UFC 314 predictions — Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes: Fight card, odds, preview, prelims, expert picks

Alexander Volkanovski looks to recapture the featherweight championship he held for more than four years when he faces Diego Lopes in the main event of UFC 314 on Saturday night. The two men will battle over the belt that was left vacant after Ilia Topuria made the decision to move to the lightweight division.

Volkanovski has lost back-to-back fights by knockout, suffering a second loss to Islam Makhachev in an attempt to win the lightweight title and then being knocked out by Topuria in February 2024 to lose the belt. While Volkanovski has lost three of his four most recent fights, Lopes enters the fight riding a five-fight winning streak.

In the co-main event, Paddy Pimblett takes on the biggest challenge of his career when he faces all-action fighter Michael Chandler in a lightweight battle. Pimblett’s brash personality has made him a “love him or hate him” fighter but he has shown the skills to back up his talk to this point in his career, including racking up a 6-0 record in the Octagon.

UFC 314 predictions, odds, best bets: Main event prop, Paddy Pimblett among top picks to consider

Brent Brookhouse

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s look closer at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 314 fight card, odds

• Alexander Volkanovski -130 vs. Diego Lopes +110, vacant featherweight title
• Paddy Pimblett -155 vs. Michael Chandler +130, lightweights
• Yair Rodriguez -195 vs. Patricio Pitbull +165, featherweights
• Jean Silva -270 vs. Bryce Mitchell +220, featherweights
• Nikita Krylov -195 vs. Dominick Reyes +165, light heavyweights
• Sean Woodson -165 vs. Dan Ige +140, featherweights
• Virna Jandiroba -140 vs. Yan Xiaonan +120, women’s strawweights
• Chase Hooper -800 vs. Jim Miller +550, lightweights
• Darren Elkins -380 vs. Julian Erosa +300, featherweights
• Michal Oleksiejczuk -205 vs. Sedriques Dumas +170, middleweights
• Sumudaerji -195 vs. Mitch Raposo +165, flyweights
• Marco Tulio -400 vs. Tresean Gore +300, middleweights
• Nora Cornolle -170 vs. Hailey Cowan +145, women’s bantamweights

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Here are your pick makers: Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Shakiel Mahjouri (writer), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

UFC 314 picks, predictions

Volkanovski vs. Lopes

Campbell: For all of the advantages that the former champion Volkanovski will have in terms of experience and technique, it’s hard to bet against youth, power, momentum and the hunger of a fighter who is one victory away from transforming his financial future and achieving his goals. This is the betting conundrum facing oddsmakers, who ultimately settled upon presenting Volkanovski as a slight favorite. Yet, ultimately, the fact that Volkanovski has lost three of his last four and has been stopped in each of his last two fights simply can’t be ignored, even if the two fights came against the two best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet (with one coming on short notice). For all of the defensive lapses that the aggressive Lopes brings to the table, there has never been more pressure on Volkanovski’s chin than right now at 36. 

Mahjouri: Never before has someone won a UFC championship coming off consecutive title fight losses. Volkanovski is equipped to be the first to accomplish the feat. There are reasons to doubt Volkanovski after two knockout losses, but his decision to take 14 months off inspires hope. Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight fighter. He’s almost impenetrable at this weight class. Lopes wields impressive KO power, but doesn’t have the technical prowess to lead Volkanovski into a fatal blow. Watching Volkanovski survive deep submission attempts against Brian Ortega gives me comfort that he can avoid Lopes’ submissions. Lopes is an impressive dual KO and submission threat, but lacks the refined pieces in between to beat Volk. I’ll side with the former champ by decision.

Chandler vs. Pimblett

Campbell: This is the moment of truth for the 30-year-old native of Liverpool, England, whose immense popularity has previously eclipsed his perceived level of fighting ability through six successful walks to the Octagon. Knowing how close a victory would place him to the possibility of a lightweight title shot, this is the most important fight to date of Pimblett’s career to date. And there are many reasons to believe Pimblett can pass this test, even with the five-round setup as the co-main event. Chandler has lost four of his last five fights and is closing in on his 39th birthday. Pimblett, a new father of twins, has also entered in the best shape of his life and has admitted that his old ways of gaining weight between bouts and relying upon his talent won’t be enough at this level. As long as Pimblett survives the inevitable early storm from Chandler and avoids entering into a firefight, a late submission remains a plausible path to victory for Pimblett. 

Mahjouri: Another Pimblett fight, another time I underestimate his potential. The challenge in predicting this fight is gauging Pimblett’s rate of improvement with Chandler’s decline. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pimblett won, but I’m not sure their skill trajectories overlap yet. Submissions and power strikes are Pimblett and Chandler’s A-games, respectively. Chandler draws confidence from Charles Oliveira’s inability to submit him in two fights. Pimblett sees Chandler’s submission loss to Dustin Poirier as an exploitable weakness. Pimblett is a dynamic striker but lacks refinement. Chandler has a sturdy, if slowly diminishing, chin and has gunned it out with strikers far more dangerous than Pimblett. The division is more interesting if Pimblett wins, but Chandler’s aggression should draw bad habits from Pimblett that leave him exposed. I’ll take Chandler via knockout.

Rodriguez vs. Pitbull

Campbell: Just like his longtime rival and fellow Bellator MMA legend Chandler, the expectations for Patricio Pitbull’s UFC career is that fans should be ready for an explosive good time but not necessarily a long one. At 37, Pitbull is no longer the most elite version of himself as a former two-division champion. But he welcomes a 32-year-old Yair Rodriguez who is coming off of consecutive stoppage defeats after briefly capturing the division’s interim belt. If there was ever a fight for Pitbull to let it all hang out and look to make the most of an opportunity he has thought about and hoped for as long as he has been fighting, this is the fight. The added fact that Pitbull could find himself on the verge of a title shot if he wins impressively is enough reason to look at him as a live underdog on Saturday.

Brookhouse: Pitbull simply isn’t the fighter he once was and Rodriguez is not a comfortable first opponent for him in the Octagon. Between Rodriguez’s height and reach and Pitbull closing in on 38, this feels like it could be a long night for the multi-time former Bellator champion. If Pitbull can conjure a bit of his old magic and pressure Rodriguez enough to nullify the reach advantage, there are paths to victory but I’m not ready to place my faith in the hope that Pitbull can turn back the clock on Saturday.