Arsenal vs. Real Madrid bold Champions League predictions: Can Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr. break down Gunners?

The Champions League quarterfinals are upon us and, with all due respect to the grand old dukes at Bayern Munich and Inter, there is one matchup above all that screams “tie of the round”. Arsenal and Real Madrid face off in European competition for only the second time in their history, 19 years on from the Thierry Henry-inspired last 16 triumph for the Gunners.

On that occasion Arsene Wenger’s side kept clean sheets home and away to eliminate Ronaldo, Zinedine Zidane and company. This time out they will have to do without Gabriel Magalhaes if they are to overcome the reigning European champions, who themselves are without the likes of Aurelien Tchouameni, Dani Ceballos and Ferland Mendy for their trip to north London.

It certainly promises to be an intriguing clash but where might it be won and lost? Let’s find out:

1. Arsenal’s defense holds firm at home

Just when it looked like Arsenal were rallying for one final push, a hammer blow on Tuesday night upended their season once more. Bukayo Saka was back and just in time for a quarterfinal where they might be able to ride Europe’s best defense and nick a winner at the other end. The vibes were getting 2006 adjacent, only this time Mikel Arteta was fielding a lineup of legitimate defensive superstars rather than the implausibly excellent Mathieu Flamini at left back system that somehow took Arsene Wenger to the Champions League final 19 years ago.

Then the hamstring plague struck Gabriel. The anchor of Arsenal’s defense, out for the season. Gone is the man who would have most relished his run in with Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, who could have protected the left side from Rodrygo’s incursions and who might just have nicked the winner from a corner. William Saliba may be a more talented and important defender in the system, but it is Gabriel who is the leader of this backline, rollicking his fellow defenders on the rare occasion when that is required, organizing the rearguard. There is no one else who is quite as natural an authority figure, no wonder given he has been left out of the starting XI on just 11 occasions since the start of last season.

They will miss Gabriel and his qualities but perhaps not as much as they might have when it really seemed the sky was falling in on Tuesday night. Moments after losing their No. 6, Jurrien Timber took a painful blow to the knee. Ben White was dealing with a fresh flare up on his knee post operation. There seemed to be a non-zero chance of Thomas Partey lining up at right back against Vinicius Junior. Yikes. Those fears eased with Mikel Arteta confirming on Monday afternoon that every player who had come through the draw at Everton — a group that included Timber and White — was available for the visit of Madrid.

Arsenal star defender Gabriel to miss rest of seasn with injury: What do Gunners do vs. Real Madrid?

James Benge

That means options. Timber and Saliba could shuffle across one position with White slotting in at right back. He could even play as one of the center backs too while the most straightforward solution might just be to plug Jakub Kiwior into the Gabriel-shaped hole. Certainly that is a drop off in individual quality, though it may be that any skittishness Kiwior feels goes untested by a Madrid side who don’t really press.

Similarly, to overemphasise the individual absences is perhaps to misunderstand what makes Arsenal one of the best defenses in the world. Sander Berge put it best after 90 largely fruitless minutes in Fulham’s 2-1 defeat at the Emirates last week. “It’s as if someone is sitting up in row 50 remote-controlling them. They seem so compact and everyone covers the room all the time. It’s difficult to find where to attack them and where to overload them.” Gabriel might have been one of the key organizing figures on the pitch, but the reality of watching Arsenal defend without the ball is, as Berge alluded to, they don’t need someone alongside them to do that. They just know where to be. They are the product of hours on the training ground, a finely honed machine off the ball that can cope with one component missing, even one as critical as Gabriel.

2. Saka shines in flashes

It is not quite as clear if that is true at the other end. Part of the tale of the tie will be whether Arsenal’s defensive superstars can hold off Madrid’s devastating offensive threat. No less significant will be events at the other end of the field. Madrid look vulnerable right across their backline. No Dani Carvajal or Ferland Mendy means it’s some amalgamation of Fran Garcia, Lucas Vazquez, David Alaba and quite critical midfielders to take on the fullback roles. Aurelien Tchouameni’s suspension and Dani Ceballos’ injury means a few of those midfielders will be needed in their natural position.

Can Arsenal get at that backline? On the left Gabriel Martinelli has looked more like himself in recent games, but really this seems like a team that will rise and fall on whether Bukayo Saka can deliver superstar output. That is what he was undoubtedly doing before his hamstring injury in December, 13 assists and nine goals in just 24 games. Of course, the true mark of a superstar is often what their team looks like without them. In the 100 days they played without Saka, Arsenal’s non-penalty expected goals dropped by 16 percent across all competitions. They went from being a frequently devastating attack to an infrequently effective attack, though it should be noted the drop off was all the more profoundly felt as Kai Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli followed Saka to the treatment room.

If Saka is back to his best then he could be an unanswerable test for Garcia, and one that might overcome any Alaba that is not the outstanding left back he once was. Will he be? Even he seems to not quite know the answer. Asked directly if he feels ready to start on Tuesday night, Saka grinned but acknowledged: “There’s only one way to find out.” He added: “It was tough for me, came out at a bad moment, but I’m just focused now on the positives and I couldn’t ask to come back at a better time of the season than now.”

The bull case for Arsenal is that Saka is that most valuable of commodities at this stage of the season, a grade A superstar who hasn’t been run into the ground over the last few months. The reality might be more prosaic, that a player with 69 minutes in his legs in 2025 can only do what he does best in flashes. Arsenal will need to make sure they capitalize on those moments.

3. Madrid’s individuals carry them through

If they do they might shade what promises to be an attritional, nervous tie. If this goes the way the Gunners want it to, it should be a tight, somewhat cautious encounter in which they control the possession game and slowly pick at the weak points of the Madrid backline. That really might work.

And yet, it’s time for that old familiar line at this stage of a European season. It’s Real Madrid. Stuff happens. Usually in quite dramatic fashion. Arsenal discovered to their cost last year that the best of the best have a few more game-breaking attackers than they have. No one has more than Madrid. The reality is that if Mikel Arteta’s side, weakened attack and all, play the game their way then it will be one of fine margins. It is on those margins that Madrid thrive.

The best defense in the game might lock up Mbappe for 179 minutes. Some of the biggest teams in Europe know all too well that he only needs a few seconds to turn a tie. The same with Vinicius Junior. Rodrygo? Well he’s just an engine of pure narrative, forged in the heart of the somehow Madrid always win the Champions League furnace. There does not quite seem to be a more compelling explanation for why it always happens other than it always happens. It might well happen again.