The betting favorites in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field have won major prep races, but that doesn’t guarantee they will win the Run for the Roses. Journalism (3-1) has won four races in five career starts, including victory at the Santa Anita Derby. Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Sovereignty (5-1) has won two of his last three races, while Sandman (6-1) enters the Kentucky Derby 2025 on the heels of a win at the Arkansas Derby. While these wins are impressive, the last four Kentucky Derby races have been won by Kentucky Derby horses with odds longer than 10-1. Post time for the Kentucky Derby 2025 is 6:57 p.m. ET. Rodriguez and Grande were scratched from the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup, bringing Baeza in at 12-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds. With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.
In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.
She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Sandman is trained by Mark Casse, who is winless in 10 Kentucky Derby starts. The 64-year-old trainer has never had a horse finish in the top three, which has Yu weary of playing Sandman in her 2025 Kentucky Derby picks.
Sandman has run only one Grade 1 stakes race over his career. The colt is fathered by Tapit, one of the winningest sires in history, but he has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. Sandman wasn’t the favorite entering the nine-horse field in his Arkansas Derby victory, so at the third-shortest odds in a 20-horse 2025 Kentucky Derby field, Yu isn’t backing Sandman on Saturday. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another curveball: Yu is high on Luxor Cade , even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. A son of 2015 Triple Crown hero American Pharoah, Luxor Cafe has four straight wins entering Churchill Downs.
“He should get the Derby distance, and his stalking running style works well in this race,” Yu told SportsLine. “He is likely to end up farther back early than he is used to, but I don’t see that as a major issue. The connections have stated that he had plenty left in the tank when a 5-length winner of his prep race, and we know the Japanese can get a horse ready to run on any continent.” See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks
Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horse previews
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty | 21 Baeza
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