Steve Kerr lays out blueprint for Warriors comeback: ‘I think we’re going to win the series with defense’

The Golden State Warriors are playing with their backs against the wall right now. They trail the Minnesota Timberwolves 2-1 in their second-round series, a deficit that would be fairly surmountable under normal circumstances, but becomes much more daunting with Stephen Curry still sidelined with a hamstring strain. The Warriors said Curry would be re-evaluated one week from Wednesday. That means he’s almost certainly out for Monday’s Game 4 and probably Wednesday’s Game 5 as well. The cavalry may not come in time. If Golden State wants to advance, it probably means winning at least one more game, if not two, without him.

What has become clear in the nearly three games they’ve played without him is that this team cannot score without Curry. In the 131 minutes they’ve played with Curry on the sideline, they have posted an offensive rating of exactly 100. They have not reached triple-digit points yet in a single game, and when Jimmy Butler has had to leave the floor for rest, their offensive rating falls to an impossibly low 79.3. Steve Kerr acknowledged all of this after Game 3. His blueprint for coming back in this series starts on the other end of the floor. 

“I think we’re going to win the series with defense,” Kerr said. “We’re not going to beat them in a skill game. We have to get stops to win the series. Without Steph, obviously we are a totally different team.”

This series thus far has proven Kerr right. The Warriors won Game 1 by holding the Timberwolves to 88 points. They lost Game 2 badly by allowing 117 points. Game 3 was the most competitive of the three: Minnesota scored 102 in a game that was close until the end. The message here, essentially, is that Golden State can win games in the 90s but probably start to fade when the threshold crosses triple digits.

Game 3 was a reasonable outline in that respect. If they’re going to win defensively, they have to be more selective about who sees the floor. Quinten Post, a shooter who doesn’t really defend, was reduced to three minutes. Jonathan Kuminga’s offense is inconsistent, but it comes with a very high ceiling when he’s given the ball. He scored 30 in Game 3, but he’s also far bigger and more athletic than Curry. Handing him most of Curry’s minutes undeniably makes Golden State harder to score on.

A swing player here would be Kuminga’s 2021 draft-mate, Moses Moody. He emerged as a starter for Golden State down the stretch because of his perimeter defense, and he shot at slightly above a league-average level. But his offense became a problem against Houston, as it gave Alperen Sengun a place to hide on defense. His rhythm has been off ever since. He’s 0-for-14 from the field since Game 7 against the Rockets and played only three minutes in Game 3. The Warriors might need to put him back on the floor and hope the shots fall, because Gary Payton II can’t defend Anthony Edwards for entire games.

Winning three more games exclusively on defense probably isn’t feasible. The Warriors aren’t the Rockets. They can’t manufacture points through offensive rebounding and pure athleticism. All they can really do is buy time. Every game they win is another few days Curry can potentially use to recover. If they can string together enough stops and get lucky with Minnesota’s 3-point shooting, they might be able to keep this thing alive long enough for their best player to return. For now, it’s one slugfest at a time.