NBA Mock Draft: Cooper Flagg to the Nets? Here’s a wild pre-lottery scenario that could happen

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Since the NBA flattened the draft lottery odds in 2019, the three teams with the worst records all have a 14% chance of landing the first pick.

On three occasions — in 2019, 2023, and 2024 — two of the three teams with 14% odds ended up falling out of the top three entirely. While it’s a deflating moment for fans and front offices, it’s a possibility worth preparing for: Mathematically, that’s actually the most likely outcome on lottery night with a 50.9% probability of happening.

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What hasn’t happened yet is a full wipeout: all three of the worst teams fall out of the top three. There’s only a 15.7% probability of that happening, but now in the seventh year with these new lottery odds, maybe we’re due for it.

And so that’s the scenario this latest mock draft explores: What happens if the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets all don’t end up in the top three? It would be a crushing blow for each franchise, but in all likelihood at least one or two of them will experience that pain on draft night so it’s a possibility worth exploring.

Below is the first round for my mock. You can find this mock, plus a full second round and scouting reports for every single prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft Guide, which you can explore here.

Let’s get to the first round:

The Nets have a clean slate this offseason, so Flagg would be joining a team that could go in any sort of direction whether it’s a slow build or a quick turnaround. As a do-it-all forward who hustles like a madman, makes his teammates better as a passer, and has dialed in a knockdown jumper, he could fit anywhere. He’s both the best offensive and defensive prospect in this draft class, making him the safest No. 1 pick in ages. It’s his growth as a shot creator that will decide if he reaches his All-Star floor or soars to his Hall of Fame ceiling.

Harper is a big-bodied lefty combo guard with NBA blood in his veins, as the son of Ron Harper, who was a 20/5/5 guy before winning five titles as a role player. Like his father, Harper has a high floor with the skill, poise, and playmaking instincts to dictate the game at his pace, skills that could really help in New Orleans given Dejounte Murray is recovering from a torn Achilles. But the fate of Harper’s jumper will determine whether he’s an All-Star or just one of the NBA’s many solid guards, which makes him an imperfect fit on paper next to Zion Williamson.

Sixers fans would be happy they get to keep their pick. Bailey is a ridiculous shot-making machine, capable of splashing contested jumpers from every spot on the floor and with the swagger of a throwback bucket-getter. But his shooting consistency, plus his raw edges as a shot creator and defender, need sanding down to turn him into a full-on star. But Bailey isn’t a prospect who could help right away, so there’d be a great debate among Sixers fans whether his acquisition should signal a new future focus or if he should be utilized as a trade piece to bolster the present.

Jalen Green isn’t that guy. That much is clear watching the Rockets this postseason. If Green were traded, Edgecombe would make sense as a replacement as an explosive, high-motor wing who flies out of nowhere for poster dunks and chase-down blocks. He pairs his elite athleticism with a knockdown spot-up jumper and fearless slashing. Though he needs to improve his shot creation to become more of a primary creator, any trades the Rockets make would separately address that need.

With Isaiah Collier and Keyonte George already on the roster, can the Jazz really afford to draft another guard like Jeremiah Fears or Tre Johnson? Perhaps Utah would go in that direction since Collier and George both have shaky shots. Maybe neither of them are the guy. But they’ve both shown enough flashes to continue investing in them when Fears and Johnson aren’t guarantees to thrive anyway. Going with Knueppel would better fit Utah’s youth movement. Knueppel brings more than just a sharpshooter’s stroke thanks to his brainy pick-and-roll playmaking and crafty scoring feel. He’s got a slick midrange bag and strength scoring inside, but to become a player that takes over games he’ll need to overcome his average athleticism. The Jazz could afford to be patient with him.

Bub Carrington showed real promise as a rookie point guard for the Wizards, and Jordan Poole had the best 3-point shooting season of his career. Are we sure the Wizards would take another guard like Jeremiah Fears or Tre Johnson? If Poole gets traded, then sure. But if not, it might make sense to double down on defense. Maluach and Alex Sarr could develop into a highly versatile frontcourt duo since both can theoretically space the floor on offense and offer switchability on defense. And the Wizards can be patient with Maluach since the South Sudan native has a raw skill-set and didn’t start playing basketball until he was 13.

LaMelo Ball is Charlotte’s point guard today. But how sure are we that he’s the point guard for the long term? Fears is a dynamic guard with a twitchy attacking style and a knack for coming through as a clutch shooter. He was one of college basketball’s youngest freshmen, and it showed with his shaky decision-making as a shooter and passer. But he has a feel for shot creation and a handle that lets him get anywhere on the floor, so he may only need time to emerge as a star. And in the meantime, his skill-set would allow him to play alongside LaMelo.

The Raptors could use a long-term guard, so Johnson makes sense as a clutch shot-maker who can catch fire from all over the floor, drilling step-backs and off-screen jumpers with ease. But he needs to continue developing his point guard skills while also honing his shot selection and dramatically improving his defense.

Queen’s leaning buzzer-beating game-winner to send Maryland to the Sweet 16 is one of the highlights of March Madness, and it captured why he’s such a highly touted prospect as a burly big with guard-like handles who dazzles with spin moves, and crafty finishes. Can you imagine pairing him with Victor Wembanyama in the Spurs’ frontcourt? Wemby would cover for all the concerns about Queen’s interior defense, instead allowing Queen to do what he’s better at and roam the perimeter and help inside. And offensively, Wemby’s shooting prowess eases the pressure on Queen to develop his own jumper. But if Queen translates his velvet touch to the perimeter, he very well could become a centerpiece. For now, his interior scoring, playmaking chops and magnetic rebounding alone give him tantalizing potential.

The Trail Blazers made amazing progress this season across the board, and following the All-Star Break they had a top-five defensive rating. Murray-Boyles would serve as a double down on that identity since he operates like a defensive savant the way he locks down every position, uses his ninja-quick hands to swipe at the ball, and inhales rebounds. He’s a special defensive presence, and offensively he’s a bulldozer finisher with a playmaking feel. Improving his jumper would move him out of tweener territory and into All-Star status.

With Kyrie Irving sidelined for most of next season, the Mavericks will need some support in the backcourt. Richardson is a skilled combo guard with a lethal midrange game and a poised pick-and-roll feel, looking like he downloaded the experience of his NBA veteran father, Jason Richardson. Jase didn’t inherit his father’s height or dunk contest athleticism though, so his smaller stature could cap his upside. For Dallas, he could serve more of a primary role early on before taking a backseat once Kyrie returns.

The Bulls were third in 3-point attempts per game but only 13th in percentage. They clearly want to be a high volume and high efficiency scoring team. Maybe McNeeley can help since he projects as a sharpshooting wing with superb instincts moving with the ball, and the touch to splash from deep ranges. Though he doesn’t project as a primary shot creator, his feel as a connective passer gives him the skill to fit into any type of offense like Chicago’s with multiple points of creation.

The Hawks have Trae Young but it’d still be beneficial to add some more creators by his side. Jakucionis is a slick shot-creator with a creative passing gene and a fearless scoring ability, carving up defenses with crafty finishes, step-back jumpers, and jaw-dropping passes. But as a freshman he’d follow up those highlights with turnover brain-farts that derail the hype train. Playing with Trae would ease the demand on him, likely leading to more efficient results.

Maybe the Spurs would actually look to package both of their lottery picks in a trade to move up in the draft, or in a trade for a star. But if they stay put then Demin would make for an interesting fit as a big guard who has a rare ability at his size to make dazzling passes. But he’s also struggled to shoot and create his own shot against lengthy defenders, making him more of a love-him or hate-him prospect than a sure thing.

Essengue is a toolsy forward with a fluid handle, dynamic finishing package, and highly versatile defense. But his long-term upside hinges on the jumper clicking. And if it doesn’t, his defense must reach a level that prevents coaches from keeping him off the floor. The Thunder can let him take his time.

Clifford is a tough-as-nails wing who does it all. He defends multiple positions, crashes the boards, and scores from everywhere. As a super senior with only Mountain West pedigree, he lacks experience against high-level competition despite his age. But his skill-set would in theory allow him to fit right away on Orlando’s roster, providing shooting to a team that ranked 25th in 3-point attempts and last in percentage.

Riley has dynamic driving ability and playmaking instincts that scream upside as a jumbo-sized, shot-creating wing. This could make him a great fit as a supporting piece next to Anthony Edwards. But pre-draft workouts will be telling for his true draft stock since his jumper is streaky, and his defense is unreliable because he is so lean physically and lacks fundamentals.

After bypassing guards in the lottery, taking a shot at one at this part of the draft could make more reasonable sense. Especially since Traore offers a different style to Carrington. Traore oozes upside with his size, blazing speed, and shiftiness off the bounce. But he’s an inefficient scorer all over the floor who needs to improve his erratic decision-making to become a reliable player.

Newell has springs in his legs, regularly slamming lobs and swatting shots. Even though his discipline reflects his youth, his energetic style suggests he’ll someday become a highly versatile defender. And in a frontcourt next to Flagg, he’d have someone to grow alongside to form a dominant defensive duo.

Bryant is a rangy, athletic forward who projects as a highly versatile defender. He’s raw on offense though, so Miami would be taking a longer view with a pick like this one. Beyond his cutting, he needs to improve as a shooter to earn minutes in high-leverage games.

Beringer began playing basketball only three years ago, which makes him a raw project, but also makes his natural talents all the more impressive. He’s a center but he has the quickness of a guard, giving him immense defensive versatility to build on for years to come. The Jazz don’t really have a young piece like him in the frontcourt, so he’d be worth the gamble for such a young team.

Lendeborg fills the stat sheet in every category, showing off athletic shot creation, dominant rebounding, and versatile defense. There really isn’t anything he can’t do, it’s just a matter of whether what he did in a weaker conference can translate to the pros. And for Atlanta, the risk seems worth the upside swing.

The Pacers are in the East semis with a tough series coming against the Cavaliers, but looking ahead: Myles Turner will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. So will their other bigs on the roster, so even if Turner returns then finding a backup could make logical sense. Kalkbrenner is a throwback 7-footer who owns the paint, swatting shots with his giant wingspan and dunking everything in sight. It’s a bit strange he isn’t a better rebounder. But as a super senior, he’s also developed some sneaky passing and shooting skills that hint at higher upside.

OKC has a plethora of guards already on the roster, but Philon presents so much long-term upside at this point of the draft as a shifty point guard with a buttery floater, advanced pick-and-roll playmaking, and a deceptive handle that lets him control the tempo. His feathery touch teases untapped shooting potential, but he’s got to prove it to become an offensive maestro.

After selecting Clifford earlier in the first round, here’s another shooter for the Magic. The best shooter in all of March Madness. Clayton hit some of the clutchest shots all tournament long, leading Florida to the NCAA championship game before playing with great effort on defense and making some slick passes to help lead them to the title. Throughout his collegiate career, he showed major limitations as a defender and as a decision-maker. But he’s a fearless shooter with the versatility to take any shot at any moment. And that’s precisely what the Magic need.

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The Nets basically don’t have a roster for next season with so many players hitting free agency, and they don’t have any guards under contract so after drafting two frontcourt players now’s the time to find a ball-handling guard. Pettiford is a combo guard with a sniper’s touch, raining 3s and lethal floaters while flashing playmaking savvy and a bulldog mentality on both ends. But his smaller size means he’ll need to clean up his shot selection and decision-making to max out his game at the next level. Playing with Flagg would help him find that balance.

Gonzalez is a high-motor wing with great defensive tools and a slashing style on offense. If his jumper and handle develop, he could be a versatile two-way starter. The Nets can afford to be patient with a player who barely even played off the bench overseas, instead valuing the upside he showed playing for his youth teams.

Following the sale of the franchise, outgoing Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck has been open about how second-apron penalties, not rising luxury tax penalties, are what will force the team to make some changes. Even without them though, the Celtics need to sure up the frontcourt. Al Horford is old. Kristaps Porzingis is injury prone. Fortunately there are a ton of options in the late first round that fit the bill, such as Wolf, a 7-footer who ran point for Michigan, playing a slick style with risky passes and step-back jumpers that made him a highlight factory. But he’s also a turnover machine and his shooting numbers are shaky, making him more of a raw bet who needs time to prove he can match his flash with substance.

The Suns need some bigs and Raynaud has leveled up every year at Stanford, turning into a player who pops 3s, slashes to the rim with a smooth handle, and makes eye-popping passes. As a talented passer who also offers solid defense, there’s little reason to think the Frenchman won’t carve out an NBA role.

Fleming is a hustler who drains spot-up jumpers and brings energy on defense, swatting shots and snagging boards. But he has some real warts as a ball-handler with a lack of experience against high-level competition, so teams will have to feel real confident his role player skill-set will translate. With Kawhi Leonard and James Harden handling the rock in Los Angeles, Fleming’s positive qualities could allow him to slot in right away as a possible upgrade off the bench over Ben Simmons.

View the full second round and scouting reports for every single prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft Guide, which you can find here.

This news was originally published on this post .

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