MLB Over/Under Bet: Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles, April 2

If at first you don’t succeed, try again. That mantra proved true in getting back our “W” last night in the Tigers-Mariners series after a defeat the previous evening. But now it’s back to the East Coast.

At Camden Yards, the Red Sox and Orioles will resume their three-game series after a rare Tuesday off. This was the result of Baltimore playing its home opener Monday, which usually includes the following day as a backup in case of inclement weather.

The Orioles began their 2025 home slate with an 8-5 victory over their division rivals and are now 3-2 on the season. Boston, meanwhile, has dropped four in a row since its Opening Day win and is a surprising 1-4.

The Red Sox will have their best pitcher on the mound in hopes of avoiding another loss. Garrett Crochet is in his first year with the club after being acquired from the White Sox via trade and just signed a six-year, $170 million extension Tuesday.

The investment of surrendering a few highly ranked prospects for Crochet’s services is already paying off. In his team debut last Thursday, the 6-foot-6 left-hander kept a solid Texas Rangers lineup in check with five effective innings of two-run ball, leading to Boston’s only win so far.

Although Crochet uncharacteristically struck out only four in that outing, remember that he’s still building strength into the form that will likely see him exceed the 200-strikeout plateau by season’s end. He did that in just 146 innings a year ago and had 30 strikeouts in 15 2/3 spring training innings.

Don’t be fooled by Crochet’s 6-12 record last season. One, he was pitching for arguably the worst team in baseball. More importantly, he was put on a pitch count in the final three months of the season, making it impossible to qualify for wins if he wasn’t permitted to go five innings.

When he was allowed a normal leash in the first half, he posted a 3.07 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 12.6 K/9 in 20 starts leading into the All-Star break. To no one’s surprise, those numbers earned him his first Midsummer Classic appearance.

The Tennessee product is the real deal and will continue producing at a high level. He did exactly that in his lone meeting with the Orioles last year, spinning six excellent frames with 11 strikeouts and just one walk. That game easily went under, by the way.

If there’s a time to take an under involving Baltimore’s lineup, it’s probably now, as Gunnar Henderson remains sidelined on the injured list for one more day. The Orioles also strike out frequently against left-handers, doing so once every 3.86 at-bats in 2024. This season, in their small sample size of 27 at-bats facing lefties, they have struck out nine times.

Can we get a similar performance from Zach Eflin?

The beauty of this bet involving Crochet is that we don’t necessarily need one, as long as Boston’s new ace is on his game. But we certainly have the potential to see something solid from the 10-year veteran (wow, are we getting old).

Eflin began his first full season in Baltimore with a terrific outing on Opening Day, beating a tough Blue Jays lineup on the road with six quality innings, allowing two runs on just two hits and a walk. It was a noted improvement from his rocky Opening Day against Toronto the year before.

This will be Eflin’s fifth start against the Red Sox since joining the AL East—he signed with the Rays in 2023 and was dealt to the Orioles midway through last season—and we’d love to see something in line with the previous four. In those outings, Eflin pitched into the sixth inning while yielding three runs or fewer each time.

A key component that could help him replicate that success is Boston’s struggles at the plate so far. The Red Sox are tied with the Angels for the third-worst team batting average (.201) in the American League and have hit only three home runs. Rafael Devers (0-for-19, 15 strikeouts) and Triston Casas (1-for-17, seven strikeouts) have particularly struggled.

Hopefully, the Red Sox don’t snap out of their slump all at once. If they don’t, Eflin should be able to deliver a fine performance. On the other side, Crochet will do the rest. Be sure to buy the half-run to lock in that key number of 8 at a very fair price.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-125, DraftKings)

2023 MLB Betting Record: 4-2-1, +1.65 units
Over/Unders: 3-2
Props: 1-0
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Mariners Under 7 (WIN)

Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.