Four numbers that help explain how the Cubs have gotten off to a 9-6 start

Sports

add

Early-season numbers can be tricky.

Some numbers take a while to stabilize, and others can be more than just noise, indicators of what a team can be or do throughout a long season. Some are skewed due to the incredibly small sample. At times, that can mean there’s reason to be optimistic or perhaps to be cautious about a hot start.

Here’s a look at four key numbers that help explain how the Chicago Cubs have both weathered an early hard schedule (so far) and perhaps could have been even better as they have started 9-6.

(All stats and rankings are entering play on Thursday.)

96 percent

The Cubs have the second-highest steal rate in baseball. Only the Boston Red Sox, which are a perfect 16 for 16, are better than the Cubs, which have been caught just once in their 26 stolen base attempts. Only one team has attempted as many as the Cubs, the Pittsburgh Pirates, which have been caught five times.

Base running has been a focus for this team since the start of the offseason. Manager Craig Counsell hired Quintin Berry and Jose Javier to be his base coaches for a reason. The stolen bases stand out, but it also shouldn’t be ignored that the Cubs lead baseball with runners who have scored from second base on a single (19).

They also stand out in other categories, like going from first to third, scoring from first on a double and taking the extra base. And of course, there have been numerous games when they’ve hustled on what looked like an easy out and beaten throws at second on a fielder’s choice, leading to big innings. This looks like a separator for the group and an area that, in theory, shouldn’t slump.

.344

The Cubs have the third-highest BABIP with runners in scoring position. They’re taking their walks in those situations (second in MLB with a 16.2 percent rate) and pressuring teams in general. But just like when they hit slumps in this area and bad luck comes, it has to be pointed out when they’re performing a bit over their heads.

That’s to say, there will be days when they hit the skids with runners on. It happened to start the season in Japan (when they went 2 for 14 combined in those two games), and perhaps that stretch is instructive on how this shouldn’t be too concerning. Slumps will come, but keep them short. And when you’re not hitting or the conditions suggest there might be struggles, use the above skill set (great base running) to your advantage.

38.6 percent

This number is taking the Cubs’ in-zone swing percentage and subtracting the out-of-zone swing percentage. The Cubs are the seventh-highest in baseball and second in the National League.

Why does it matter? Because the best offenses in baseball often don’t chase pitches much. The Cubs are good at that, fifth in baseball and second in the NL. But that number matters a bit more when paired with being aggressive in the zone. A team doesn’t want that chase number to be artificially deflated just because they’re not swinging much. It can work for certain individuals (Juan Soto always stands out in this category), but as a team, passivity might not always work.

“Since I’ve been here, we’ve walked,” hitting coach Dustin Kelly said. “We’ve done a pretty good job of controlling the strike zone. The difference we’re seeing this year is that guys are more aggressive in the zone, and we’re looking to do damage in the zone. The personnel helps with that.”

Kelly pointed out that this is the blueprint for Kyle Tucker, the new Cubs star in the middle of the lineup, who has immediately produced at a high level. But Ian Happ is great at that and so is Seiya Suzuki. Dansby Swanson and Michael Busch have been impressive this season, too. These are numbers that tend to stabilize quickly. It might not be fully there yet, but this is a team that looks like it’ll walk a lot (they’re leading baseball at 12.4 percent) and attack pitches in the zone. That’s a great recipe for success.

6.5 percent

That’s the Cubs’ bullpen’s strikeout percentage minus their walk percentage. It’s the fourth-worst in baseball, with only the Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals, three teams not expected to be playoff contenders, being worse.

Everyone is aware of the bullpen’s walk issues. It’s something Counsell has talked about multiple times over the last week or so.

“It’s very simple, in our losses we’ve walked too many people,” Counsell said. “That’s certainly one place we have to do a little better at. There’s not necessarily a track record of high walks from a lot of our bullpen guys. You take note of that for sure. But too many walks, we have to keep an eye on it.”

Ryan Pressly is one of those pitchers to keep an eye on. His walk rate entering the season was 7.1 percent, and it hasn’t been above 7.7 percent in a season since 2015. But this year, through seven innings, it’s at 17.6 percent.

Caleb Thielbar, the lone lefty in the bullpen, has a 26.3 percent walk rate and came into the season with an 8.1 percent rate for his career. Many of his walks have been uncompetitive as well.

Pairing this with strikeout rates that just don’t impress is also concerning. Pressly (a jarring 5.9 percent strikeout rate) just isn’t getting many swings and misses. His 6.1 percent swinging-strike rate is nearly a third of his peak numbers and less than half of what he accomplished last season. But he’s not alone. Nate Pearson has a 13.5 percent strikeout rate, and Julian Merryweather is at 15 percent. Both have the type of stuff that should garner much better strikeout numbers.

All three should see those numbers rise. They must to survive. Right now, outside of Porter Hodge and Brad Keller, one has to squint to find relievers Counsell can trust. Some will stabilize and others will have to be moved on from for those in the minors or eventual moves from outside the organization.

Otherwise, this unit will cause major issues for a team that has a lot going for it and could certainly make a run to October.

(Photo of Ryan Pressly: Geoff Stellfox / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

Share on

email

Previous

trending_flat

‘It’s a lot. It’s too much’: What do MLB players do with all their stuff?

Sports

Next

trending_flat

Neue Hoffnung für Leverkusen? – Transfer-Rückschlag für Tah!

Bayer Leverkusen