Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire 4/24: Camilo Doval, more bullpen movement, plus is it time to buy Crow-Armstrong?

How early is too early to admit you were wrong about a player?

On Wednesday, I published a column on CBSSports.com talking about five early-season breakouts I’m buying into: Max Meyer, Kristian Campbell, Tyler Soderstrom, Jung Hoo Lee, and Logan Webb. One notable name missing from that list? Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs outfielder who homered yet again Wednesday in a three-hit game, pushing his season line to .294/.339/.549. That sure looks like a breakout, so why am I not buying into it, especially after his fast finish to his rookie season? 

I’ll admit it: Yeah, I’m still skeptical. That might be at least in part because I was skeptical coming in – his “fast finish” to his rookie season was overstated, as he followed up a .933 OPS in August with just a .677 mark in September. But, I’m self aware enough to recognize that stubbornness is never a good look, so let’s focus on the good in what Crow-Armstrong is doing, and that starts with what we saw on Wednesday: He hit four batted balls at least 100 MPH! That’s really impressive! 

That’s only happened 20 times this season entering play Wednesday, and there are plenty of big names on the list who have done it: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Michael Harris, Francisco Lindor, Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Rafael Devers, and Julio Rodriguez are good company to keep, wouldn’t you say? Of course, hitting four batted balls over 100 mph isn’t proof that a player is a good hitter, unless you’re also willing to pound the table for the likes of Andrew Vaughn, Angel Martinez, or Austin Wynns (who did it five times just a few days ago!). Still, good hitters out number the bad ones on that list, so that’s certainly a good sign for Crow-Armstrong.

And Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball much better this season than last, as his .385 expected wOBA on contact entering Wednesday’s game shows – that was just .343 last season. His average exit velocity is up to 89.5 mph and his barrel rate is up to 9%, so there’s agreement across the board – Crow-Armstrong is doing a lot more damage than he did last season.

The problem is his plate discipline. It’s bad. He still swings at way too many bad pitches, as his 38% chase rate shows. Now, Crow-Armstrong can still do damage on those pitches – his homer Wednesday was several inches below the zone, for instance – but he’s making his life harder with his poor approach at the plate. He has improved his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, and he’s now approaching average there, but the overall approach still leaves a lot to be desired from a guy who has decent, but still not elite power.

Of course, here’s the thing with Crow-Armstrong: He doesn’t need to even be a good hitter to be a good Fantasy option. Let’s say his start to the season is a fluke. Let’s say his .311 expected wOBA is a better reflection of his actual skill set than his .361 actual mark (entering play Wednesday). He’s still a pretty good player for Fantasy because of his speed (10 steals on the season, a 50-plus steal pace), and his defense ensures he’ll stay in the lineup. 

So, while I don’t buy Crow-Armstrong’s breakout, necessarily, I do think I’m ready to accept likely defeat on my preseason bust call. And, given how slow I am to change my mind on players early in the season – much to the chagrin of Fantasy Baseball Today listeners – that’s no small thing. Crow-Armstrong has been very impressive, even if I don’t think he’ll be quite this impressive moving forward. 

Here’s what else you need to know from Wednesday’s action around MLB, beginning with a bunch of potential closer news:  

Thursday’s top waiver-wire targets

Camilo Doval, RP, Giants (19%) – Uh oh, Ryan Walker is starting to falter a little bit. Okay, that might be overstating things a bit – he has allowed runs in consecutive outings, but it’s also just the third time he has allowed any runs all season. But he clearly hasn’t been as dominant as he was last season, and he has now failed to finish his last two innings, while watching his strikeout rate fall from 32.1% to below 20% so far. And, for as small as the sample size of him struggling here is, it’s not like we have a huge sample size of him being a dominant reliever – it’s basically just the 80 innings he threw last season, more or less. Doval is, of course, a former All-Star who lost the job last season, and he has gotten the job done so far, albeit with a big dip in his own strikeout rate. Because of Doval’s history in the role, I’m putting him at the top of the list of speculative closer additions today. 

Cade Smith, RP, Guardians (35%) – If Emmanuel Clase is healthy, I don’t think there’s any real chance Smith gets more than a few saves. But … Clase isn’t 100% healthy right now, which explains why Smith got the save Monday and Tuesday for them. Clase is dealing with shoulder discomfort after Sunday’s outing, and while it doesn’t sound like it’s considered serious right now, it could help explain a little bit of why Clase hasn’t been his dominant self so far this season. If Clase gets cleared to pitch, I expect him to be the team’s closer, but Smith is worth adding as a speculative source, because he would be a truly elite closer himself if he does get that chance, what with a 1.83 ERA and 35% strikeout rate since the start of last season. That there’s any amount of uncertainty with Clase makes Smith worth adding. Just in case. 

Porter Hodge, RP, Cubs (25%) – Ryan Pressly isn’t just out of the picture as the Cubs closer, but there’s a window here. Pressly has been dealing with some knee issues lately and had fluid drained from it, with Cubs manager Craig Counsell saying he hopes Pressly will be back Friday. But Hodge got the opportunity Wednesday to shut the door on the Dodgers, and he struck out Shohei Ohtani and then sat Mookie Betts down to close it out. Hodge has allowed eight runs in 12.2 innings of work this season, so it’s not like he’s been lights out, but I do think he’s probably the better pitcher out of the two in the Cubs bullpen (his underlying numbers are much better), and if he gets a few more chances to prove himself, this could turn into a full-blown committee – and I think Hodge probably wins if it’s a head’s up competition. 

Luke Keaschall, 2B, Twins (31%) – I’ve written about Keaschall three or four days in a row now, but he just keeps doing noteworthy things, so don’t blame me! He went 1 for 3 Wednesday, which isn’t exactly noteworthy, except that he stole another two bases, giving him five in as many games. He’s got the green light and is taking advantage of it. Is he going to lead the league in steals? Almost certainly not – this is a guy with a career-high for a season of just 23 last year. But he’s clearly got plenty of speed and is making things happen for a Twins team desperate for help on offense. I think he’s sticking around. 

Reese Olson, SP, Tigers (65%) – This was the blueprint for success for Olson. He got himself into enough pitchers’ counts and avoided damage with his fastballs, which allowed him to throw his changeup and slider in advantageous spots, and they feasted, generating nine and eight whiffs, respectively. Olson’s slider and changeup have been terrific swing-and-miss pitches, but his fastballs have always held him back. He’s trying to address that by throwing his sinker more than his four-seamer this season, but the results have been mixed. However, he has two scoreless starts in a row and a quality start a couple before that, so maybe he’s starting to figure it out. The upside is there, he just has to find a way to tap into it more consistently. There’s no guarantee he does that moving forward, but the path is there. 

Andrew Heaney, SP, Pirates (43%) – I’m gonna be honest: I don’t buy it. It was another terrific start from Heaney, who had nine strikeouts in six shutout innings against the Angels – though I will point out that this was now the fifth time a starter has had at least nine strikeouts against the Angels in their past nine games. Of course, he’s allowed one or fewer run in four of five starts now, and that includes a 10-strikeout effort against the Yankees a few weeks back, so it’s not just about the hapless Angels. But I don’t think there’s much to buy here – he’s throwing slower than he did last season and doesn’t have a single pitch with a whiff rate over 25% entering this start. Sometimes mediocre pitchers get in a zone and pitch really well for a few weeks, and I think that’s what we’re seeing here. Heaney is a two-start pitcher for Week 6, but with the Cubs crushing everyone, I’m not exactly rushing out to add him. 

Lucas Giolito, SP, Red Sox (34%) – I don’t expect much from Giolito as he works his way back from an elbow surgery that has kept him out since 2023. After all, he hasn’t had an ERA below 4.80 since 2021, and now he’s trying to come back from serious elbow surgery and has already had setbacks along the way. But I’m willing to add him just in case there’s something left here. His fastball velocity is right around where it was before the injury, though not close to where it was when he was actually good – though his slider and changeup velocity are, which could help those pitches play up enough to get the swings and misses he needs. Like I said, I’m skeptical, but with Giolito’s return set for next Thursday, I’m open-minded. For exactly one start.