NBA picks, odds for Mavericks vs. Kings, Heat vs. Bulls: Best bets, including Domantas Sabonis prop

Now that the 2025 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

The narratives surrounding these teams post-deadline haven’t been entirely fair. While Chicago’s 17-13 record is far better than Miami’s 12-21 mark, their net ratings are within one point of each other. The difference, mostly, has been their wildly disparate clutch performance in that time. The Bulls rank second in the NBA in post-deadline clutch net rating at +29.4, while the Heat rank last at -34.4. Of course… postseason games tend to more closely simulate clutch conditions than regular-season games do. 

The Bulls have spent the past few months forging an identity and figuring out their half-court offense. The Heat haven’t really done that since losing Jimmy Butler. It’s still a team adrift, and that’s not one I’m going to trust in an elimination game. The Pick: Bulls -1 (via Caesars)

Do yourself a favor and avoid the game lines here. The injuries here just make any number unreliable. Here’s something I like better: Domantas Sabonis has a bit of an inflated reputation head-to-head against Anthony Davis because he won their first 10 head-to-head matchups. Statistically, however, he’s been far from dominant. Even if you ignore the two games in which he played less than 20 minutes, Sabonis has only reached 20 points against Davis three times in 12 tries. That feels pretty notable with his point total line sitting at 19.5, and remember, Davis has more frontcourt support now than he did in Los Angeles. I’m expecting a relatively quiet scoring night from Sabonis, with more of Sacramento’s offense coming from DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. The Pick: Sabonis Under 19.5 Points (via Caesars)