Journalism (4-1) aims to end Kentucky Derby favorites’ hex

The betting favorite has not won the Kentucky Derby since 2018, adding to the drama when Journalism enters the starting gate at Churchill Downs in Louisville on Saturday evening.

The 3-year-old colt, trained by Michael McCarthy, was a 4-1 favorite on Wednesday after opening at 3-1 on Saturday following the post-position draw for the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Most expect Journalism, with jockey Umberto Rispoli aboard, to remain the top choice as he breaks from the eighth gate in an anticipated 20-horse field.

Sired by Curlin, a two-time horse of the year, Journalism has won his last four races, most recently the Santa Anita Derby on April 5. The last Santa Anita winner to then take the Kentucky Derby was Justify in 2018. Justify was also the last betting favorite to win the 1 1/4-mile race.

Trainer Bob Baffert, whose six wins are tied with Ben Jones for the most in Kentucky Derby history, returns to the race with a pair of horses after a three-year suspension.

Citizen Bull, who finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, will break from the inside gate, and Rodriguez, who won the Wood Memorial on April 5, will run from the fourth gate. Neither spot is ideal for horses who are seeking to control the race from the start.

Rodriguez, sired by Authentic and ridden by two-time winner Mike Smith, is currently the third choice at 9-1. Citizen Bull is listed at 17-1.

Baffert appeared to have his seventh Kentucky Derby win in 2021 when Medina Spirit crossed the finish line first. However, the colt’s win was eventually taken down after a failed drug test. That also led to Churchill Downs’ ban on the Hall of Fame trainer.

Justify will also have a progeny in the race. American Promise, who last raced and won in the Virginia Derby six weeks ago, will run for legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas, and Nik Juarez will get his first Kentucky Derby mount. Initially 30-1 on the morning line, early betting brought American Promise’s odds down to 12-1.

American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner also trained by Baffert, sired two entries. Luxor Cafe comes from Japan. Trained by Noriyuki Hori and ridden by Joao Moreira, the colt is currently at 15-1 and will break seventh.

In addition, Publisher is looking to give Steve Asmussen, who has won more races at Churchill than any other trainer, his first Derby winner. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, Publisher will come from the 13th gate and is priced at 32-1.

Journalism’s most likely rivals will have to come from the far outside. Sandman, sired by Tapit and trained by Mark Casse, was 5-1 as of Wednesday. The Arkansas Derby winner, though, will break from the 17th post with Jose Ortiz aboard. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from that gate.

Just to Sandman’s outside will be Sovereignty, ridden by Junior Alvarado. Trainer Bill Mott’s entry won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and finished second in the Florida Derby on March 29. While he was given morning line odds of 5-1, those lengthened to 10-1 as of Wednesday.

The National Weather Service indicates a 40 percent chance of rain on Derby Day. The last time the Derby was run on an off track was 2019, when Country House, a 65-1 long shot trained by Mott, won after Maximum Security was disqualified for interfering with another horse in the final turn.

–Field Level Media