Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Rangers starter against Rockies at plus odds

The St. Louis Cardinals seek their ninth consecutive victory when they visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday for the opener of their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park. St. Louis hasn’t lost since May 2, winning the final two contests of their three-game set against the New York Mets before sweeping three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals. The Cardinals send Matthew Liberatore (3-3, 3.07 ERA) to the mound, while Cristopher Sanchez (4-1, 2.89) gets the start for Philadelphia, which has won 11 of its last 14 games.

Sportsbooks have set Sanchez’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5 (Over +101, Under -132), while Liberatore’s is 4.5 (Over -134, Under +100). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both Sanchez Under 5.5 and Liberatore Over 4.5 as 3-star plays on its five-star scale.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Monday’s 11-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus-money. Here they are:

Tyler Mahle Under 5.5 strikeouts (+113) vs. Rockies (8:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts

Mahle has gone Over this number only twice in eight starts this season and three times in 11 turns since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. In his last outing, the 30-year-old right-hander failed to record a strikeout while working five innings against the Boston Red Sox. Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon is fifth in the National League with 49 strikeouts but has fanned just three times while going 5-for-13 lifetime against Mahle with two home runs and eight RBI.

Ryan Gusto Over 3.5 strikeouts (-160) vs. Royals (8:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts

Gusto has not pitched since May 4, when he came on in relief against the Chicago White Sox and allowed three unearned runs in two-thirds of an inning. The 26-year-old rookie right-hander made four consecutive starts prior to that appearance — his first four in the majors — and registered six strikeouts in three of them despite working more than 4 1/3 innings just once. The Royals have the lowest strikeout total in the American League this season (294) but fanned 30 times in their three-game series against the Boston Red Sox over the weekend.

Yusei Kikuchi Over 4.5 strikeouts (-132) vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts

Kikuchi has registered five or more strikeouts in seven of eight starts in his first season with the Angels. The 33-year-old Japanese left-hander has fanned a total of 39 batters across 42 1/3 innings. The Padres don’t strike out much, doing so a major league-low 265 times this year, but Kikuchi has averaged a strikeout per frame (11 in 11 innings) over his last two outings.