Fantasy Baseball Week 8 Waiver-Wire Targets: Now’s the time to add Jake Burger

Getting sent down to the minors in the first month of the season is just about a worst-case scenario for a player drafted in the first 10 rounds of a Fantasy Baseball league, so it’s hard to imagine a worse start to the season than the one Jake Burger had. 

Burger, the Rangers‘ big offseason addition to their lineup, hit just .190/.231/.330 in his first 30 games before earning a trip back to Triple-A last week. Fantasy players rightly reacted by dropping Burger en masse, with his roster rate dipping below 50% as of Sunday. And that might actually end up being a mistake, believe it or not. 

According to The Dallas Morning News, Burger could be back in the Rangers lineup as soon as Monday, with manager Bruce Bochy telling reporters, “I think we are hoping he’s going to be ready to go then. He’s getting better swings off. He’s looking good there. We’re comfortable with where he is at.” And I’m not sure our expectations for Burger should really be that much lower than they were back in March, when he was a near top-100 pick in most leagues and was drafted absolutely everywhere.

Now, to be fair, I did think Burger’s draft cost was way too high at the time. He’s always been a streaky hitter who does almost nothing to help his team if he isn’t consistently hitting for power. That wasn’t a problem in Miami, who had no better options (or playoff aspirations), but the trade to Texas obviously created a much smaller margin for error for Burger. I didn’t expect him to get sent down before the end of April, but it was always within the range of possible outcomes.

But that range of possible outcomes hasn’t really changed with this slow start. For as bad as Burger was, his .245 wOBA through the first 30 games wasn’t even really an outlier for him – he had a .265 wOBA on June 30 of last season. That wasn’t enough to cost him his job, and the Marlins‘ patience was rewarded, as he hit .278/.336/.553 with 22 homers over the next three months. 

That’s the thing about streaky hitters. If you just judge them by their best or worst stretches, you’re going to get a skewed perception of who they are. I think some Fantasy players made that mistake with Burger in drafts, but going in the opposite direction and deciding he’s finished because he had a fairly typical slump to open the season would be just as big a mistake. We know Burger is a must-start hitter when he’s locked in, and the Rangers are going to give him another opportunity to lock in. Let’s take advantage of that now that all he costs is some FAB or a waiver claim. 

Here’s who else we’re looking to add on waivers ahead of Week 8: 

Week 8 Waiver Targets

Catchers

Ivan Herrera, Cardinals (69%) – He should be 100% rostered. Herrera returned from his knee injury with hits in each of his first two games back, and still has a career .362 expected wOBA in the majors – higher than either Adley Rutschman or William Contreras. I’m not saying he’s better than those guys, but there shouldn’t be a single league where Herrera is available on waivers now that he’s healthy. 

Deep-league target: Edgar Quero, White Sox (17%) – Quero’s roster rate remains too low. I know he doesn’t have much speed, nor has he shown much over-the fence power.  But he has started 16 of 23 games since being promoted, including three at DH, and he is hitting .274 with solid underlying skills to back it up. If nothing else, he’s a catcher who doesn’t hurt you in batting average, which makes him a rock-solid No. 2 option. 

First Base

Colt Keith, Tigers (36%) – Keith got off to a really rough start, but has been showing decent signs all along – even when he hit just .186/.324/.254 in April, for instance, he still had a 17% walk rate and manageable 21% strikeout rate. And in May, he started to make that good process stuff pay off, with three homers and a .300/.3654/.600 line. Keith’s .275 expected batting average and .483 expected slugging percentage for the season suggest that the May production may not be a fluke. 

Deep-league target: Tim Elko, White Sox (7%) – Elko is a 26-year-old who is only just now conquering Triple-A, so skepticism is warranted. But he did hit .348/.431/.670 with 10 homers in 31 games at Triple-A before his promotion this weekend, and then hit his first career homer off Sandy Alcantara Sunday, a good start for a rare glimmer of hope on Chicago’s south side.

Second base

Hye Seong Kim, Dodgers (28%) –  Kim is going to have to hit to stick around, and I have my doubts about that. But injuries are making it so he’s definitely going to have an opportunity for at least the next few weeks, so let’s see if he can take advantage. He’s got speed to spare and should make plenty of contact, it’s just a question of if he can do enough damage to make it matter. In deeper category leagues, I’m intrigued.

Deep-league target: Brett Baty, Mets (12%) – I’m inclined to think Baty is more or less a Quad-A guy at this point, but to his credit, he is taking advantage of his latest opportunity, homering three times across Friday and Saturday’s games this weekend – before finding himself on the bench Sunday. He’s got long odds to play his way into an everyday role again after struggling so badly when handed a starting job out of Spring Training, but the erstwhile top prospect still has plenty of power if he can just tap into it more consistently. In deeper leagues, I’m interested in finding out if it doesn’t cost me much.

Third base

Yoan Moncada, Angels (28%) – Moncada hasn’t hit more than 15 homers in a season since 2019. He hasn’t had even 100 hits in a season since 2021. I’m saying it’s extremely unlikely that he’s going to actually matter for Fantasy. But he did homer in his first two games back from the IL, and he’s going to play more or less everyday for the Angels, so maybe there’s a dead-cat bounce in here. 

Deep-league target: Miguel Vargas, White Sox (14%) – At this point, I think it’s fair to write Vargas off as a Quad-A guy, given how little he has done to take advantage of his opportunities in the majors. But he’s still playing pretty much everyday for the White Sox and is hitting .321/.415/.482 over his past 16 games, which is more sustained success than we’ve ever seen from him in the majors at this point. In deeper leagues, let’s see where this goes.

Shortstop

J.P Crawford, Mariners (37%) – It looks like Crawford might be back to his 2023 level. He hit .266 with a career-high 19 homers and 94 runs scored, and right now, it looks like he’s not far from that skill set. The power production hasn’t been there yet, but his underlying skills actually look even stronger – his .387 expected wOBA on contact is not just the best of his career, it’s the first time he’s ever even been better than league average in that regard. Crawford looks like a solid starting option in points and OBP leagues, and even in Roto, his run-scoring should make him worth rostering, too. 

Deep-league targets: Daniel Schneemann, Guardians (23%) – There’s little in Schneemann’s track record to suggest he’s likely to remain an above-average hitter, but it’s getting pretty hard to ignore him at this point. He is 9 for 23 with three homers in the month of May, and his underlying numbers have been awesome for a while – his expected wOBA over the past 100 plate appearances is up to .374, while he has one of the highest barrel rates and expected slugging percentages in the league. There’s been a real increase in Schneemann’s bat speed, so maybe there’s something real here.

Outfield

Trent Grisham, Yankees (58%) – Grisham’s pretty long track record suggests that this is probably just a hot streak, but it’s been going on long enough that it’s hard to ignore. He is hitting .276/.366/.612 for the season, and is even holding his own against lefties while carving out a bigger role. His .398 xwOBA largely backs his actual .419 mark up, and at some point, it just doesn’t make sense to remain skeptical about it. In most leagues, I think it’s fine to just play the hot hand with Grisham, given how long he’s been hot for. 

Dane Myers, Marlins (21%) – In 196 plate appearances since the start of last season, Myers is now hitting .298/.352/.461 with six homers and 11 steals. The batting average feels especially unsustainable – it comes with a .402 BABIP, after all – but it’s worth noting that his expected batting average this season is .343, suggesting it isn’t entirely a fluke. He’s improved his plate discipline while running really strong quality of contact metrics, and I’m actually not sure it makes sense for the Marlins to not play him everyday at this point – and, for what it’s worth, he has started nine of the past 11 games. There might be something here. 

Evan Carter, Rangers (38%) – Carter didn’t really give us much reason to think he had solved whatever issues he was having down in Triple-A, hitting just .221/.333/.412 with a 26% strikeout rate before getting called up earlier this week. But to his credit, he also hasn’t looked at all overmatched in the majors so far, going 6 for 22 with a homer and a steal in his first six games (five starts) of the season. The most impressive thing about his start might be that he has struck out just three times, something that was a real issue for him in his first two MLB stints. We’ll see if he can keep this up, but I’ll bet on the 22-year-old former top prospect when all it costs is a few bucks in FAB. 

Rece Hinds, Reds (3%) – Rece Hinds knows how to make an entrance. Last year’s flash-in-the-pan star for the Reds homered in his second game back with the team this week, after hitting eight in 33 games in Triple-A. He hasn’t been an everyday player since his promotion, and he has struck out six times in 11 games, which was ultimately the issue after his hot start last season, too. Still, Hinds has legitimately plus power and the Reds need a spark, so while I think the odds are against him, let’s see if he can hang around this time. 

Starting pitcher

Ryan Weathers, Marlins (34%) – Weathers probably would’ve ended up getting drafted in nearly every league if he hadn’t gotten hurt this spring. He was riding a velocity jump to strong production before the injury, and has sustained that velocity (and performance) in his rehab assignment. He was already decent in the majors last season, and there might be more strikeout upside here now that he’s averaging 97.6 mph on his four-seamer. Added velocity is no guarantee of improved performance, of course – and the added injury risk looms large – but I think it’s worth taking the chance on Weathers, even if I’d prefer to avoid him in his first start against the Cubs Wednesday. 

Bubba Chandler, Pirates (76%) – There’s been nothing official, but it sure sounds like Chandler is going to make his MLB debut soon. He’s been the top prospect to stash for a while now, and if we assume the Pirates are following something like a similar timetable as they did with Paul Skenes a year ago, Chandler should be getting the call up in a start or two. That is speculation, of course, but with 41 strikeouts to 11 walks and a 2.25 ERA in 28 innings so far this season, it sure doesn’t seem like there’s much to be gained from keeping Chandler down for much longer. 

AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves (62%) – Smith-Shawver keeps running solid starts together, having given up two or fewer runs in all but one start this season, including three straight since returning to the rotation in late April. And, because he is still just 22, it might be a sign that Smith-Shawver is starting to figure it out. I’m pretty skeptical – Saturday’s was his first start with more strikeouts than innings pitched since his promotion, and his 5.12 expected ERA really doesn’t back his 2.75 actual mark up. Still, his splitter and curveball have just been awesome pitches for him, and his above-average extension and velocity make me think his fastball might not be as bad as the underlying numbers suggest. Which is to say, I think it’s worth continuing to buy just in case. 

Will Warren, Yankees (25%) – Warren has flashed some upside, never more so than with his seven-strikeouts-in-7.1-innings outing Friday against the Athletics. He had the whole arsenal working in that start, generating at least two whiffs with every pitch in his arsenal except for the sinker. It’d be nice to see him string together multiple good starts in a row, but I’m willing to buy in for deeper leagues based on that Friday outing, just in case he’s starting to figure it out. 

Cade Horton, Cubs (46%) – Horton came as advertised in his MLB debut, which came Friday against the Mets after he entered following an opener. His fastball looked decent – good velocity at 95.3 mph, but with an average movement profile that helped generate just two whiffs on 11 swings. But the sweeper was excellent for the most part, generating five whiffs on 14 swings, and he added a couple more with a curveball and changeup that were mostly just show-me pitches in the debut. He’ll need to expand the arsenal more consistently to make it through MLB lineups multiple times, and he’ll need to avoid mistakes like the one that led to Brett Baty’s three-run homer that accounted for all the runs Horton gave up. This isn’t a can’t-miss prospect by any means – I think Ben Brown is actually a pretty good comp for Horton right now – but he’s talented enough to be worth adding coming off his debut. 

Hunter Dobbins, Red Sox (8%) – Dobbins was a pretty fringe-y prospect coming into the season, but he’s showing flashes of promise, most notably in his start against the Royals Friday that saw him strike out six over six shutout innings. He has at least as many strikeouts as innings pitched in three of his four MLB starts and has shown really strong control and quality of contact suppression, along with multiple swing-and-miss pitches – his slider, sweeper, and curveball all have at least a 40% whiff rate in a small sample so far, while his splitter has generated plenty of weak grounders. We’d like to see more strikeouts overall, but right now, Dobbins looks much more interesting than his low roster rate would suggest. 

Chase Petty, Reds (9%) – Petty’s second start wasn’t quite as much of a disaster as his first, but it was pretty bad, and he has now given up 13 runs in 5.1 innings with eight walks and seven strikeouts through his first two MLB starts. You don’t need me to say it, but that’s bad, and it might be enough to cost Petty his spot in the rotation even with Hunter Greene sidelined by a groin injury. In most Fantasy leagues, you can safely continue to ignore Petty, but I still think there’s some upside here, despite the terrible performance so far. If he’s available in an NL-only league, I’m still looking to add him. Stubbornly. 

Relief pitcher

Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks (27%) – The biggest problem with adding Miller is just that his time in the closer role almost certainly has an expiration date of “whenever Justin Martinez gets back from his shoulder injury.” And since Martinez is already throwing bullpen sessions this weekend, it looks like his absence may only be measured in days moving forward. For however long Martinez is out, Miller looks like the closer for a good team, but that might only be for another week or so. Adjust your bids accordingly. 

Porter Hodge, Cubs (32%) – I’d feel a lot better about the chances of Hodge emerging as the Cubs’ clear closer if he hadn’t entered in the eighth inning of a tied game and given up three runs on three hits Sunday. I think he’s the best reliever at the back of the Cubs bullpen, but he actually has to pitch like that in order to gain their trust. I think he can, but it’s less of a sure thing than you’d like it to be, and makes him a lower priority add than someone like Miller.