The thorn in McLaren’s side. Plus, Lewis Hamilton’s interesting admission

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Prime Tire Newsletter | This is The Athletic’s twice-weekly F1 newsletter. Sign up here to receive Prime Tire directly in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday.

Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we’re wondering if you’ve seen the Mercedes video of Valtteri Bottas riding a rollercoaster at the Japanese Grand Prix? Because it’s about to take over the newsletter.

We’ve got some numbers and #takes to sift through before we shift to the Bahrain Grand Prix weekend. I’m Patrick Iversen, and Madeline Coleman will be along shortly. Let’s dive in.

Unpacking Suzuka

A curious Hamilton quote

Something on my mind today: Lewis Hamilton’s comments after Japan.

Three races into his Ferrari career, Hamilton’s grand prix returns have been modest at best — a P7 in Japan and P10 in Australia, plus that painful disqualification in China. While his sprint win from pole in Shanghai offered a brief glimpse of potential, the SF-25’s performance deficit appears more structural than circumstantial: Team boss Fred Vasseur has suggested Ferrari will need time to close the gap.

“Through the first three races, there’s been a bit of a deficit between both sides of the (Ferrari) garage on an element of the car, on my side, something underperforming,” Hamilton told reporters. He also admitted that Ferrari is “clearly” the fourth-fastest team right now.

That made me go, “Huh.”

Thanks to Formula Data Analysis, we can see drivers’ race pace for last weekend’s Japanese GP. Sure enough, Ferrari was fourth-fastest.

(Graphic design is my passion.)

Following a hunch, I pulled up the data for the 2024 Japanese GP — coincidentally, also Hamilton’s third race of the season (he retired in Australia with engine problems). Lo and behold, look which team had the fourth-fastest pace this time last year:

By this metric, it seems like Hamilton has swapped one fourth-best team for another.

Ferrari trails McLaren by 76 points in the constructors’ standings, so I think it’s fair to say Hamilton’s honeymoon period in red is over. Work to be done.

The coming triple-header through Bahrain and Saudi Arabia could define whether Ferrari’s 2025 season becomes a fight for podiums or merely damage limitation.

A Verstappen-sized reminder

Max Verstappen reminded everyone why he’s a four-time world champion at Suzuka this weekend, delivering what Fernando Alonso called “a magical moment” in qualifying and what his engineer described as “perfection” during the race. Sure, McLaren still seems to have the faster car — but we learned again that if Verstappen’s flawless at the front, beating him is a tall order.

Did McLaren miss an opportunity, though? When Oscar Piastri radioed that he had the pace to catch Verstappen, team boss Andrea Stella faced an emerging McLaren conundrum: prioritize one driver or let them race equally.

We wrote about this “perfect problem” recently. Having two front-running drivers could become increasingly complicated as the season progresses, especially now that Lando Norris leads Verstappen by just one point in the championship while McLaren enjoys a comfortable lead in the constructors’ standings.

As Madeline wrote today, as long as Verstappen remains a thorn in its side, McLaren’s driver decision-making will remain difficult.

For more on McLaren and Verstappen, here’s Madeline.

Inside the Paddock with Madeline Coleman

No margin for error at the top

We’re only three races into the season, and a pattern has begun to emerge. The pole sitter has won each race, and the championship battle is much closer than in recent years, with Max Verstappen trailing Lando Norris by just a point heading into Bahrain.

But it would be too early to call this a three-way title fight. There are still 21 grands prix and five sprint races remaining, the season lasting into December. As Verstappen said, “A lot of things can happen, right?”

Norris pointed out how Charles Leclerc “was not that much slower”, noting that “his second stint on the Hards was just as quick as mine,” and George Russell was also quick during the weekend. The Mercedes driver secured consecutive podium finishes in Australia and China before bringing home fifth in Japan. There may have been a notable gap between the top three finishers in Japan and Leclerc and Russell, as the Ferrari driver was 16 seconds off of Verstappen. But Oscar Piastri also isn’t writing off Mercedes and Ferrari.

“Mercedes looked very threatening at times this weekend,” he said. “Ferrari — I think people forget that Charles’ race in China he did with, essentially, half a front wing. So I think if anyone else had tried to do the race he did in China, they would have had to box pretty quickly.”

McLaren currently leads the constructors’ standings with 111 points, while Mercedes has 75 and Red Bull 61 (entirely thanks to Verstappen so far). While McLaren is the most complete team right now, between the driver lineup and strong car, the margins are thin.

“I think we have a small advantage,” Piastri said Sunday, “but I think this weekend has really shown that any small mistake and there’s a lot of competition there to capitalize.”

Thanks, Madeline. Now it’s time for …

A Valtteri interlude

Looking ahead

Back to Bahrain

After a few years of hosting the season opener, the Bahrain GP this weekend is instead the fourth race on the calendar. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on this week:

• The race should be much less boring than Japan. F1 drivers (and fans) bemoaned the lack of overtaking at the Japanese GP last weekend. No such problems at Bahrain, which features plenty of spots to pass.
• Watch out for Mercedes. The Mercedes drivers are very quietly having a terrific start to the season — George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are fourth and fifth, respectively. I would not be shocked if one sneaks onto the podium.
• F1’s engine future will be decided this week ahead of the grand prix, as the FIA meets with F1’s engine manufacturers about returning to the V10 power unit. (We wondered how viable that is.)

As for the weekend schedule:

Friday

• FP1: 7:30 a.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. BST
• FP2: 11 a.m. ET / 4 p.m. BST

Saturday

• FP3: 8:30 a.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. BST
• Qualifying: noon ET / 5 p.m. BST

Sunday

• Bahrain GP: 11 a.m. ET / 4 p.m. BST

Outside the points

🚨 New record alert 🚨

Kimi Antonelli, 18, broke Max Verstappen’s records for youngest driver to lead a race and to record the fastest lap. Not bad for a guy who just got his driver’s license.

Former F1 Academy champion Marta García is out of the hospital after a scary crash in a Le Mans Cup race at Barcelona.

Luke Smith took a look at Yuki Tsunoda’s disappointing first weekend at Red Bull, and managed to find some silver linings.

And, finally, we’ll have three reserve drivers running FP1 at Bahrain this week.

And that’s the end of the newsletter.

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(Top photo: Clive Mason/Getty Images)g

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