Red Light newsletter 🏒 | This is the first edition of The Athletic’s hockey newsletter. Sign up here to receive Red Light directly in your inbox.
We are your hockey hosts, Sean McIndoe and James Mirtle, and this is our letter ‘o news. Let’s go:
It’s Playoff Time 🔥
Who has the best chance to win the Cup? 🤔
OK, maybe a bit heavy on the emojis so far, but hey, we’re pumped to be here.
This inaugural hockey newsletter at The Athletic has been a looooong time coming — nearly a decade for folks like us who have been around a while — and it’s great timing, given the playoffs open with a doubleheader Saturday night in Winnipeg and Dallas.
Let’s start by looking at how the Stanley Cup odds are lining up, courtesy of our stats expert Dom Luszczyszyn. These factor in every team’s injury situation, up to the minute.
The full NHL playoff schedule is here. Try streaming games for free on Fubo.
McIndoe: Let’s start with the obvious. The Leafs are way too high, right? The model is based on the numbers, not the narratives, and usually that’s an advantage. But after eight years of playoff misery, and facing a rival who loves to make them miserable, do we really think the Leafs are in good shape here? (Check out our Leafs-Sens series preview here.)
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Mirtle: Yeah, there is zero chance I’d have them as a 71 percent favorite in Round 1, for starters. I think Ottawa is being underrated in general right now. The Sens were in 28th place on Dec. 1, got healthy, made some nice additions and have been the ninth-best team in the league since then! I can’t see this being a cakewalk. (Plus, you know, the whole Leafs curse thing.)
McIndoe: Since we’re talking about Canadian wild-card upset potential, can the Habs pull one off against the top-seeded Capitals?
Mirtle: Again, surely momentum has to count for something, no? Montreal has been on a 15-5-6 heater, and Washington has looked really ordinary down the stretch, winning just four of its last 12 games. And Logan Thompson has an .876 save percentage in his last 10 starts! I’m calling that as a surprisingly long series.
McIndoe: You know what had better be a long series? Dallas and Colorado. Please tell me those Stars injuries aren’t going to ruin what should be a classic. (Stars-Avs series preview.)
Mirtle: Is now a good time to mention I’m a Blackwood believer and picked the Avs to win it all? And, yes, I do think Dallas is in trouble without Miro Heiskanen. Who do you got this year, DGB?
McIndoe: I rarely get confused with a model, but maybe I will here: I’ve got the Jets to unite the country and end the drought. Elbows up, baby. Just don’t mention which country their MVP goalie is from.
For series previews and content from all eight matchups, check out The Athletic’s NHL page.
(Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
What the model man is saying 🤓
We’re going right to the source for a couple more burning questions about our playoff probabilities this year.
1. Why does your model love the Jets so much this year? Fourteen percent to win it all is a lot for a team that has had a hard time getting out of Round 1.
Luszczyszyn: The Connor Hellebuyck factor is big. Only Connor McDavid carries a similar per-game impact, and the gap between Hellebuyck and the NHL’s next best goalie is substantial. On top of that, Winnipeg’s star forwards look more dialed in this year, and the top four on defense looks better than usual thanks to Dylan Samberg. The Jets possess the puck better than ever and defend well in front of the league’s best goalie. That’s a recipe for good things in the postseason. And they’ll have home ice in every series, too.
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2. What’s the other biggest surprise for you after running the probabilities?
Luszczyszyn: The Oilers were the team to beat for most of the year, but their inconsistencies and depth issues became too big of a problem to ignore. Mix in the loss of workhorse defenseman Mattias Ekholm, and they’re now just a 50-50 bet against the Kings in Round 1 — a big drop-off from the past three years where the Oilers were 70 percent favorites each time. That series definitely caught me by surprise.
See more of Dom’s odds here. We’ll have an updated version every morning in the postseason.
Coast to Coast
🏒 Dan Robson and Katie Strang examine the story of former junior star Mike McLeod, one of five Hockey Canada players about to go on trial for an alleged sexual assault in London, Ont.
🥅 Our army of puck pundits grades out the regular season for all 32 NHL teams, from A+ to F. And three teams will be forced to go to summer school by their parents. Can you guess the non-Buffalo flops?
❓ Who should you root for in these playoffs? If you’re undecided and need a bandwagon option, McIndoe has your answer.
👁️🗨️ Think you know how the postseason will play out? Enter our prediction contest, which features one simple question (that you will get wrong).
📢 Exciting news for the PWHL: It’s expanding, and Vancouver is set to become the seventh team. Hailey Salvian has the scoop.
No Dumb Questions
(Tyler Schank / Clarkson Creative / Getty Images)
We believe that in hockey, as in life, there are no dumb questions. So if you have something you’ve always wondered about the sport, ask away by emailing us at redlight@theathletic.com. Today…
Why do so many fans seem so mad about the playoff format?
The short answer is that we just like to complain. Here’s a slightly longer answer:
The current format is based on the four divisions, with the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in each division playing each other, and the No. 1 seed playing a wild card. (Those wild cards can come from a different division, so we can’t necessarily call it a 1-vs.-4 matchup, because nothing can ever be simple in this league.)
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In theory, that works fine. But occasionally, it can lead to matchups like this year’s Stars facing the Avalanche in a series between two teams viewed as elite Cup contenders. Dallas had the league’s fifth-best record, while Colorado ranked eighth. But because they finished second and third in the Central Division, they’re stuck playing each other in Round 1. That’s too early, many fans would argue.
The alternative would be a conference-based 1-vs.-8 format, which the league used from 1994 until 2013. That makes “unfair” matchups less likely, although it doesn’t eliminate them entirely. (You’d need to go to a leaguewide 1-vs.-16 format for that, and travel and time zones makes that impractical.) The downside is you’d get fewer rivalry matchups, which the league likes. This is the fourth year in a row that the Oilers have played the Kings, which is either fun or boring, depending on your perspective.
All told, it’s not like the format makes that big of a deal. There are no easy outs in the NHL playoffs, so everyone has to beat four good teams to win the Cup. And it’s not like the Stars and Avalanche wouldn’t have to cross paths eventually if they’re truly among the best teams. You could argue the current format just pushes a few of those marquee matchups up a bit early, ensuring they actually happen.
Maybe that’s a good thing, but it doesn’t feel that way when it’s your team getting the tougher matchup. And like we said, we really do love to complain.
📫 Loved the first edition of Red Light? Check out The Athletic’s other newsletters.
Streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Top photo of Matthew Tkachuk: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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