How often is the first QB drafted the best in the class? We checked 25 years of history

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Inside: We unpack 25 years of data to see how often the first QB drafted is the best pro (hint: odds aren’t great for Cam Ward).

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Quarterback draft history

I charted 25 years of data to answer this one question: How often does the first quarterback drafted become the best in that class?

This year, Cam Ward is the undisputed top quarterback and likely No. 1 pick, followed by a noticeable gap. Up next is the widely-debated Shedeur Sanders, who has the accuracy to be top-five but is falling down mock drafts due to limited arm strength and poor pocket presence.

“I cannot get there on Sanders as a top-10 pick, and I don’t think he’s ready to help fix a truly bad team,” wrote Nick Baumgardner in his most recent three-round mock draft, which had Sanders landing with the Steelers at No. 21 overall. Three other quarterbacks are found later in Nick’s mock, which also has Ward at No. 1:

• No. 33: Browns draft QB Tyler Shough
• No. 34: Giants draft QB Jaxson Dart
• No. 42: Jets draft QB Jalen Milroe

The bad news for Ward? If we fast forward 15 years, it’s more likely that anyone other than him — the first quarterback drafted — became the best passer in this class.

Over the past 25 years, the first quarterback drafted has become the best pro 40 percent of the time. Starting in 2000, when Chad Pennington (No. 18) was picked well before Tom Brady (No. 199), only 10 times did the first quarterback drafted become the best passer in their class.

(I’m judging both subjectively and with objective metrics, such as those in last year’s review of how often top-12 quarterbacks succeed).

The past 12 years are bleak for No. 1 QB prospects like Ward: Only three quarterbacks — a hit rate of 25 percent — were both the first drafted and best pro.

Those years are filled with misses, with the most painful for their respective fanbases being:

• 2017’s Mitch Trubisky (QB1 drafted No. 2) over Patrick Mahomes (QB2, drafted No. 10),
• 2018’s Baker Mayfield (No. 1) over both Josh Allen (QB3, drafted No. 7) and Lamar Jackson (QB5, drafted No. 32), and…
• 2005’s Alex Smith (No. 1) over Aaron Rodgers (No. 24).

We weren’t always this likely to miss on prospects. The hit rate from 2008 to 2012 was 100%, and in the 13 years prior to Buffalo’s EJ Manuel head-scratcher we saw teams correctly identify the top passer 50 percent of the time — yes, there was a time when teams were twice as likely to correctly draft and develop the draft’s top passer than they have been able to in recent years.

After a quick moment of silence for that 2007 QB class, what does this all mean? The mathematician John Allen Paulos’ famous statement applies here as well as anywhere: “Uncertainty is the only certainty there is.”

We definitely shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, who could be a Brock Purdy-type in the right system.

Same goes for Jalen Milroe. Ted Nguyen’s film review on Milroe points out the lack of consistency, accuracy, timing and pocket presence at Alabama. Similar concerns were raised about Jalen Hurts, who won Super Bowl MVP five years after his selection had Eagles fans — and even The Athletic — in shambles.

What Dianna’s Hearing: Ben Johnson’s goals in Chicago

Ben Johnson is the man in the spotlight this April. At last week’s league meeting, Johnson talked about emphasizing EPA (expected points added) over turnover differential. Let me translate: He wants Caleb Williams to take chances.

Williams was sacked more than any other QB in 2024, and while Johnson and Ryan Poles’ O-line additions will hopefully lead to improved protection, the coach wants his QB to try to fit the ball into windows he might not have tested during his rookie year. It all sounds… very Detroit-esque, doesn’t it?

Johnson wants to be creative with the Bears’ offense. That’s why he’s building it like the unit he had in Detroit — nasty up front, with a QB looking to make plays. My only question is, if it all works out, which Bears lineman will play the Penei Sewell pass-catching role?

Back to you, Jacob.

Exclusive Q&A w/ Dane Brugler

There are few things every NFL fan agrees on. Tom Brady’s GOAT status? Questioned by some. Dan Campbell’s passion? I’ve heard it critiqued.

But everyone’s go-to draft guide? That’s unequivocally “The Beast,” which Dane Brugler published this morning. It’s the perfect chance for you to learn more about those quarterbacks who could surprise, from Dane’s QB3 Jaxson Dart to QB6 Quinn Ewers, both with starting potential in the NFL. We had to grab Dane.

How should any first-time readers approach it? Who should they start with?

💬 Dane: There certainly isn’t a right or wrong way to consume The Beast! If you enjoy the backstories for prospects, there are a lot of interesting journeys – check out Shavon Revel or Jayden Higgins or numerous others. If you enjoy the data and testing information, you can scour through NFL-verified numbers for over 2,500 prospects.

Ultimately, this is a resource guide so make sure you have it handy over the three days of the draft and beyond.

Dane’s been ahead of the curve in big ways before — projecting early picks to be used on players like Travon Walker and J.J. McCarthy months before anyone else. Who in this draft does he expect to go much earlier than consensus?

💬 Dane: We’ll see where he ends up on draft night, but Missouri offensive tackle Armand Membou was a player who immediately shot to the top of my rankings after I finished his evaluation in November.

At only 20 years old, he had the tape and tools to be in the top-10 conversation. I expected the Senior Bowl to be his breakout and confirm that projection, but he had to bow out due to an illness. However, Membou crushed the combine and backed up what he put on film.

You were also early on Ashton Jeanty, right?

💬 Dane: Yes, Jeanty was my clear RB1 when I started evaluating this class last June. I received a lot of pushback on that opinion when my running back preview came out last summer. Some preferred Ollie Gordon or Quinshon Judkins or others in this rich running back class. But pretty early in the 2024 season, it became clear for just about everyone that Jeanty was the guy.

All subscribers of The Athletic can read The Beast for free, here. 👀

Draft notes on early NFC picks

After disappointing 2024 seasons, these two teams are looking to get back on track. Here’s what The Athletic’s beat writers expect next:

49ers (6-11): They’ll compensate for the offseason exodus with 11 total picks and the No. 11 selection, which should be spent on defense after six would-be starters departed this offseason. With defensive tackle their biggest need, DC Robert Saleh must be praying that Michigan’s Mason Graham falls. If not a succession play at left tackle for 36-year-old Trent Williams feels likely.

Bears (5-12): A mix of high offseason expectations followed by in-season disappointment is modus operandi in Chicago, where they’ll hope Ben Johnson’s emphasis on the trenches leads to playoff wins. They still need help along their offensive and defensive lines, though Ashton Jeanty is a possibility at No. 10. 

You can find our guides for every team here. We’ll be back Friday with an explainer on why teams so often miss on the best quarterback.

Monday’s most-clicked: Nick Baumgardner’s most recent mock draft, which has the Steelers landing Shedeur Sanders.

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(Photo: David Eulitt / Getty Images)

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