Celtics-Magic NBA playoff series: Whom to watch, X-factors and predictions

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For the first time since Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins and Glen “Big Baby” Davis clashed against Dwight Howard and Marcin Gortat in the 2010 Eastern Conference finals, the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic will face each other in the playoffs. The first-round series between the Eastern Conference’s second and seventh seeds will begin at 3:30 p.m. Sunday.

To preview the series, The Athletic brought together its Celtics beat writer, Jay King, and its Magic beat writer, Josh Robbins, and asked them to preview the matchup.

How would you summarize the Celtics’ and Magic’s regular seasons?

Jay King: What’s up, Josh? I am looking forward to covering what should be an intense and physical series. The Magic finished the regular season ranked second in defensive efficiency. They dented opposing offenses even more than usual down the stretch while winning nine of their final 12 games, plus another game against the Atlanta Hawks in the Play-In Tournament.

Without the injured Jalen Suggs, what has led to Orlando’s late-season revival? And, in this matchup, what do the Magic need to focus on to hold down Boston’s high-powered offense?

Josh Robbins: I’ll let Magic coach Jamahl Mosley answer that question, because I posed it to him a couple of weeks ago. “A very strange season,” Mosley said. “I think that’s the best way to describe it. The injuries to start off the year changed the way in which you approach things, the way in which you have to dissect things. Ultimately, the only way I can describe it is it feels like seven seasons in one.”

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner missed significant time with oblique-muscle tears. Jalen Suggs is out for the season because of a knee injury. Sixth man Moe Wagner tore an ACL in December.

The Magic entered the season with high expectations that they haven’t fulfilled, and the injuries and poor shooting have been the primary reasons.

King: The Celtics were steadier. Except for an 11-10 lull in December and January, they rolled throughout most of the season to finish second in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating and second in net rating overall. Kristaps Porziņģis missed 40 games and Jaylen Brown picked up a persistent knee issue late in the regular season, but Boston otherwise dealt with few significant health concerns. The Celtics saved their best basketball for the end of the regular season while going 22-5 after the All-Star break. They have used their rare continuity well.

Brown’s injury might limit him in the postseason. He received injections for his knee shortly before the end of the regular season and was on a minutes restriction beginning in mid-March. Though the Celtics have sounded optimistic about his form at practices, he remains their biggest question mark with Game 1 days away.

What conclusions can you draw from the teams’ games against each other during the regular season?

King: Not many. The Celtics sat all of their starters during the final regular-season matchup, which they lost 96-76. The Magic were without Franz Wagner in January when they fell to Boston 121-94. And two days before Christmas, the Celtics and Magic were short-handed during a game Orlando captured 108-104. Boston was without Jayson Tatum, and the Magic were missing Wagner and Banchero, among other regulars.

“You can look back and watch film on those things, but it’s an entirely new team that we’re playing against, and we’re a different team than they’ve seen us last,” Tatum said. “So playoffs are different.”

Though those games likely left few hints about how the coming playoff series will go, Orlando’s size and physicality have historically bothered the Celtics somewhat. It should be an entertaining clash between Boston, which set records for most 3-point attempts and 3-point makes in a single season, and Orlando, which easily allowed the fewest 3-point attempts.

Robbins: I agree 100 percent with Jay here. The absences of so many key players from both teams make it a fool’s errand to put much stock in Orlando’s winning two of the teams’ three regular-season games.

But there’s one exception. The Magic prioritize limiting the number of opponents’ 3-point attempts, and that’s a key reason they have an elite defense. The Celtics averaged 48 attempts from deep throughout the entire regular season, but the Magic limited them to 33 attempts in December’s Magic victory and 37 attempts in the Celtics’ blowout win in mid-January. Mosley and assistant coach Dale Osbourne will make limiting the volume of 3-point attempts a key part of their defensive game plan in this series.

The Magic, plagued by injuries, have had difficulty scoring all season. (Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)

For things to go right for the team you cover, what has to happen?

King: The fight over the 3-point arc could determine whether this series becomes a close one. The Celtics want to shoot and shoot and shoot some more, while the Magic, like Josh pointed out, do the best job of preventing 3-point attempts.

In general, the Celtics need to stay disciplined. The Magic have shooters they will feel comfortable leaving at the arc, and that should give Boston a good chance of protecting the rim in this series. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla lean heavily on double-big lineups, which have typically fared extremely well for the Celtics this season. Luke Kornet, who has been one of the NBA’s best backup big men, could have a significant role. The Magic will have serious trouble scoring consistently if they aren’t able to find ways to punish Boston’s size.

Still, in Banchero and Wagner, Orlando has two powerful wings who can live at the free-throw line. I would guess Mazzulla will emphasize avoiding fouls against those guys. This Magic squad has had problems scoring all season; handing them freebies just doesn’t seem wise. If the Celtics keep the game in the half court, where the Magic ranked 27th in offensive efficiency, it’s hard to imagine Orlando scoring enough to keep pace. But ugly offense for Boston could charge the Magic’s attack. Suggs’ absence will be felt in this series, but even without him, Orlando’s defense is mean. The Celtics will need to handle the intensity of a young and hungry team that sucks up an opponent’s comfort.

Robbins: In addition to limiting the number of Boston’s made 3s and attempted 3s, Orlando has to get more out of its offense. The Magic generated (or opponents allowed) enough wide-open 3s during the regular season, but they made only 35 percent of those wide-open attempts, the worst percentage league-wide. I’m stating the obvious here when I say they have to hit shots, but it’s still true. And whenever the Magic generate stops on defense, they have to try to push the pace and get shot attempts at the rim before the Celtics set their defense.

And finally, Orlando has to make this a physical series. Even without Suggs and Moe Wagner, Orlando still has enough size and toughness to make things difficult for Boston.

Who are the key X-factors?

King: For the Celtics, it’s Brown’s health. At playoff time, he usually guards one of the opponent’s best players while handling a heavy burden in the Celtics’ offense. His role is grueling. How many of his normal tasks will he be able to handle? And for how many minutes will he be able to handle those?

Robbins: Orlando has three key X-factors.

When he’s at his best, Cole Anthony can pour in the points off the bench, as he did in his team’s Play-In victory over Atlanta.

Anthony Black, a second-year guard who is 6 feet 7, already is an outstanding, switchable defender who disrupts shots because of his height and long arms; he, too, was key in the Play-In win, and the Magic will need him to cause the Celtics’ outstanding perimeter players problems.

Last, 6-foot-10 big Jonathan Isaac would be a perennial All-Defensive team candidate if he played the number of games and minutes required to qualify for the award; his shot-blocking can change the tenor of a game. If he can hit open corner 3s, that would be a huge bonus.

Who wins the series and why?

King: The Celtics will win in five. The Magic won’t be able to score enough. But Boston won’t come out of this series feeling great about itself. Orlando’s defense has a lot of bite.

Robbins: A Magic roster with Suggs and Moe Wagner fully healthy would have made this a great series. But even then, the Celtics would have had the edge because of their shooting skill and experience.

Now, Orlando has even less margin for error.

The Celtics will win the series, but the Magic have Banchero and enough size and toughness to steal a game or two. My prediction: Boston in five.

(Top photo of Payton Pritchard and Cole Anthony: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)

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