Five top defensive prospects, plus a Joe Flacco signing and why we miss on QBs

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Inside: Meet five defensive players you should know, hear the latest trade rumors about the No. 1 pick, and learn why the NFL struggles to develop quarterbacks.

Let’s dive in before the Browns add another quarterback — this morning they signed Joe Flacco to a one-year deal worth $4 million, with up to $13 million in incentives.

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Defensive line defining this draft

Elite draft talent is often a swinging pendulum. In 2024 the draft began with a record-setting 14 straight offensive players, including six quarterbacks. Only nine defensive players were first-round picks.

Naturally, this draft is defense-heavy. A quick read of The Beast shows that four of the top five overall players should start on defense:

And if you listened to yesterday’s episode of “The Athletic Football Show,” you’d know how stacked this defensive line class is.

By the numbers: There are 28 edge rushers and defensive tackles in Dane Brugler’s top 100 players, 40 percent more than last year’s class. Ten of those players have first-round grades. Here’s a quote, stat and comp for each of the top five:

Abdul Carter, Edge (No. 2 overall)

Quote: “With only one season under his belt as a true edge rusher, Carter needs continued polish in his attack. His arrow is pointing sky high, though, because of his get-off burst, body twitch and competitive intensity,” writes Dane.

Stats: In that first season playing on the edge at Penn State, Carter ranked No. 1 in the FBS in tackles for loss (23.5) and No. 2 in pressures (66).

Comp: “He reminds me of Von Miller,” one coach told The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman. “He’s really bendy around the edge and such a speed rusher. He’s slippery enough to make your tackle completely whiff, and it’s a TFL.”

Mason Graham, DT (No. 4 overall)

Quote: “Graham was arguably the most valuable defensive player on the Wolverines’ 2023 national championship team and played even better (with lesser talent around him) in 2024,” wrote Dane.

Stats: Like most defensive tackles, Graham’s production doesn’t pop on the stat sheet — 5 sacks, 7 TFL — but his PFF grade (91.1) led the FBS.

Comp: Rams DT Braden Fiske, though a Big Ten running backs coach told Bruce Feldman that Graham’s play style is a little like Aaron Donald. 👀 All three were considered undersized.

Jalon Walker, Edge (No. 5 overall)

Quote: “I’m at my best being a chess piece,” said Walker, whom Dane notes split his snaps between inside linebacker, outside linebacker and edge rusher.

Stats: Walker led Georgia in almost every pass-rushing metric in 2024, including pressures (34) and pass rush win percentage (17.2), despite ranking seventh on the team in pass-rush snaps, per Dane.

Comp: Early-career Haason Reddick, another undersized edge who wins with explosiveness.

Shemar Stewart, Edge (No. 9 overall)

Quote: “He’s the most athletic edge in this class not named Abdul Carter,” wrote Nick Baumgardner in his recent mock, which had the Bears drafting Stewart at No. 10.

Stats: Stewart’s Relative Athletic Score (RAS) makes him the most athletic defensive end among the 2,029 tested since 1987. Detractors point to Stewart’s lack of production at Texas A&M: He averaged just 1.5 sacks per season and a 26.9 percent missed tackle rate. Oof.

Comp: A less productive Jadeveon Clowney or Montez Sweat.

Mike Green, Edge (No. 10 overall)

If you haven’t seen his bull rush at the Senior Bowl, you’re welcome:

Quote: “Green could be among the first 15 picks if teams are comfortable with his off-the-field controversies,” wrote Ben Standig, as his mock draft had Green falling to Buffalo at No. 26. There have been two allegations of sexual assault against Green, both of which he denies.

Stats: Green ranked first in the FBS in sacks (17, tied the most by a player since Will Anderson had 17.5), tackles by a defensive lineman (84) and sack yardage (144) at Marshall in 2024.

Comp: “I think I can show flashes of Nik Bonitto’s speed, Will Anderson’s physicality,” Green reportedly said at the combine.

Now, Dianna has the latest on trade talks for the No. 1 pick:

What Dianna’s Hearing: All’s quiet on the draft trade front

If you’re looking for a last-minute shakeup atop the draft, 2025 might not be the year for you. I haven’t found a single source who’s said to watch out for a trade of the No. 1 pick. The Giants are the team that most suspect would make a move for the Titans’ pick, but the price to pry it away from Tennessee would be historically high.

In fact, I don’t think we’re going to see many trades in this year’s draft. Based on all the conversations I’ve had, no one seems to be interested in moving up in the first round — though there are some teams that would move down if given the chance.

Back to you, Jacob.

Draft History: Why we’re often wrong on QBs

Earlier this week I charted 25 years of data and found that the first quarterback drafted has become the best pro just 40 percent of the time. The second QB drafted? 24 percent.

The collective group of quarterbacks drafted after the first two (i.e. third, fourth, fifth, etc.)? That group, albeit large — with an average of 11 quarterbacks drafted each year — has fielded the best passer in their class at a 36 percent clip.

It’s clear that drafting a successful quarterback remains an inexact science. Mike Jones explored this in detail last April. Former players, current head coaches and GMs all chimed in with their thoughts:

“We’re only getting to see who a player is right now in college at 21, 22 years old … It’s a complete projection on who can be better,” said Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, himself an overlooked prospect.

NFL agent Leigh Steinberg, whose client list includes Patrick Mahomes, explained it this way: “Ryan Leaf, physically, was the better quarterback than Peyton Manning. But Manning had the killer mentality and attention to detail.”

“I’ve always found in scouting that you make the biggest mistakes more so on the person than the actual talent,” said Commanders GM Adam Peters.

Then there’s the nurture part of the equation. Take Bryce Young, who had less help in Carolina than Justin Fields did in Chicago.

Then compare the experience of Young and Fields with that of Mahomes: He began his career surrounded by Andy Reid, Alex Smith, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Failure seemed almost inexcusable. The full article has more on why we miss on quarterbacks.

What do you think? Nature or nurture? Share your thoughts here or in the comments below. We’ll unpack this in greater detail in the coming weeks.

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(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)

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