Major League Baseball is more geared toward home runs than ever before, with batters actively trying to generate lift, pitchers preferring to work up in the zone, and more hitter-friendly ballparks. We’re not even two weeks into the season and there are already 22 players with at least four home runs, including Nationals outfielder James Wood. The 22-year-old blasted two home runs against the Dodgers on Tuesday and has hit three bombs in two games to lift his season total to four.
However, you can still get Wood to go yard again for a favorable price, with FanDuel Sportsbook listing his MLB home run odds at +630. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. On Tuesday, it called Kerry Carpenter to hit a home run for a +650 payout. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Wednesday. These three picks can be parlayed for +13796 odds and would pay out $689.83 on a $5 bet.
The 2023 American League Rookie of the Year earned his first all-star nod in 2024 and finished the year with 37 home runs. He’s now blasted 65 home runs in his first two full seasons and you’re getting a great price here considering the matchup. Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt has already surrendered four home runs in 12 innings this season and the model’s projected line is +358, but you can get +470 at FanDuel.
“Henderson is off to a slow start after missing the beginning of the season with an injury, but he now has a week of game action under his belt,” SportsLine Date Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “Henderson hit 29 of his 37 home runs last season against right-handed pitchers and had a .553 SLG against righties last season.”
Schwarber ran into a difficult lefty vs. lefty matchup against last year’s AL Cy Young winner Chris Sale and didn’t seem phased, as he sent a fifth-inning offering 462 feet for his fifth home run of the season. Now he gets a more favorable matchup against Braves right-hander Grant Holmes, who is making his first start in 10 days after giving up four earned runs in four inning against the Dodgers on March 31.
“Schwarber’s historical power numbers are much better against RHPs, so we are probably factoring that a bit more than Vegas when setting his line today. We set the line at around +270 for a Schwarber home run, and with him hitting leadoff when facing RHPs, he could have an extra AB compared to other players on the Phillies,” said Fetner of his HR odds at FanDuel.
Aaron Judge is no surprise at the top of the MLB home run leaderboard, but Soderstrom stands alongside him with six home runs over his first 12 games. Power was a big part of what once made him a consensus top-40 prospect in baseball and it’s starting to come to fruition in his third season tasting MLB action.
“Soderstrom has all 6 of his HRs this season off of RHPs and is facing a righty today with Randy Vasquez on the mound for San Diego,” stated Fetner. “We set the line at +380 for Soderstrom to hit a HR today.” Both FanDuel and BetMGM are offering +500 and the model thinks they’re slow to respond to his hot start.
Want more MLB picks for Wednesday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
This news was originally published on this post .
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