NBA Draft decisions: Will the top 2025 transfer portal stars stay or go?

The 2025 college basketball transfer portal may be closed, but there are still numerous national-caliber programs looking to make significant additions to their roster before next season. The challenge is that many of the best available players in the portal still aren’t sure they’ll be playing college basketball next season. In fact, the seven best available players, according to the last 247Sports Portal Rankings, have also declared for the NBA Draft. 

The No. 1-ranked overall player in the transfer portal, Yaxel Lendeborg from UAB, has also declared for the draft. If he does opt to return to college basketball for the 2025-26 season, he’ll suit up for the Michigan Wolverines. Lendeborg is the only player who appears on this list who has is committed to a school as of Sunday night. 

While the stay/go NBA draft decisions of the transfer portal’s top players have annually been a key variable in shaping college basketball’s pre-season perspective, this year is different because of the amount of money being thrown around under the umbrella of “NIL.” It used to be that the NBA, or other professional ranks by extension, was where players needed to go if they or their family needed to make money right away, but that is no longer the case. Think about a two-way deal, the common contract for a second round pick, which allows players to split time between their NBA team and its G League affiliate. They aren’t guaranteed deals and they paid $578,577 last season. That’s notably less than said second round pick can make in college. 

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College basketball’s freewheeling era before the settlement of House v. NCAA also means possible first round picks are choosing college. The 30th pick in June’s NBA draft will receive a first-year starting salary of 2.7 million. A fringe Round 1 player like Rob Wright got a reported $3.5 million to commit to BYU, while several others have reportedly eclipsed the three-million mark as well. Players only reach that three-million mark in the NBA Draft if they’re one of the first 24 picks. Of course, those NBA deals are multi-year contracts, but even then, only the first two years are guaranteed with team options in years three and four.

With that context accounted for, let’s look at where each of these players currently projects in the NBA Draft landscape. We’ll let you do the math, but suffice it to say that if it’s only about next year’s earning potential, most of these guys should think long and hard about a return to college.

Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan (Ranked No. 1 in poratl)

Draft range: Picks 20-40

Lendeborg is a very intriguing NBA prospect. He has the body type (6-foot-9, 240 pounds, and a 7-foot-2 wingspan), versatility (17.7 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists), and defensive metrics (3.5 stocks per game) that are all very enticing. He has a legit chance to be a first-round selection and earn one of those 30 guaranteed multi-year deals, but he’s not a lock. There are reasons to be legitimately on the fence. His representation is no doubt scouring the market for a multi-year promise — those types of promises can and do happen behind closed doors, especially if a prospect slips to the second round. 

The bottom line: Lendeborg profiles as a player who could put himself in position to be a lottery pick next year, in a similar role to what Danny Wolf played at Michigan this year, but with more glaring natural talent. Michigan, which is coming off a 

PJ Haggerty, Guard (No. 2 in portal)

Draft Range: Second Round

Haggerty had a terrific year at Memphis. He put up almost 22 points, six rebounds, four assists, and two steals per game. They weren’t empty stats, either. He had the highest usage on a team that won 29 games in a season that began with quite a bit of controversy. Penny Hardaway has said that Haggerty is “really, fully focusing on the NBA” and yet there has been very little, if any, buzz about Haggerty being a potential first-round pick. Simultaneously, we’ve heard reports that he may be looking for as much as $4 million out of the portal. Ultimately, there can sometimes be a difference between great college players and what NBA decision-makers view as great prospects for their league. Haggerty is probably an example of that.

The bottom line: If Haggerty gets anywhere near $4 million to play college, he should run to it, because the chances he makes even half that in the NBA next year are very low.

RJ Luis Jr., F/Wing (No. 4 in portal)

Draft Range: Late First to Early Second Round

Luis was the Big East Player of the Year after averaging 18 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game, but of course was benched down the stretch of St. John’s NCAA Tournament loss to Arkansas. He’s a big and physical wing who puts constant pressure on the rim and has a throwback style mid-range game. His three-point shooting needs to get better for NBA standards, and his defense tends to come in correlation to his offense, but he’s likely to hear his name called on draft night and may even have a chance to sneak his way into the first round if he works out and interviews well. 

The bottom line: While the money is very likely still better in college than the NBA, Luis has already publicly acknowledged that his stock may never be higher than it is right now. Go pro, young man. 

Draft Range: Second Round to Undrafted

Williams, formerly of Texas Tech, was one of the smartest and most versatile frontcourt players in the country this year. While his 15.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game are impressive, they don’t even tell the whole story. It was Williams’ ability to operate at various spots on the floor and in different types of offensive actions that made him such a versatile mismatch problem and, consequently, a primary domino for a Texas Tech squad that went 28-9. 

Projecting Williams to the NBA is a little less clear, though. He’s not a dynamic athlete, shot a career-low 34% from three last season, and has somewhat limited defensive foot speed. 

The bottom line: While his intellect and versatility might still allow him to crack an NBA roster, there’s very little doubt that his earning potential is superior in college next season than it would be in any pro ranks.

Draft Range: Second Round to Undrafted

This is the second consecutive year that Watkins declared for the draft and simultaneously put his name in the portal. A year ago, he opted to return to Florida State and ended up second team All-ACC after averaging 18.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. The high usage role, though, isn’t necessarily one that translates to the NBA, where his length (measured 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10.75 wingspan), athleticism, and defensive upside are all assets. While Watkins shot just 32% from behind the arc this year, he was able to knock down 39% of his open catch-and-shoot threes. He had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio and is not likely to be much of a ball-handler at the next level. 

The bottom line: There is still very little traction for him in the first round, and so a two-way deal is the most likely scenario if he stays in the draft. Conversely, the bidding in college basketball would likely start at about two-and-a-half times that.

Draft Range: First to Early Second Round

This is an interesting one. Fland looked to be trending as a potential first-round or even lottery pick in the first half of the 2024-25 season when he was playing with notably more explosiveness than we saw in high school. He showed bursts of being an elite on-ball defender while simultaneously handling the point guard position with more ease than anticipated (5.1 assists vs. 1.4 turnovers).

But Fland’s production took a notable dive once Arkansas entered SEC play. He shot just 28% from the floor through five games, and unfortunately, he never got the chance to bounce back because a thumb injury required surgery in late January. Fland certainly still has a chance to hear his name called in the first round and could likely attract guaranteed deals even if he slips to the second. 

The bottom line: The numbers could be close, so it’s likely to come down to the due diligence of his representation as they source out the best options in both college and the draft. If he gets no guarantees from the NBA, he’ll command top dollar in the college ranks.

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Draft Range: Late First to Early Second Round

If Fland’s chances to impress NBA scouts were cut short, then Coward’s were cut even shorter. He played just six games at Washington State before suffering a rotator-cuff injury, and yet he still made quite an impression in those two weeks with averages of averaging 17.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and nearly two blocks on 56% shooting from the floor, 40% from three, and 84% from the free-throw line. A two-time transfer who began at D-3 Willamette before blossoming into an All-Conference player in two years at Eastern Washington, Coward has both a versatile attack and all the measurables as a 6-foot-6 wing with a reported 7-feet wingspan. He’s much more likely to end up in the second round than the first, but he could be a sleeper name. In college, he’ll have a chance to prove himself at the highest levels of the game.

The bottom line: College probably has the higher pay day, but there’s also something to be said for going when people are intrigued and not yet picking apart your deficiencies.

Draft Range: Second Round to Undrafted

A 25-year-old wing who still has a year of college eligibility, there are claims that Baker-Mazara initially signed a contract to return to Auburn for roughly a million dollars, but then put his name in the portal after the Tigers reportedly signed Keyshawn Hall for about double that. So, while the circumstances around his college valuation remain very pertinent today, any of those numbers are bigger than what he is likely to earn next year if he were to chase the NBA. I’m not sure of a credible outlet that projects him to be a draft pick at this point, which means that a two-way contract is probably the best-case scenario. 

The bottom line: Baker-Mazara Is probably headed back to college; the questions are where and whether or that alleged initial contract had a buyout.