Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Tyler Mahle emerging as a must-add early in the season

How is Tyler Mahle getting away with this? Actually, forget “getting away with this” – how is Tyler Mahle dominating like this? 

Mahle struck out nine against the Angels Tuesday night, and he did it while averaging just 92 mph with his four-seam fastball, up from his season average, slightly, but still well below the league average. Now, of course, succeeding with limited fastball velocity isn’t that weird, but usually, pitchers who do have some other exceptional pitch they can lean on – Shota Imanaga‘s splitter, say, or Sean Manaea‘s slider. 

Not Mahle. He generated 11 of his 18 swinging strikes Tuesday with that four-seamer, and for the season he is now sitting on a 41% whiff rate with his four-seamer,  a mark only one pitcher who threw at least 100 four-seamers last season bested – and that was Mason Montgomery, a reliever who only threw 9.2 innings last season, and he averaged 97.3 mph with his four-seamer. Again, Mahle is sitting right around 92 mph this season. 

How much of an outlier is this? Well, among all major-league pitchers this season, the average whiff rate on four-seamers between 91 and 93 mph is 20.8%. Last season, among 11 starters who averaged between 91 and 93 mph on their four-seamers, the average whiff rate was 23.6%, with a high of 28.7% from Lance Lynn. Mahle is getting better results from his four-seamer than just about any pitcher in baseball right now, and he’s doing so while ranking 121st in four-seamer velocity among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched. And that four-seamer is his only pitch with a whiff rate over 20% that he has thrown more than 10% of the time. 

So, it’s a fluke, right?

In all likelihood yes, though more because Mahle has shown next to zero ability to stay healthy in recent years than with concerns about his performance. I don’t think he’ll sustain anything like a 40% whiff rate on his four-seamer, but it should continue to be a very good pitch – he gets a ton of vertical movement on the pitch, which helps it play up better than the velocity would make you think, and he managed a very solid 26% whiff rate with the pitch in his limited time last season. 

And it’s not like he’s a one-pitch pitcher. The rest of his arsenal hasn’t been great in his first few starts, but he did have five whiffs with his splitter Tuesday, and that pitch had a 28% whiff rate last season. I don’t think Mahle is likely to remain an elite strikeout pitcher like he was Monday, and the injury track record means there’s a pretty good chance things go sideways at some point either way.

But coming off a start like Tuesday’s – which followed up 12 one-run innings in his previous two starts, though with just nine combined strikeouts – I do think it’s worth viewing Mahle as a high-priority waiver-wire add in any of the 43% of CBS Fantasy leagues where he’s currently available, especially at a time when not many pitchers seem to be emerging otherwise. Remember, Mahle did have a 210-strikeout season back in 2021, so if he can tap into anything like that upside again, he’s going to be very useful.

Mahle is one of the top waiver-wire targets out there right now. Let’s see who else we’re adding from Tuesday’s action: 

Wednesday’s top waiver-wire targets

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics (56%) – I’m just kind of reading the tea leaves here because, despite a lot of chatter, I’m not sure there’s smoke here. Kurtz was the No. 4 pick in last year’s draft, and he’s already looking like there isn’t much left for him to learn down on the farm. Kurtz has homered seven times in his first 14 games while sporting a 94.9 mph average exit velocity, and he’s doing that after playing just 12 games in the minors last season. And if you’re thinking that there’s nowhere for him to play for the Athletics, that may be short-sighted. Brent Rooker made his second appearance in the outfield Tuesday, with his first coming just a few days ago. If Rooker can handle an outfield corner more or less full time that would make for a seamless transition for Kurtz, who could either slide into the DH spot or play his natural first base, moving Tyler Soderstrom to DH. But here’s another sign that the A’s are seriously considering promoting Kurtz – according to an MLB.com report Tuesday, the A’s front office is considering the possibility of having Soderstrom play third base. That would seem to be a less-than-ideal move for the former catcher, but that they are even considering it suggests the A’s really think Kurtz can be an impact bat from day one. He’s gotta be the top minor-league stash right now. 

Austin Hays, OF, Reds (17%) – Hays made his return from the IL Tuesday and wasted no time in providing a boost for the Reds lineup, homering off Luis Castillo and adding another 105.5 mph single. Hays was an above-average hitter from 2021 through 2023 – Camden Yards’ deep left field might have made you miss it – and his struggles last seem likely to have been, at least in part, due to an infection he dealt with. Reds is probably a must-roster player in any five-outfielder league, making him one of the most under-rostered players in Fantasy right now. 

Griffin Conine, OF, Marlins (6%) – The hardest-hit ball of the season in the majors now belongs to Conine, who hit a double 117.4 mph Tuesday, one of two doubles and three hard-hit balls in the game. He’s up to a .320/.393/.480 line for the season, and it might not even be a fluke – his .367 wOBA is backed up by a very solid .344 expected mark, and he’s striking out just 25% of the time in the early going. Conine has always had legitimate power, but an inability to make consistent contact has doomed him to Quad-A status. If the contact gains are at all real, there could actually be something here with Conine, at least for deeper leagues. 

Logan Henderson, SP, Brewers (6%) – The Brewers recalled Henderson from Triple-A Tuesday, with the expectation he’ll join the club’s rotation at some point in the coming days. He’s not a can’t-miss prospect – he ranked 88th in FanGraphs.com’s top-100 entering the season, which was one of the more bullish rankings out there – but there’s a lot to like about him. He has a very good fastball/changeup combo, with a cutter and new curveball mixed in this season, and that led to a 3.32 ERA and 32.8% strikeout rate across three levels of the minors last season. The Brewers are desperate for pitching help, and they’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle with Henderson, who is worth a look in deeper leagues. 

Bobby Miller, SP, Dodgers (14) – Let’s keep the trend rolling with Miller, a former top prospect who has fallen on incredibly hard times over the past year. He is expected to be called up to start Wednesday’s game against the Rockies, as the Dodgers continue to cycle through pitching prospects on a seemingly daily basis. Miller was a disaster last season while pitching through shoulder issues, and he’s walked 11 over his first 12 innings at Triple-A this season, so my expectations are pretty low here. But he was basically everyone’s favorite breakout pick at pitcher last season, so the talent is obvious. Maybe something clicks this time and he forces the Dodgers to keep him around. I’m not betting on it, but I could see it.