Champions League quarter-final betting: Real Madrid & Bayern Munich on brink of exit

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A week ago, the quarter-final first-legs produced several surprising results. Bayern Munich lost 2-1 at the Allianz Arena to Simone Inzaghi’s fearless Inter Milan. Arsenal then proved to be less-than-welcoming hosts by ruthlessly picking apart a Real Madrid team that appeared more star-dazed than star-studded.

These outcomes have set the stage for two European powerhouses to mount furious comebacks this Wednesday to keep their aspirations alive. Between Bayern and Madrid, the numbers suggest one of these teams have a realistic shot to turn those dreams into a reality – spoiler alert: it’s not the ones who call the Bernabéu their home.

Arsenal vs Real Madrid: No Kroos, lots of problems

Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham form one of the best attacking trios in the world. Yet, despite all three playing every minute of the first leg, Madrid generated only 0.43 Expected Goals (xG) from their nine shots. Their shortcomings aren’t down to individual faults but to an uncomfortable truth about this year’s iteration of Los Blancos: This Madrid side can’t pass.

Three of the most aggressive pressing teams in world football are Barcelona, Liverpool and Arsenal. Coincidentally – not – these three teams have beaten Madrid by a combined score of 14-2 across four matches.

Injuries may have been framed as the culprit (and they certainly didn’t help), but Toni Kroos’s retirement has hindered the team’s ability to reach the upper echelons of domestic and continental competitions. If you need further proof, Luka Modric still leads the club in progressive passes per 90 minutes (excluding players that have played less than 1,500 minutes) – a metric defined as passes that move the ball ten or more yards closer to an opponent’s goal.

Modric has obviously a Faustian deal to wander around on a professional pitch until he’s 90. But, the fading Croatian star should not be the player a team with Madrid’s resources count on for ball progression. Modric may still be able to pass, but his legs are gone, and clubs with a ferocious press like Arsenal’s can easily neutralise him – just like they did seven days ago. The Gunners confined him to just four progresses passes in 71 minutes, despite a previous record boasting of 8.73 per 90.

It’s easy to blame the aforementioned world-class attackers for “not being involved in the game”. But, unless we’re talking about prime Lionel Messi, it’s not their job to advance the ball from deeper positions and create chances in the final third. Kroos was that man for Madrid; last season, he led in progressive passes per 90 and touches in the middle third of the pitch.

Unless the 35-year-old decides to forgo retirement for a last-hurrah-esq appearance at the Bernabéu, Madrid will unlikely spring a comeback for the ages. Combine that with Mikel Arteta’s love for destroying everything beautiful about the sport in games when his troops need a result (see: every Manchester City clash), and you’ll need all kinds of bizarre happenings for this to become a goalfest…unless, of course, Arsenal are Arsenal-ing.

Best bet to consider: Both Teams to Score: No – (11/8).

Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich: Will the Italians secure a spot in the final?

If you are someone who is easily perturbed by the trend of every team wanting to press and possess the ball, Inter’s 2-1 victory over Bayern Munich last week must’ve been a joyful watch.

Simone Inghazi’s decision to deploy a “defend and counter” strategy against sizable opponents might have even earned praise from José Mourinho. Now that we are heading back to Italy for the second leg, Inter are primed to do it all over again.

But should they?

Part of the reason pressing has become the dominant tactic among Europe’s elite clubs is that failure to control possession often leads to further problems. For instance, Inter may have walked away with a significant result, but the underlying numbers suggested they were incredibly fortunate to do so.

When teams sacrifice possession, it is usually a tradeoff between quantity and quality. The side pinning their opponent back may take more shots, but often from questionable angles with multiple defenders in the way (the latter being something good xG models account for). Conversely, the side sitting back to defend may take fewer shots but are typically more efficient with their attempts.

Bayern dominated in all the classic categories expected of a favourite. The Bavarian giants outshot Inter 20-10 and had three times as many penalty area touches (48-16) while creating an extreme field tilt of 86.5 to 13.5 per cent.

The concern for Inter isn’t that Bayern dominated in those ways; it’s that the Italian side didn’t reap the rewards you would expect from a team focusing on defending and countering. Inter’s average xG on their 10 shots was a mere 0.08, well below the average of all teams in Europe’s big five leagues. On the other hand, Bayern’s xG per shot was 0.12, a mark well above the big five average (for reference, Barcelona and three other clubs lead Europe’s big five leagues with a mark of 0.14).

The penalty area touches also indicate the hosts weren’t passively controlling the ball against a team known for crowding the box. That Bayern were still threatening despite the bodies their visitors attempted to put between their goal and the ball was promising – and confusing.

Expected Threat (xT) is a metric that accounts for where passes are played, not just which passes lead to shots. A team constantly finding open space but failing to get on the end of dangerous balls would fair well in this metric. Yet Bayern’s xT was three times greater than an opponent, who, according to the scoreline, were carving them up on the break.

Although certain writers on this site have been banging the Inter drum since early in the knockout rounds, the first leg painted a picture that Bayern might be on the brink of busting down the proverbial door. The second leg might see that prediction become a reality, so place your bets accordingly.

Best bet to consider: Bayern to qualify –  (12/5).

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Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Kylian Mbappé: Justin Setterfield / Getty Images)

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