The outlook for the 2025 ACC football season is either easy to figure out or extremely difficult, depending on your position in the conference. This is a conference that is in Year 2 of its 17-team era, coming off of a season that it joined the Big Ten and SEC as the only conferences to put multiple teams in the College Football Playoff.
The ACC, at least on paper here in late March, has tiers that can help sort out the overall landscape in the league. If we are to use the way-too-early power ratings view of things, there are four teams at the top of the conference expected to compete for the two spots in the conference championship game. Those teams — Clemson, Miami, SMU and Louisville — would all be notable, if not significant favorites, on a neutral field against anyone else in the conference. On the other end of the spectrum, there are three teams whose combination of returning production and recent results suggest that they would be fighting an uphill battle against most everyone else in the conference except when they play each other.
Then there’s the bloated middle, where as many as 10 teams in the ACC can say that they would be neither a favorite nor an underdog of a touchdown or more on a neutral field against any of the other teams in this tier. For the purposes of making win total picks, that means as much as half of a team’s conference schedule could be filled with “toss-up” games that are often decided by a winning play or losing mistake in the thick of a Saturday afternoon in the fall.
The oddsmakers seem to view the conference the same way. There are only four teams that have win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook above 7.5 wins. Meanwhile there are 11 teams whose win totals fall between 5.5 wins and 7.5 wins with varying prices indicating a lean to the over or the under. So if the win totals are to be believed, or proven correct this fall, the ACC has four teams that can contend for the College Football Playoff, a couple of teams that will almost certainly fall short of a bowl game and nearly a dozen programs who fight for every yard in hopes of ending up 8-4 and not 5-7.
If you’re into competition and uncertainty, the ACC might be the conference for you. We’ve done the unthinkable given the circumstances and predicted the outcome of every single game involving an ACC football team, with some analysis on what it would mean for their win total at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Over/under 5.5 wins
Wins: Fordham, at Stanford, Cal, UConn, Georgia Tech
Losses: at Michigan State, at Pitt, Clemson, at Louisville, Notre Dame, SMU, at Syracuse
Analysis: While Bill O’Brien is moving forward with Grayson Lambert at quarterback with Thomas Castellanos off to Florida State, the Eagles have arguably bigger concerns on defense, where a stellar defensive front from a year ago is replacing game-changers along the line. The schedule does Boston College no favors, drawing a road trip to Michigan State and Notre Dame out of conference while having to face some of the toughest teams in conference with dates against Clemson, Louisville and SMU. The quality of this team might not be that far off from last year’s 7-win squad, but a step back in the win column seems likely. Pick: Under 5.5 (-130)
Cal
Over/Under 6.5 wins
Wins: at Oregon State, Texas Southern, at San Diego State, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, at Stanford
Losses: Minnesota, at Boston College, at Virginia Tech, at Louisville, SMU
Analysis: New offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin has a pair of intriguing options at quarterback with the veteran experience of Ohio State transfer Devin Brown and the projected promise of true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who flipped from Oregon just weeks after signing with the Ducks in the early signing period. It’s important to get that position right because the schedule provides the chance to go 3-1 in the non-con and string together a respectable conference showing with no Clemson or Miami on the schedule and some coin-flip games (Duke, North Carolina) taking place on their home turf. Pick: Over 6.5 (+116)
Clemson
Over/Under 9.5 wins
Wins: LSU, Troy, at Georgia Tech, Syracuse, at North Carolina, at Boston College, SMU, Duke, Florida State, Furman
Losses: at Louisville, at South Carolina
Analysis: This Clemson team brings back a ton of the key pieces from last year’s ACC championship and College Football Playoff team, plus an upgraded staff with the addition of Tom Allen as defensive coordinator. Cade Klubnik in Year 3 with Garrett Riley is going to be on all of the relevant preseason watch lists, and the Tigers are a deserved favorite to win the league again in 2025. We’ve handed a couple losses out in this projection to coaches and teams who got the better of Clemson last season, but this is a comfortable over with the potential to ladder up to 11 wins or more. Pick: Over 9.5 (+108)
Duke
Over/Under 6.5 wins
Wins: Elon, at Tulane, NC State, Georgia Tech, at UConn, Virginia, Wake Forest
Losses: Illinois, at Syracuse, at Cal, at Clemson, at North Carolina
Analysis: After finishing in a tie for fourth-place in the ACC standings with a 5-3 conference record and nine wins overall in the regular season, it’s looking like it will be a bit of a white knuckle road to match that success in 2025. That’s because while there’s only two obvious losses on the schedule (Illinois, at Clemson) there are six games that we have declared as toss-ups with the expectation that the Blue Devils will not be more than a one-score favorite or underdog in those contests. If Duke can survive the early part of the schedule with some challenging opponents and time-zone-hopping travel, there are a couple winnable games in November that can secure bowl eligibility and even hit this over. Pick: Over 6.5 (-162)
Florida State
Over/Under 7.5 wins
Wins: East Texas A&M, Kent State, at Virginia, Pitt, at Stanford, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, at NC State
Losses: Alabama, Miami, at Clemson, at Florida
Analysis: While Florida State made history as the first-ever 17th place team in the ACC standings with a 1-7 conference record, there is every reason to believe there will be a bounce back up with more wins in the league in 2025. Unfortunately, going from 2-10 to 10-2 overall seems less likely when the schedule is bookended by a visit from Alabama on Aug. 30 and a trip to The Swamp to play Florida on Nov. 29. While it’s impossible to know what both the Seminoles and Gators will look like in late November, we do know that the Crimson Tide are 8.5-point favorites in Tallahassee for the opener, and that line should tell you how Florida State is viewed compared to the best teams in the country. With that in mind, we’re predicting a few losses to the best teams on the schedule but a lot of taking care of business against teams projected to be at the bottom of the ACC. Pick: Over 7.5 (+106)
Georgia Tech
Over/Under 7.5 wins
Wins: at Colorado, Gardner-Webb, Temple, at Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt
Losses: Clemson, at Duke, NC State, at Boston College, Georgia
Analysis: Brent Key has built great momentum since taking over as head coach at Georgia Tech; being a bowl team is now the expectation after a four-season bowl drought from 2019-22. But hitting this number is going to be difficult against a schedule that is annually among the ACC’s toughest due to regular appearances from Georgia and Clemson. The ceiling for his team could be knocking on the door of ACC title contention, as every non-Clemson opponent is beatable, but winning all seven of your toss-up games doesn’t happen often. In the average, we’ve got this as a respectable 7-5 campaign that falls slightly under the win total. Pick: Under Under 7.5 (-105)
Louisville
Over/Under 8.5 wins
Wins: Eastern Kentucky, James Madison, Bowling Green, at Pitt, Virginia, Boston College, Cal, Clemson, at SMU
Losses: at Miami, at Virginia Tech, Kentucky
In total, the Cardinals were a bit of a chaos team last season. They were good enough to be within seven points of Notre Dame, SMU and Miami, just couldn’t come up with the plays late to win any of those games. Then they beat Clemson by double-digits in Death Valley, only to turn around two weeks later in Palo Alto with a stunning loss at Stanford. The roster has once again gotten a major influx of transfer portal talent, but at this point my assumption is Jeff Brohm will once again take the new pieces and assemble a squad capable of beating anyone in the conference. A 5-0 start should be the expectation, but in the name of chaos we know that some losses (and may unexpected ones) will be coming in the second half of the schedule. Pick: Over 8.5 (-170)
Miami
Over/Under 8.5 wins
Wins: Bethune-Cookman, USF, Florida State, Louisville, Stanford, Syracuse, NC State, at Virginia Tech, at Pitt
Losses: Notre Dame, Florida, at SMU
Analysis: Five of the first eight games on this schedule are potential losses for a Hurricanes team that loses Cam Ward but still has the requisite talent level to compete for an ACC title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. If Carson Beck returns to full health, he absolutely has the tools to keep Miami’s offense productive and prolific, but the strength of this roster — and the reason why Mario Cristobal can take the next step and win an ACC title — is along the lines of scrimmage. Miami will be in every single game it plays, it’s just the odds say it’ll pick up a couple of losses along the way. Pick: Over 8.5 (-188)
North Carolina
Over/Under 7.5 wins
Wins: Charlotte, Richmond, at UCF, Virginia, at Syracuse, Stanford, at Wake Forest, Duke
Losses: TCU, Clemson, at Cal, at NC State
Analysis: The Bill Belichick era will be one of the most intriguing storylines of the entire college football season, and the good news for the Tar Heels is the schedule sets up to stack some wins while the coach and program are facing unusually high scrutiny for Year 1. Outside of Clemson, and possibly TCU, there isn’t a team on the schedule that steps off the bus with a significant talent advantage against the Tar Heels even as the roster has undergone serious reconstruction through the coaching change. Resiliency will be needed for this projection to play out, though, as we’re calling for a 3-3 start to the season before picking up just enough wins in in October and November to go over the win total. Pick Over 7.5 (-105)
NC State
Over/Under 6.5 wins
Wins: ECU, Virginia, at Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Campbell, Georgia Tech, North Carolina
Losses: at Duke, at Notre Dame, at Pitt, at Miami, Florida State
Analysis: NC State stood to benefit from the ACC getting rid of divisions as it no longer faced an annual slate of Clemson, Florida State and Louisville in conference play. And while Clemson isn’t on the schedule for 2025, this is still a daunting run of opponents that includes road trips to Miami and Notre Dame and a visit from Florida State in late November. After exacting revenge on ECU for the bowl game loss last season, look for CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack offense to start ACC play strong before some tough road trips in the back half of the schedule could keep them outside of conference title game contention. Still, it’s a team and a season that should be set to meet the consistency that NC State has enjoyed during the Dave Doeren era. Pick: Over 6.5 (+110)
Pitt
Over/Under 5.5 wins
Wins: Duquesne, Central Michigan, at West Virginia, Boston College, NC State, at Stanford
Losses: Louisville, at Florida State, at Syracuse, Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech, Miami
Analysis: Last year started 7-0 and ended with six straight losses, so it brings me no joy to once again inform any unaware Pitt fans that the back half of the schedule includes yet another run of tough opponents that could throw cold water on late-October excitement. The key to hitting this over and reaching bowl eligibility will be a win in Morgantown against West Virginia, which on paper is a true coin flip but could include an edge for Pitt with the game coming so early in Rich Rod’s tenure. Pick: Over 5.5 (-152)
SMU
Over/Under 8.5 wins
Wins: East Texas A&M, Missouri State, at TCU, Syracuse, Stanford, at Wake Forest, Miami, at Boston College, at Cal
Losses: Baylor, at Clemson, Louisville
Analysis: Rhett Lashlee is 16-0 in conference games across the last two seasons, and while SMU would really have preferred a more successful College Football Playoff debut, there is every reason to think the Mustangs are a CFP contender in 2025 and moving forward. SMU rates one of the top-tier teams in the ACC and we’re projecting it will handle business as such, but unfortunately the other three teams in that top tier are all on the Mustangs schedule. As long as SMU can split its in-state Big 12 games against Baylor and TCU, it should be well positioned to make a run at nine wins, with the ceiling to hit double-digits and contend again for an ACC championship in 2025 after finishing as the runner-up a year ago. Pick: Over 8.5 (-142)
Stanford
Over/Under 3.5 wins
Wins: at Hawaii, San José State
Losses: at BYU, Boston College, at Virginia, at SMU, Florida State, at Miami, Pitt, at North Carolina, Cal, Notre Dame
Analysis: In case you missed it, Stanford fired Troy Taylor this month after internal investigations into his behavior and treatment of staff. The football program is in flux, the future of the head coaching position is unknown — general manager Andrew Luck said on March 25 that “an acting coach may be named for the 2025 season” — and now the school must try to keep its roster together with a spring transfer portal window coming in late April. None of these developments inspire confidence in Stanford being ready to take a step forward in the win column after back-to-back three-win seasons. Pick: Under 3.5 (-118)
Syracuse
Over/Under 5.5 wins
Wins: UConn, Colgate, Duke, Pitt, Boston College
Losses: Tennessee, at Clemson, at SMU, at Georgia Tech, North Carolina, at Miami, at Notre Dame
Analysis: Fran Brown had a fantastic debut with the Orange, winning 10 games behind one of the most prolific passing attacks in the conference with a win against top-10 Miami in the last week of the regular season. Syracuse had one of the more manageable schedules in the league and took advantage, but now comes the snap back with a slate that will make extremely difficult to replicate last season’s success. It is possible that Syracuse has five teams in the preseason AP Top 25 poll on its schedule, including four teams who were in the College Football Playoff a year ago. Combine that schedule with the loss of Kyle McCord, LeQuint Allen and three of the top four pass-catchers, and it’s easy to see why this will be a much tougher season in 2025. Pick: Under 5.5 (-110)
Virginia
Over/Under 5.5 wins
Wins: Coastal Carolina, William & Mary, Stanford, Washington State
Losses: at NC State, Florida State, at Louisville, at North Carolina, at Cal, Wake Forest, at Duke, Virginia Tech
Analysis: Tony Elliott was able to celebrate some wins last season, like getting a top-25 victory under his belt and seeing both the conference (3) and overall (5) win total improve from the previous two seasons. But the on-paper outlook for taking the next step looks tough given how many games will likely see Virginia as an underdog. Elliott is 4-19 as an underdog with an average margin of defeat of 11.6 points per game in those situations. Chandler Morris arrives via North Texas by way of TCU and Oklahoma, providing some real experience and potential for impressive production at the quarterback position, but there just aren’t enough obvious wins to call for bowl eligibility. Pick: Under 5.5 (+114)
Virginia Tech
Over/Under 6.5 wins
Wins: ODU, Wofford, Wake Forest, Cal, Louisville, at Virginia
Losses: South Carolina, Vanderbilt, at NC State, at Georgia Tech, at Florida State, Miami
Analysis: Back-to-back games against SEC opponents makes for a tough start to a pressure-packed season for Brent Pry, who had the Hokies bowling again in 2024 but fell short of preseason expectations with a 6-7 record. Virginia Tech showed multiple times how close the Hokies were to being one of the best teams in the league, but the inability to convert those close calls against quality competition into wins was troubling. We’re calling for at least one victory Virginia Tech in an underdog spot, but mostly a season of holding serve that ends in a bowl but maybe not the one that Hokies fans are hoping for given Year 3 of Kyron Drones in Blacksburg. Pick: Under 6.5 wins (-134)
Wake Forest
Over/Under 4.5 wins
Wins: Kennesaw State, Western Carolina, Delaware, at Oregon State, at Virginia
Losses: NC State, Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, SMU, at Florida State, North Carolina, at Duke
Analysis: Enough pieces stuck around after Dave Clawson’s retirement that new head coach Jake Dickert hasn’t needed to totally overhaul the roster, but there also hasn’t been so much of an influx to suggest the Demon Deacons have the talent to take a huge step forward after going 4-8 a year ago. Still, the presence of two Conference USA teams on the schedule — Delaware joins the league this season — and an FCS foe should allow for some success at home that can generate positivity and if Wake Forest can pull off an upset or two it could potentially be a bowl team. Pick: Over 4.5 (-110)
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