The 6-seed Minnesota Timberwolves and the 7-seed Golden State Warriors square off in Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Western Conference Semifinals on Monday. The Timberwolves have won two consecutive games, outmatching the Warriors 102-97 in Game 3 on Saturday. Tipoff for Game 4 is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, and Steph Curry (hamstring) remains out for Golden State. The Timberwolves are favored by 5.5 points, and the over/under is 200.5 points in the latest Timberwolves vs. Warriors odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Golden State is 46-44-3, while Minnesota is 44-45-1 against the spread this season.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, here are the model’s top-three picks in the Timberwolves vs. Warriors SGP on Monday:
Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)
The Wolves have taken advantage with Curry sidelined and have won two straight games. Minnesota has covered the spread in seven of its last 11 games and missed it by half a point in Game 3. With no Curry and a chance to go up 3-1, look for the Wolves to come out aggressive and put their foot on the gas.
Julius Randle 20+ points (-140)
Randle is averaging 22.4 points in the 2025 NBA playoffs, which is up from his 18.7 regular-season average. The Kentucky product has gone over 20-plus points in six of his last seven games. He’s also tallied 24 points in two straight games, making 10 shots in each game.
Buddy Hield 3+ 3-Pointers (-200)
The Warriors will need some floor spacers, and Hield is someone they can rely on. The 32-year-old has made 37% of his 3-pointers and elevated his play in the postseason, making 42.9% of those shots from downtown. Hield has also made four-plus 3-pointers in four straight matchups.
Looking for a potential +391 payout? Bet our 3-leg NBA SGP parlay at DraftKings right now, and get $200 in bonus bets instantly on a $5 bet.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Monday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 125-94-1 roll on his last 220 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 21 units.
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