There’s the old saying that “The draft doesn’t start until [insert specific pick]” and that may be the case when it comes to the 2025 NFL Draft and the fifth overall pick.
As the draft has crept closer, there appears to be a growing consensus on the first four picks. While there naturally could be some shakeup between now and Thursday night, the prevailing thought is that Cam Ward goes No. 1 to Tennessee, followed by some combination of Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter slotting in with the Cleveland Browns (No. 2) and New York Giants (No. 3). If those dominos falls in that manner, that would likely lead to the New England Patriots utilizing the fourth selection on Will Campbell.
And then we get to Jacksonville at No. 5.
The large majority of mock drafts that you’ve likely read throughout this spring have the Jaguars using the fifth pick on Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham. However, that may not be as much of a sure thing as those mocks suggest. When we look at the betting odds for where Jacksonville could go with the fifth pick, there isn’t a consensus from the sportsbooks. Far from it, in fact.
Of the four major books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars), three of them have Mason Graham as the favorite for the fifth pick, while Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is now the favorite to be selected in that slot at BetMGM.
| Sportsbook | Favorite to be No. 5 pick (odds) |
|---|---|
|
DraftKings Sportsbook |
Mason Graham (+125) |
|
FanDuel Sportsbook |
Mason Graham (+115) |
|
BetMGM |
Ashton Jeanty (+100) |
|
Caesars Sportsbook |
Mason Graham (+120) |
While one prospect may be favored over the other, it’s a tight race across the board. Jeanty may be the favorite at BetMGM, but Graham is not far behind in their odds at +140 to be the fifth pick. On the flip side, Jeanty is +150 to go No. 5 at DraftKings, +160 at FanDuel, and +125 at Caesars.
When looking at over/under draft position props, it further highlights how close it is between Graham and Jeanty. At DraftKings, Graham’s draft position prop of Over 5.5 is -200, meaning those odds indicate that he’s likely to miss out on being a top-five pick. However, that doesn’t jive with those odds above making him the favorite at No. 5. Meanwhile, Jeanty was +700 before the weekend to go No. 5 and is now down considerably across books. He also has better odds than Graham on DraftKings to be a top-five pick at +120 compared to Graham’s +155. As for his over/under draft position prop, the Under 6.5 is -290.
That’s quite a bit a variance as it relates to both of these prospects, specifically as it relates to their chances of going No. 5 overall or landing somewhere within that top five. With that in mind, the consensus among those mock drafts that have routinely placed Graham with the Jaguars may not be as much of a lock as it appeared throughout the pre-draft process.
This news was originally published on this post .
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