for the White Sox in the new campaign. They set infamy a season ago in large part due to a weak offense, finishing dead last in team batting average (.221), on-base percentage (.278), slugging percentage (.340) and home runs (133).

One year later, Chicago is thus far actually worse through its first 11 ballgames, with a collective .202/.276/.315 slash line. In addition, they’ve only launched nine homers.

Sooner or later, those stats should begin to inflate at least closer to average production — but that’s not happening today.

The White Sox will be running into a very good starting pitcher who is in the midst of an ascension. Sure, Williams’ final line in his most recent start didn’t look great, but that could be attributed to a rare José Ramírez error that led to much of the damage (not to mention increased his pitch count) off the former first-round draft choice.

If you read our season future prop bets betting guide, you know I’m very invested in Williams this season with a large wager on his over strikeouts. For this particular bet, however, we’ll be looking at the number of outs set by the linemakers.

Surprisingly, not only is it set relatively low at 15.5, but tabbing the over also comes with plus odds.

Against a team that just had a historically awful year! And not much has changed, apparently.

Not only that, the White Sox will be giving a day off to their best player, Luis Robert Jr., this afternoon. Furthermore, Andrew Benintendi is out after being placed on the injured list with an abductor strain.

All you have to do is look at the woeful batting order Williams will be facing today. Dead-bat Nick Maton is serving as the leadoff hitter. Matt Thaiss is batting fourth and might be one of the worst cleanup hitters ever in an April game (you could maybe find worse in those late-season September games, though). Austin Slater sits behind him and is horrid to have as your No. 5 batter.

If Williams is going to paint a performance that gets his momentum and confidence going, it must be this one. The 25-year-old has displayed notable potential before, is fully healthy now, and after that eye-opening spring training he had, the breakout is coming sooner rather than later.

Pick: OVER 15.5 Outs (+106, FanDuel)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 9-5-1, +3.23 units
Over/Unders: 8-4-1
Props: 1-0
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Marlins-Mets Under 7 (WIN)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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