By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman
There’s a major difference between contenders and pretenders, a difference that was evident in both Vegas’ and Edmonton’s first-round series.
Backs against the wall, the Golden Knights and Oilers showed exactly why they’ve been frequent fliers past the first round — and why the Minnesota Wild and Los Angeles Kings were first-round fodder once again.
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Now comes the true test: a battle between two teams equally equipped to win it all. This series is about as tight as it gets.
The odds
The Oilers start with a modest 52-48 edge in this series, but there are a lot of variables that could tilt the scales in either direction.
The main one is the status of Pavel Dorofeyev, who is currently day-to-day. We’re projecting a Game 4 return, which is one reason the Oilers are favored. With Dorofeyev in the lineup, the Golden Knights’ odds would improve to 49 percent. If Dorofeyev misses the whole series, however, they drop to 46 percent.
There’s also the matter of Edmonton’s goaltending situation. As admirable as Calvin Pickard’s performance was against the Kings, he’s still far from a safe bet as a career backup. Stuart Skinner is no goaltending savant, but his game has higher highs — enough to be considered a stronger option. We’re projecting an even split, but more starts for Skinner would increase Edmonton’s odds further.
The numbers
The Oilers are an offensive powerhouse. The Golden Knights, with a plus-23 Defensive Rating, have the edge in their own zone. What will win out?
The teams weren’t all that different at five-on-five this year. They both hovered around the 54 percent mark in expected goals to round out the top five in the league. Their expected goal creation and suppression weren’t far off each other, either — Vegas just had better results on both ends of the ice.
Scoring goals wasn’t a problem for Edmonton in Round 1. The Oilers poured chances on the Kings with a league-high rate of 3.44 xGF/60 (and scored 2.83 per 60, which ranks third). Vegas generated some good looks against Minnesota, but the Wild limited them to 1.86 GF/60. Against Edmonton’s goalies, there may be an opportunity to do more damage at five-on-five.
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The Wild also limited Vegas’ power play, which was one of the highest-scoring power plays in the regular season. The Oilers, on the other hand, were red hot on the advantage in the playoffs. Both teams have weapons on the power play, so this may come down to whose penalty kill can return to form after a leaky first round. The Oilers’ and Golden Knights’ expected goals against each jumped by more than three goals per 60 in Round 1 compared to the regular season. The difference was Vegas’ goaltending controlled chaos with only three goals against in six games. The Oilers gave up eight to the Kings.
The big question
Can Vegas’ defense slow down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
It stands to reason that having Minnesota as their first-round opponent was, in some ways, an ideal bit of practice for the Golden Knights. After all, the Wild have sublime offensive talents at the top of the forward group and then, basically, just a bunch of guys.
After six games, Vegas should hope its top pair learned a lesson. With Alex Pietrangelo and Noah Hanifin on the ice together at five-on-five, nearly 75 minutes’ worth of time, Vegas was outscored 5-2 and controlled just 43 percent of the expected goals. That’s probably not going to work against McDavid and Draisaitl.
It’s also a bit of deviation from Pietrangelo/Hanifin’s regular-season numbers; in more than 770 minutes together, they solidly controlled the run of play with an expected goal share of about 55 percent. Vegas was outscored 38-32 with them on the ice, but that had plenty to do with goaltending. If the Games 3-5 version of Adin Hill shows up for the Golden Knights, problem solved. If they get the early-series version, though, look out.
What should be a bit more concerning for Vegas is that it wasn’t always Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy doing the damage against Pietrangelo/Hanifin. A lot of it came with Ryan Hartman on the ice — Minnesota held a 3-1 goal edge and 60/40 expected goal share with him on the ice against Pietrangelo, for one.
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The Shea Theodore-Brayden McNabb pair also got plenty of minutes against the top line and did an OK job territorially — playing to about an even split in expected goals — but was outscored 4-2 with Kaprizov on the ice. That’s a good fallback option, even if it’s only forced upon the Golden Knights when they’re on the road, and Theodore individually was outstanding against Minnesota.
It’ll also be interesting to see if Bruce Cassidy sticks with the pairings he rolled out for Game 6 against Minnesota. Vegas won, of course, but was chasing the puck for most of the night. Pietrangelo’s most frequent partner was Zach Whitecloud; in about 10 minutes together, Minnesota outshot Vegas 8-2 and scored a goal. Theodore-McNabb was the only pairing to win its minutes overall, but still lost in scoring attempts (8-5) and shot attempts (21-12).
It’s ultimately a two-pronged issue for the Golden Knights. Stopping McDavid and Draisaitl is one thing; we know teams can survive simply by not letting those two run wild, taking their lumps and truly handling business with the rest of the forwards group. Edmonton, though, showed real signs of scoring depth in the first round against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Vegas was good enough against the Wild, particularly in the middle of the series, but it’s fair to wonder whether it’s equipped to handle a team with two of the world’s best at the top of the lineup and a handful of competent players dotting the rest of it.
The X-factor
Are we witnessing a John Klingberg renaissance?
Quick: Other than McDavid and Draisaitl, who do you think had the highest average Game Score for Edmonton in the first round? If you guessed someone — anyone — other than John Klingberg, it’d be understandable. It’d also be incorrect. Klingberg, whether it was a flash in the pan or a legitimate sign he’d turned back the clock, finished the series against Los Angeles with three really strong outings.
Edmonton outscored the Kings 4-1 with Klingberg on the ice and controlled more than 63 percent of the expected goals. When Klingberg was paired with Jake Walman, Edmonton’s results were even better. The two of them (or even just Klingberg) managing something similar against the Golden Knights would be a major development.
That Klingberg is contributing at all to a playoff team in 2025 is a development in itself; he missed more than a year after double hip surgery and spent years in decline before that. In his early years with the Stars, though, he was a force as a skater and playmaker along the blue line. Eventually, injuries and chaotic defensive play seemingly took their toll, and Edmonton’s signing of him in January seemed like a Hail Mary. Sometimes, though, Hail Marys get caught.
The rosters
We all know exactly why the Oilers win games. A lot of games. McDavid and Draisaitl go nuclear.
The two best players in the world are an unstoppable force capable of dragging an otherwise middling (if that) roster to some very high places. Edmonton’s top duo has a combined projected Net Rating of plus-51. The rest of the team is at minus-8. If you ever wondered how good a team would be with the two best players in the world and an otherwise average lineup, you’re witnessing it in real time.
Against the Kings in particular, their combined plus-5.9 Net Rating in six games translates to plus-81 per 82 games. You know, the usual.
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As gruesome as the rest of the roster looks on paper, though, they actually delivered when it mattered in the opening round. That’s sparked some real optimism in Edmonton.
Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins finally looked closer to their usual selves with five points apiece and Hyman earning 66 percent of the expected goals. Evander Kane provided a vital offensive spark after a year on the shelf. Connor Brown, Trent Frederic, Corey Perry and Vasily Podkolzin all found the scoresheet at least three times, with Brown earning a surprising five points. Mattias Janmark scored as many goals in six games as he did in 80 games this season. And Adam Henrique was a stabilizing defensive presence in the bottom six.
For a team whose top concern was forward depth going into the playoffs, the Oilers couldn’t have scripted a better opening round for the entire group. While the expectation should still be that the depth is probably a weakness, their ability to rise to the occasion and elevate their games when it matters most is extremely notable. It makes the Oilers much more difficult to game plan against, as they’re starting to prove they are capable beyond McDavid and Draisaitl.
It was especially true in the final two games; those very depth players combined for eight goals while McDavid and Draisaitl sat back and relaxed with a single assist between them. That duo may have brought the Oilers back from the brink, but the team’s depth put them over the top.
The same is true on defense, where the depth stepped up in Mattias Ekholm’s absence; Walman, Klingberg and Brett Kulak all played incredible hockey against the Kings.
The new concern: Can Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse handle the heat at the top of the lineup? At five-on-five, that pair has been on the ice for seven goals in 58 minutes with a middling xG percentage. The Oilers allowed only seven goals in 254 minutes otherwise (1.65 GA/60). Bouchard at least added enough individual offense to make up for it, but defensively, the team’s top pair has not been good enough. Even if some of it is just bad luck, allowing 3.24 xGA/60 is a recipe for disaster given each player’s penchant for adventurous chaos.
They can both be much better, but their performance so far shows just how valuable Ekholm is — as a stabilizing presence next to Bouchard and as someone who allows Nurse to thrive in secondary matchups.
On the other side, Vegas’ top four is as solid as it gets with four legit top-pair options. Where Vegas’ blue line differs from Los Angeles’ is in the amount of offense coming from the back end. Between Theodore, Hanifin and Alex Pietrangelo, the Golden Knights have the horses to go toe-to-toe with Edmonton’s dynamic blue line. They can keep up with the run-and-gun hockey in a way the Kings couldn’t and are also stable enough defensively to hold the fort.
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The same is true of Vegas’ forward group. While it will lack Dorofeyev to start, it’s noticeable how defensively sound everyone is from top to bottom. This is a responsible forward core, and that starts up top. The team’s best players — Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and William Karlsson — are complete players.
The difference between Vegas’ best and Los Angeles’ best up front, though, is that their offensive game is more reliable. Eichel is obviously a massive part of that, a true franchise player capable of putting up 90 points. It’s not just about slowing down Edmonton’s best, it’s also about keeping up in the process. Eichel is better equipped for that than any Kings player.
With that in mind, it is worth keeping an eye on line combos. Eichel and Stone struggled early in the series at five-on-five, but were dynamite once Karlsson moved up to the top line. Can Vegas afford to stack the deck like that against the Oilers? That probably depends on how the Oilers line up and whether they choose to split up McDavid and Draisaitl.
Regardless, the Golden Knights do have real depth down the lineup. Tomas Hertl is still an effective top-line player anchoring the second line while Ivan Barbashev, Reilly Smith, Brandon Saad and Nicolas Roy provide an edge in the middle six. It’s those players that need to be the difference in this series for Vegas. They need to be able to make up for whatever damage McDavid and Draisaitl do. The top guys can only do so much in that battle.
Beyond that, the biggest question mark for Vegas right now might be between the pipes. The Oilers made a Vezina finalist look mortal, and Adin Hill hasn’t exactly been sharp in these playoffs. His .880 save percentage and minus-1.3 GSAx ranked third last in the playoffs among starters. Vegas has the goaltending edge no matter who starts for the Oilers, but in order to win, the Golden Knights will need Hill’s best self. His Round 1 performance won’t cut it.
The key matchup
Jack Eichel vs. Connor McDavid
The last time the Oilers and Golden Knights faced off in the playoffs, in 2023, Eichel and McDavid didn’t see much of each other at five-on-five. Neither team opted for a power-versus-power matchup, and Eichel wasn’t in a shutdown role yet.
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Ten years after getting drafted No. 1 and 2 in the 2015 draft, the two will meet again in the playoffs. This time, though, they will likely go head to head.
Eichel’s all-around game has taken strides over the last couple of years, and now he takes on matchup minutes for the Golden Knights. In Round 1, that meant Kaprizov, and in Round 2, it will be McDavid. If it’s McDavid and Draisaitl, it might be Eichel and Karlsson again.
McDavid always sees his opponents’ best shutdown talents, but few have the offensive game that Eichel brings. These are elite skaters in transition who can play end-to-end against each other. It should make for a star-powered battle between two of the West’s best centers.
The bottom line
Ultimately, this series is a Rorschach test. If you value megawatt star power, you’re in Edmonton’s corner. If you’re more about depth and “heavy hockey,” you’re with Vegas.
Stylistic differences can make for great entertainment, and everything about this series suggests it’ll deliver in a big way.
References
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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