Overall, it’s a bit early to target specific players on the trade market. After all, most teams have played roughly 12 games, which is not enough to generate a meaningful sample size. Rather than mention specific trade targets at this early juncture of the season, I’m going to go over some tips for making smart deals in April.
Use the Yahoo Trade Market
Longtime readers know that I mention the Yahoo Trade Market several times each season. Exploring the thousands of deals on the trade market can sometimes bring greater clarity on a player’s value. This is especially true for players who are hard to value because their production has been especially good or bad at the outset of the season. For example, a manager who hopes to get on the Kristian Campbell train, may want to view his recent trades before deciding how much to offer for the exciting rookie. The same theory applies to someone who wants to send a buy-low offer to a slow starter such as Christian Walker.
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Slow Starters
This category looks obvious, but it’s not as clear cut as it seems. Targeting every slow starter is a recipe for disaster. When play started on this date last year, José Abreu was batting .067, Max Kepler was hitting .050 and Victor Scott II owned a .077 average. All three of those men — and many others — failed to turn their season around. But Abreu, Kepler and Scott each entered the season with red flags. Conversely, hitters like Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Castellanos and Francisco Lindor would have all been excellent buy-low options at this point in 2024. The conclusion here is that managers want to target hitters who are off to slow starts after entering the season with minimal red flags.
2-for-1 Trades
I mentioned this concept last week, but it bears repeating that 2-for-1 (or 3-for-1) trades are typically big wins in April. These deals consolidate assets, which creates more star power at the top of a roster while creating space to grab some of the many players who build sleeper value by getting off to a surprisingly strong start.
Selling High
This is much more difficult than buying low, as it’s hard for managers to turn their back on a player who is spurring them to victory. For example, every player listed here had an OPS over 1.100 on this date in 2024. I’ve listed their final OPS in brackets. Anthony Volpe (.657), Michael Conforto (.759), MJ Melendez (.674), Jarred Kelenic (.679), Spencer Steer (.721). Injury-prone superstar Mike Trout also got off to a tremendous start and wound up playing in just 29 games. Tyler O’Neill and Mookie Betts were among the fastest starters players in baseball and each played in fewer than 120 contests. Overall, if a player looks too good to be true, he probably is.
Recognize Expected Stats
To be clear, expected stats are not designed to be predictive and should not be treated as gospel. That being said, they can sometimes add perspective to a hot or cold start by a specific player. For example, Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, Jose Altuve and Bryson Stott all have a batting average that exceeds their xBA by over 100 points. Meanwhile, although Kristian Campbell is not going to maintain his .351 average, his .294 xBA gives an indication that he is ready to be a productive player all season. On the flip side, wise managers may be able to use Mike Trout’s .171 average in a buy-low offer, while failing to mention his impressive .299 xBA. Expected stats tend to normalize closer to the actual marks by the summer, but at this time of year they are a valuable source of information.
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Recognize Schedule
Reasons for hot and cold starts can sometimes be found in the schedule. The Braves got off to a miserable start this season, which was less surprising when noticing that their initial seven games came on the road against excellent teams (Padres, Dodgers). It would be lazy to solely blame the schedule, but it may be another piece of the puzzle when looking for options on the trade market. There will also be starting pitchers at this point in the season who have been hurt or helped by having all their initial starts against some of the best or worst lineups.
Chase Value
Managers tend to make bad moves when they reach on April trades to shore up a roster weakness. The goal at this time of year is to make trades that upgrade the overall talent on the roster, even if that deal makes the roster unbalanced for a period of time. Between waiver wire moves, injuries, cold streaks and subsequent trades, each roster is going to go through many twists and turns for the remainder of the season. At this time of year, effective managers will look past skill sets, categories and positions when making trades.
This news was originally published on this post .
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