Raptors predictions revisited: The small victories, big losers and Drake

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I am, somehow, getting worse at this. Don’t let your kids grow up to make publicly available sports predictions.

Before this Toronto Raptors season began, I paraphrased Olivia Rodrigo in acknowledgement that making predictions was a bad idea. This had been proven a year earlier, when my 15 increasingly bold predictions resulted in a 4-7-3-1 record (correct, incorrect, spiritually correct but factually incorrect, unknowable Drake predictions). Still, I took the leap this year.

Well, with seven games left, I’m ready to rule on all of these predictions. My final record: 2-10-2-1. I was basically the Charlotte Hornets of predictions.

A reminder: The number in parentheses refers to how bold I thought these predictions were before the year. The lower the number, the more confident I was that the predictions would be right. The lesson, as always, is never to be confident about anything.

Correct

The Raptors will win six or fewer of their first 20 games. (1)

I thought this was a gimme, and it obviously hit. However, it was closer than I would have thought, given the absences of Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley for the majority of this stretch. The Raptors went 5-15, going 1-5 in one-score games.

That stretch was even tougher than I imagined at the start of the year, by the way. Thanks to Detroit’s excellent season, it featured 11 games against teams that will finish in the top six in their conference and only two games against teams that will miss the Play-In Tournament (wins against the 76ers and Pelicans).

A Raptors second-round pick or two-way player will emerge as a viable rotation player for the future. (3)

Jamal Shead is third in total minutes since Jan. 1. He had a poor plus-minus to start the year, but it’s been near neutral since the All-Star break. He has lots of room to grow offensively, but the 45th pick from last June’s draft will be in line to back up Quickley at training camp.

Incorrect

Barnes will break his franchise record for triple-doubles in a season. (2)

Barnes came close a few times early in the season, with 21-12-9, 31-14-7, 23-10-9 and 19-8-14 stat lines. Ultimately, Barnes recorded just one triple-double with 24 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists at the end of March against Miami. With his minutes limited, he is unlikely to go on a run to close the season.

The Raptors will finish in the bottom corner of the league in defensive rating. (5)

The Raptors will finish in the league’s middle third in offensive rating. (8)

The former has been the best story of the year, and I was wrong here. I thought the defence would fall off a cliff when Jakob Poeltl was off the floor. Instead, the Raptors have managed to be competent defensively without Poeltl, heading into Sunday’s play ranked 16th in the league. I’m not sure how real this is, as the Raptors have the best defence in the league since the All-Star break, and the schedule has become very easy. But things were trending positively before that.

Meanwhile, the Raptors’ high assist percentage (third in the league) still hasn’t translated to a good offence (26th). Disappointing 3-point shooting seasons from Gradey Dick, Barnes, Ja’Kobe Walter and Quickley’s injuries ended the team’s ability to keep pace from deep. Brandon Ingram’s impact on the offence will be the on-court item to watch at the start of next season.

One of Jonathan Mogbo or Walter will play more pre-February minutes with Raptors 905 than the Raptors, and Mogbo will leave the year looking like the better prospect. (6)

This was one of a few predictions ruined by early-season injuries. Mogbo played 364 total minutes with Raptors 905. He passed that in December with the Raptors. Walter played only 156 minutes with Raptors 905, despite starting the season with a shoulder injury that delayed his debut.

On the last front, Mogbo looked good early in the year, but his offensive shortcomings stood out as the year progressed. He is still an intriguing prospect. But Walter’s toughness and defensive activity were obvious in his rookie season, and he is a rotation lock for next year.

RJ Barrett’s true shooting percentage of 61.5 in 32 games with the Raptors will turn out to be more true than not. (7)

Heading into the season’s final two weeks, Barrett has a true shooting percentage — which factors in 3-point percentage and free-throw attempts — of 55.3. That is closer to 53.5 percent, which he posted in 2020-21, his previous career high, than 61.5. But if you take away his first month of the season, when he largely played without Barnes and Quickley, he is at 56.6 percent. Lamentably, that is still a bit closer to his previous high than last year’s Raptors run.

However, Barrett has a 60.1-percent mark with Barnes on the floor. That complicates the long-term picture with Ingram coming to Toronto, but shows how much Barrett benefits from Barnes’ screening and playmaking.

Raptors 905 will make the final four in the G League. (9)

Another prediction foiled by injuries. I thought a healthy Raptors team would translate to the likes of Mogbo, Shead and Walter spending a lot of time with Raptors 905.

That did not happen, and they went 13-21 in the regular season, including 1-9 in their last 10 games once the Raptors started to rely even more on their young players.

Quickley will lead the team in usage percentage. (10)

The number of games they have played without one another confuses matters, but Quickley is a decisive third behind Barrett and Barnes. Even if you take away the early part of the season when Barrett played without the other two, Barrett leads at 27.4 percent, with Barnes and Quickley behind him at 26 and 24.3 percent, respectively.

Barnes will be an All-Star (as an injury replacement, again). (12)

I clearly meant that Trae Young will be an All-Star (as an injury replacement, again). Why would there be a Young prediction amidst a bunch of Raptors predictions? Please do not question my methods.

The Raptors will trade Poeltl. (13)

This was a long-shot prediction, and from what I understand, it didn’t come close to happening. The Raptors are more likely to extend Poeltl in the offseason than trade him. His long-term fit on a Barnes-led team remains questionable to me because of how it limits offensive spacing, but he is a good player, and could help the Raptors be much better last year. This was Poeltl’s best NBA season, arguably. This will be the ninth-year veteran’s seventh season with five or more win shares.

Drake won’t attend a Raptors game in Toronto this season. (15)

I admittedly forgot to factor in Vince Carter’s jersey retirement in this prediction, a guaranteed Drake appearance. He attended two or three more games in between trips to Australia or wherever. Bad year for The Boy.

As is the tradition with my Drake predictions, I will declare, “Not wrong, just early.”

Not a great year for the Raptors, and arguably, an even worse year for Drake. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)

Spiritually correct, factually incorrect

Quickley will finish the season averaging the second-most 3-pointers per game in franchise history. (11)

Quickley is currently at 6.8 attempts per game, which is 15th in Raptors history — behind four Fred VanVleet seasons, six Kyle Lowry seasons, two Gary Trent Jr. seasons, among others. However, if you switch to a per-minute basis and only include seasons in which Raptors averaged six or more attempts per game, Quickley’s season ranks fifth behind two seasons from VanVleet and one apiece from Dee Brown and C.J. Miles.

That is kind of close.

The Raptors will finish in the bottom four of the Eastern Conference (specifically, 27-55, 12 in the East). (14)

Within this prediction, I said the Raptors would finish behind at least two of the five Eastern Conference teams with lower preseason over/under totals than the Raptors (29.5) had. As it turns out, that was correct. I even nailed the two teams: Detroit and Chicago. Charlotte, Brooklyn and Washington were worse than the Raptors, as I predicted.

I did not account for the hilarity that is the Philadelphia 76ers’ 2024-25 season. I accept no responsibility for that, and declare myself more right than wrong.

Spiritually incorrect, factually correct

The Raptors will trade Bruce Brown but won’t get a first pick, causing fans to lose their minds. (4)

In case you thought I was trying to goose my record, I will not accept the win here. Technically, the Raptors traded Brown and did not get a first-round pick back (in fact, they surrendered a first-round pick in the transaction). And yes, some fans lost their minds.

But I was picturing a return of a second-round pick or two, not a player with Ingram’s pedigree. I am a fair arbiter.

(Top photo of Jamal Shead: Kevin Sousa / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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