Apr 2, 2025; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Soothing start last night to the new week thanks to a great duel between Hunter Greene and Logan Webb, snuggly guiding Monday’s over/under to victory. Would sure be nice if they all came easy like that — and we’ll seek another one at PNC Park tonight.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates play the middle contest of their three-game set, and it’s automatically appointment viewing thanks to one man: Paul Skenes.
Whenever the 2023 first overall draft pick is set to make his next turn, the entire baseball world pauses to watch. That’s how special Skenes already is, and he’s certainly off to a desirable start two outings into his second major league season as he looks to duplicate — and build on — the rousing success of his rookie campaign.
Through his first pair of assignments, Skenes is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. He’s holding opposing hitters to a minuscule .143 batting average — more than 50 points lower than where that mark stood (.198) after his freshman campaign.
Obviously, Skenes isn’t going to sustain that, but it’s still telling that he’s just as dominant as last year, if not more. And now he’s drawing an opponent he made mincemeat of each time he saw them as a rookie. The Cardinals logged more innings (20 2/3) against Skenes last season than any other team and never had a clue how to even put a dent in the special right-hander.
Skenes had three starts against St. Louis, yielding only three runs combined while etching a 0.68 WHIP and a 23-to-1 K/BB ratio in those outings. Their team average? A mere .178.
There’s no doubt how spectacular Skenes was in 2024, and if he’s not taking his foot off the pedal, then keep riding with him when a spot presents itself. And that may be the case in terms of the total given who will be getting the ball as the counterpart this evening.
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That would be the Cardinals’ ace, Sonny Gray, who is showing he still has plenty left as an upper-echelon pitcher. While he currently carries a 5.73 ERA through his first two starts, the 13-year veteran has actually looked mostly sharp. Gray claimed a win on Opening Day with a five-inning, two-run performance against the Twins, and although he yielded five runs last time out, he also pitched into the seventh inning and struck out nine.
Gray is still an All-Star-caliber pitcher at age 35, and he has a favorable matchup for his next turn. He handled the Bucs well last season in his first rodeo as a Cardinal, notching 17 strikeouts compared to one walk in two meetings. Pittsburgh is coming off its first two games this year (finally) scoring more than four runs, but overall, the Pirates are still hitting just .207 as a team — tied for third worst in the National League with the Cincinnati Reds.
The Pirates also carry only a .609 OPS as a team, tied for second worst — again, with the Reds — in the league. Their seven total home runs are tied for the third-fewest in all of baseball.
Unsurprisingly, this pitching showdown comes with a low total of 6.5. The juice is on the over, enabling bettors to grab the under of that all-important 7 at a perfectly acceptable price. I highly recommend doing so before the juice likely reverses course.
Pick: UNDER 7 (-130, bet365)
MLB Betting Record: 8-4-1, +3.53 units
Over/Unders: 7-3-1
Props: 1-0
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Giants Under 7 (WIN)
Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.
Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.
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