Spencer Strider returns to the mound — but don’t rush to rank him as a top-10 starter

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If you told me this morning that a pitcher would record 10 strikeouts in Wednesday’s Braves-Blue Jays game, I would have bet my life savings that it would be Spencer Strider. But in yet another “you can’t predict baseball” moment, it was soft-tossing veteran Chris Bassitt who fanned 10 batters en route to the Blue Jays tying a team record with 19 punchouts in a single game.

You don’t need to read an article about Bassitt, who deserves credit for starting the season in fine fashion after being an afterthought in many drafts. Because no matter how the game went today, the story was destined to be about the return of Strider, who made his first major league start in over a year.

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Fantasy managers and Braves fans were anxious to see how the 26-year-old would fare. After all, Strider punched out 281 batters in 2023 and is arguably the best starter in baseball when he’s in peak form.

In the end, it was an effective season debut for the right-hander. Over five-plus innings, Strider struck out five batters while issuing five hits and one walk. He surrendered two runs, with one coming on a solo homer by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during the top of the sixth inning. Perhaps more importantly, Strider’s velocity was solid but a little bit lower than expected, as his fastball average of 95.4 mph was lower than his career mark of 97.6 mph.

To be clear, this wasn’t peak Strider. He needed 97 pitches to get 15 outs, and he sometimes struggled to put batters away. That’s an unusual problem for someone who consistently racks up eye-popping whiff totals, which include 27 strikeouts across 13.2 innings in the minors this year. Still, the start was good enough to conclude that Strider is back. The question for fantasy managers now moves to where the Ohio native should be ranked among starting pitchers. Let’s take a look:

Question 1: How many innings will Strider throw?

Perhaps the best news today is that Strider was allowed to go out for the sixth inning and threw 97 pitches. Seeing him log a normal workload in his initial start should allow managers to conclude that he will be able to deliver plenty of 6+ inning starts on days when he is more efficient.

Question 2: How many strikeouts can Strider accumulate?

Strider owns a lifetime 13.5 K/9 rate. Let’s assume that he falls slightly short of that extreme level this year, since he’s returning from surgery and didn’t have his best velocity today. Producing an 11.5 K/9 rate and averaging nearly six innings per start the rest of the way would allow Strider to reach the 200-strikeout plateau, which is a level that was reached by just 11 pitchers last year.

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Question 3: What kind of ratios can we expect?

Some managers may forget that Strider was at times frustrating during his 281-strikeout 2023 season, as he logged a mediocre 3.86 ERA. The righty entered today’s start with a lifetime 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 329.2 innings. His 2.56 career FIP indicates that he may have been somewhat unlucky in past seasons. I’ll predict a 3.40 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, which are both marks that would have ranked in the range of 20th among qualified pitchers last year.

Conclusion: Where to rank Strider?

Although the Braves ace may be the No. 1 overall starter in 2026 drafts, it’s too soon to put him there. Reliable, elite starters such as Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler are safer bets for the coming months. I’ll also take Cole Ragans and Garrett Crochet, who both have special strikeout skills. And Logan Gilbert is consistently excellent.

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Once we move past those six starters, Strider enters the conversation. But until we see a bump in velocity, he ranks below the slow-starting aces with elite upside, which includes Chris Sale, Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez. However, I can make a strong case to rank Strider ahead of those who have limited track records, such as Spencer Schwellenbach, or those who are reliable but have limited upside, such as Logan Webb or Max Fried.

For now, we can rank Strider in the rank of SP12-15, making him a low-end ace or high-end No. 2 starter. Those who want to gauge his trade value can take a look at the Yahoo Trade Market, which shows that he has recently been part of 1-for-1 deals for Julio Rodríguez, Matt McLain and Oneil Cruz. My best advice is for those who are interested in Strider to acquire him now because he will soon have a 10-strikeout outing that will cause his value to surge.

This news was originally published on this post .

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