The Golden State Warriors are one victory away from advancing out of the first round of the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The Warriors (-5.5, 205.5) host the Houston Rockets at 9 p.m. ET on Friday with a 3-2 series lead. The Warriors won back-to-back games at home before dropping Game 5 in Houston as they look to remain undefeated at home this postseason to advance to play the Minnesota Timberwolves. Jimmy Butler scored 27 points in Game 4 in Golden State after missing Game 3, and the Warriors should be rested entering Game 5 after only Moses Moody played more than 25 minutes in Game 5. How should the rest affect how you view Golden State options in Friday NBA player props and same-game parlays on betting apps? Stephen Curry, who was one assist shy of a double-double in two of five games this series, has +750 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook of a double-double in Friday NBA prop bets.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Stephen Curry Over 5.5 points in the first quarter (-106)
Oh expects a fast start by the rested Warriors in a win-and-advance scenario at home and any time the Warriors’ offense is succeeding, there’s a high likelihood it’s due to Curry’s scoring. The model projects Curry at 24.9 points on Friday and given he’ll play either all or nearly all 12 minutes of the first quarter, Oh like the chances of Curry having a fast start. The Future Hall of Fame guard averaged 26.5 points per game over his first two home contests.
“His full game line and our full game projection is basically 25 points,” Oh said. “I like the Warriors first quarter spread and first quarter team total because I think Steph is going to step up in this spot… or at least score 25% of his projected points.” FanDuel Sportsbook is offering this play at -106 odds.
Jimmy Butler Under 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-114)
The model projects Butler at 29.3 PRA on Friday as although he’s playing, Butler is likely less than 100% after exiting Game 2 due to a pelvic contusion following a hard fall. After having 27 points in Game 4 in his first game back after missing Game 3, Butler shot just 2 of 10 from the field and finished with eight points, five rebounds and two assists over 25 minutes in Game 5 to fall significantly below this total.
Butler has gone Under his points + assists + rebounds total in 11 of his last 18 games against a top-10 ranked defense, averaging 24.2 PRA over those contests. The Rockets had the No. 6 scoring defense (109.4 ppg) this season. Butler’s gone Under this total in four of six games against Houston with the regular season and postseason combined and the model expects that trend to continue on Friday. There’s also a risk of injury re-aggravation as well in a game the Warriors don’t necessarily need to win to advance.
Jalen Green Over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Green had 11 points, eight rebounds and two assists to finish just Under this total in Game 5, but he only played 28 minutes as the Rockets led by 27 points at halftime (76-49) and rested many of their starters in the second half. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft averaged 21 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game this season and he exploded with 38 points in Game 2 of this series. It’s been an up-and-down series for Green, but with Houston’s season on the line, the model projects a 26.1 PRA total for Green on Friday.
Green has gone Over his total PRA in 14 of his last 25 road games, averaging a 28.0 PRA over that span. He went Over this number in Houston’s final regular-season game at Golden State with 21 points, three rebounds and five assists on April 6.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Friday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Friday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 113-84-1 (+2050) over his last 198 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in for Friday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Jason La Canfora, who is 83-64 (+1177.5) over his last 147 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who La Canfora is including in his NBA picks for Friday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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