MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds, April 12

Finally, we get a break. The funny thing about rain-shortened games is they could eliminate various bets involved in the proceedings. For an over/under bet, it generally must go the full nine innings (or 8.5 if the home team wins) for the wager to have action, even if it’s already sailed beyond the total (to prevent people from blindly betting overs every time there is guaranteed bad weather that will likely end the game prematurely).

So, despite last night’s bet being at 10 runs, the game being called in the sixth voided it for all (and, to the chagrin of Giants bettors, runline wagers were wiped out, too). We’ll take it. 

Saturday’s total takes us to another Cincinnati Reds game, continuing their three-game set with the division rival Pittsburgh Pirates. The Reds got the home ‘W’ in last night’s series opener. 

There will be a more interesting pitching matchup on hand for the second meeting, seeing new Bucs pitcher Andrew Heaney taking on the season-debuting Andrew Abbott. 

The first thing that should stick out right away is the fact that both starters are left-handed. Why is this a crucial component, you ask? 

Well both teams stink against southpaws – at least in the early going. 

The Reds have been absolutely dreadful with a lefty on the mound. They’ve managed a pathetic .142/.240/.248 slash line, ranking them second from the bottom in baseball in all three categories of team batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. 

Not only that, the Redlegs are striking out a high clip also, going down via the K 33 times in 113 at-bats. That’s once almost every three ABs when facing a left-hander.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh hasn’t fared much better in this department. Their .196 batting average against lefties ranks them 24th in the majors, while the club’s .536 OPS ranks them 27th. In the process, the Pirates have manufactured only four extra-base hits, which ties them for the fewest in MLB with the Baltimore Orioles.

Additionally, Oneil Cruz – probably the most explosive hitter in the lineup – is 0-for-11 when facing a southpaw. He’s typically struggled against such pitchers in his young career.

Now to just harness two trusty left-handers for such a bout and that appears to be the case with this particular billing.

Before getting into analyzing Heaney, I must confess that there’s definitely at least a little bias involved. He’s been one of my favorite pitchers since he debuted in 2014 (a 1-0 duel against Zack Wheeler in Miami, by the way!).

However, there may be legitimate evidence to believe that Heaney is on the verge of renaissance late in his career. And it’s not like he was struggling during his most recent tenure with the Texas Rangers. He was a big part of their championship conquest two years ago, not only by pitching them into the playoffs on the second-to-last day of the campaign but also coming through in the postseason – people forget he started and won a World Series game! 

The veteran also known as Heandog is out to a great beginning in his new digs. Yes, it’s only been two starts, but they’ve both been very encouraging, especially last time out when he held the mighty Yankees to a mere one run across seven sharp innings and striking out 10!

Heaney succeeding right now could be the result of some new things he’s doing. For instance, in that aforementioned starter opposite the Bronx Bombers, the 33-year-old was deploying his curveball more, even notching five Ks with that one pitch for the first time in five seasons.

There was also significantly heavier usage of his sinker. After throwing only 10 of them combined from 2020-24, he fired seven of that pitch alone in his last outing.

Add in his reliance on an occasional sidearm delivery and it’s evident that Heaney has made some notable adjustments that can continue his current run of success. I’ve personally viewed him for a long time as one of the best active players in the game to have never been named an All-Star (injuries definitely had an impact in that as well). Foreshadowing, maybe?

The counterpart, Andrew Abbott, is making his first start of the year after getting a bit of a late start to the spring. That bumped him to Triple-A for a bit before returning to The Show.

Abbott’s numbers in those two minor league starts were nothing special but he’s just one of those guys that benefits from being at the highest level and needs that extra intensity he gets in order to succeed. Minor league games don’t bring that out of someone like Abbott, who has already had success with the big-league club.

Remember, the third-year starter was excellent as soon as he arrived, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in his first 14 career starts. A year ago also brought out more quality work from Abbott before succumbing to a shoulder injury.

Both guys can be on their game tonight with weak offenses opposite left-handed pitching on their plate. 

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-118, DraftKings) 

2025 MLB Betting Record: 9-6-2, +2.23 units 

Over/Unders: 8-4-1 

Props: 1-1 

MLs: 0-1 

Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Yankees Under 8 (No Action) 

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated. 

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