Wrexham AFC: Standings, schedule as Red Dragons inch closer to Championship promotion

Not since 1982 have Wrexham played in the second tier of English football but promotion is tantalizingly within reach for the oldest club in Wales as the League One season enters its finishing straight. It is, however, not in their hands after a 2-2 draw away to relegation scrappers Cambridge United on a night where their nearest rivals handed the Red Dragons a chance to take control of the promotion race.

With six games of their own left to play, Phil Parkinson’s side sit second in the table. League leaders Birmingham City are streaking off towards the Championship, 11 points clear of the field with two games in hand on Wrexham. Behind them, it is shaping up to be quite the scrap for the second automatic spot.

Wycombe Wanderers have their fate in their own hands despite turning 30 shots at the bottom of the table Shrewsbury Town into no goals as they were made to settle for a point. Meanwhile, Charlton Athletic and Stockport County both gained ground on Tuesday night, setting the stage for a thrilling race to the finish line on May 3.

League One automatic promotion race

The sides finishing first and second will automatically be promoted to the Championship with teams ranked third to sixth entering the playoffs, a two-legged semifinal followed by the final at Wembley on May 25.

Wrexham’s remaining fixtures

• April 5: Wrexham 3, Burton 0
• April 12: Wigan (a)
• April 18: Bristol Rovers (h)
• April 21: Blackpool (a)
• April 26: Charlton (h)
• May 3: Lincoln (a)

So what do Wrexham need to get promoted?

There is no scenario in which Wrexham can be absolutely certain of a top-two finish. If Wycombe were to win their remaining seven games, then even a 100 percent run for the Welsh side would leave them level on points with their promotion rivals. That would mean goal difference breaking the tie, and in that regard, Wycombe have a healthy advantage of five (they have also scored significantly more if that is required to break the tie).

Realistically, such a relentless run of winning is unlikely. Instead, it may come down to a series of pivotal fixtures for both sides. In theory, Wrexham’s meetings with Burton Albion and Bristol Rovers ought to be straightforward, given the 30-plus points that separate them. Then again, at this stage of the season, there are few trickier assignments than those sides scrapping for their lives to avoid relegation as those opponents are.

Perhaps the most significant game for both Wycombe and Wrexham, however, falls in late April. In the space of five days, Charlton travel first to Adams Park and then the Racecourse Ground. If the side in fourth win at either spot, it could constitute a decisive swing in the promotion race. Win both and Charlton themselves would be firmly in the mix.

Has a team ever risen as fast as Wrexham might?

If Wrexham do hold off Wycombe and the rest of the contenders, they would make it three promotions in as many seasons. In 2022-23, they returned to the English Football League after a 15-year absence, immediately following that by comfortably achieving promotion from League Two in second place.

Several other teams in English football have risen through three layers of the pyramid in consecutive years — indeed, Truro City and Shaw Lane went up four times in a row, but no one has risen so quickly through the highest levels of the English pyramid. FC United of Manchester, for instance, went up three tiers after their founding by disaffected Manchester United supporters in June 2005 but in doing so reached the Northern Premier League Premier Division, level seven on the pyramid.

For Wrexham, the opposition has been of a higher grade as they chase the second tier. The 2022-23 National League was largely, if not entirely, made up of professional clubs. Every team in Leagues Two and One is fully professional. Of course, it should be noted that Wrexham, owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, have had the financial muscle to impose themselves on every level of competition they have been in so far. That leads to the major question that will come with any possible promotion.

Could Wrexham survive in the Championship?

Park for a moment the prospect of this team going up yet another tier and reaching the Premier League. Back-to-back promotions from League One to the top flight have been done, indeed Ipswich Town did so last season, but teams who manage that tend to be some of the big beasts of the English game. Wrexham might have developed an avid global fanbase since their takeover, but the Championship is an expensive league to be in.

In League Two, Wrexham had a wage bill of over $14 million a year, a figure that will certainly have risen with the recruitment of former Premier League players such as Jay Rodriguez and Matty James. Even accounting for an upswing in salaries, a wealthy promoted side might still find themselves spending a third of what the Championship’s richest clubs pay out. Wrexham director Humprey Ker has even spoken about the salary spend needing to quadruple to keep up following promotion.

That investment might be all the more necessary because Wrexham’s underlying numbers don’t scream that this is a team ready to take on the likes of Southampton and Leicester. Parkinson’s men have turned 48.1 expected goals (xG) into 56 goals scored and have faced shots worth 42.4 xG, conceding 32 goals. They might sit second in the League One table but rank the clubs by non-penalty xG difference and Wrexham are ninth.

That is not something that augurs well for Wrexham’s ability to secure promotion in their remaining six games, let alone survive in the Championship if they get there. Then again, the story of this club since 2020 has been a club willing to rise to the moment if it is thrust upon them. If they do indeed make it out of League One, expect the wealth that comes in the Championship to be invested into keeping Wrexham there.