2025 PGA Championship odds, picks: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler predictions by a Masters-winning model

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The 2025 PGA Championship will be held at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte starting Thursday and familiarity with the course should be a major factor throughout the week. Quail Hollow hosted the Kemper Open from 1969 to 1979 and has been the primary host of the Truist Championship (formerly the Wells Fargo Championship) since 2003. Rory McIlroy is a four-time winner at Quail Hollow and three of those victories were by four shots or more. McIlroy, who is +500 in the 2025 PGA Championship odds, ended a 10-year major championship drought and completed a career grand slam at the Masters.

He’ll face a loaded 2025 PGA Championship field that will include Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele and Brooks Koepka. Who are the best values in the 2025 PGA Championship betting odds and how will the leaderboard shake out? Before locking in your 2025 PGA Championship picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 14 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters, its fourth Masters in a row, and last year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting apps like FanDuelDraftKings and Fanatics

Now that the 2025 PGA Championship field is locked in and fans are deciding where to bet the PGA Championship, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and get the latest PGA Championship promo codes.

2025 PGA Championship predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele

One shocker the model is calling at the PGA Championship 2025: Xander Schauffele, the defending champion and a two-time major winner, barely cracks the top 10 of the leaderboard. Schauffele broke through for his first major title at the PGA Championship in 2024, beating DeChambeau by one stroke. He went on to win the Open Championship at Royal Troon last July, but he hasn’t tasted victory since. 

Schauffele dealt with a rib injury early in 2025 that caused him to miss two months of action. The 31-year-old has recorded just one top-10 finish this season, and he’s been widely inconsistent off the tee, which will be a major issue at a course like Quail Hollow. Schauffele enters the 2025 PGA Championship ranked 158th in driving accuracy (54.17%) and 162nd in strokes gained: off the tee (-0.439). He also ranks outside the top 150 in scoring average (71.04), scrambling (55.80%) and one-putt percentage (38.19%). Schauffele is going off at 19-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The model has also locked in its projection for Rory McIlroy, a five-time major winner and the newest Grand Slam champion. McIlroy completed the career Grand Slam at the Masters and for the first time since 2014, he won’t be entering the PGA Championship off the storyline of failing to complete that feat. McIlroy is a five-time major winner, but all of those before the 2025 Masters came before the start of the 2015 PGA Tour season.

McIlroy, the world’s No. 2-ranked golfer, is a two-time PGA Championship winner, taking the 2012 and 2014 titles, and he’s finished in the top eight in three of his last six PGA Championship events. The world has yet to see McIlroy in a major as a Grand Slam champion, but given he went 10 full years without winning a major, you’d have to imagine he’ll enter the PGA Championship with more confidence following that dark cloud being removed.

Meanwhile, the model has examined Scottie Scheffler’s chances of winning his first major outside of Augusta National. The 28-year-old has been sitting at No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking for nearly two years now and he recently captured his 14th career PGA Tour victory with an eight-shot win at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson. It was Scheffler’s first win of the season after offseason hand surgery was required when he severed a tendon with a broken wine glass.

Scheffler has been top-25 in all nine events that he’s played during the 2025 PGA Tour season and he’s recorded six top-10 finishes on the season. He’s also been top 10 in four of the five seasons that he’s competed in the PGA Championship, but he did miss the cut altogether in 2022. Scheffler has made strides as a putter in recent years, but his typically tremendous short game has let him down in 2025. He ranks 92nd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: around-the-green (0.014). See the full PGA Championship projections from the model here.

How to make 2025 PGA Championship picks

The model is also targeting four golfers with odds longer than 20-1 who will make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

Who will win the 2025 PGA Championship, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the latest 2025 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 14 golf majors, including the last four Masters and three majors in 2024.

2025 PGA Championship odds, favorites 

Get full 2025 PGA Championship picks, best bets and predictions here

Scottie Scheffler +450
Rory McIlroy +480
Bryson Dechambeau +1000
Ludvig Aberg +1900
Xander Schauffele +1900
Jon Rahm +2000
Collin Morikawa +2100
Justin Thomas +2100
Joaquin Niemann +2800
Viktor Hovland +3400
Jordan Spieth +4100
Brooks Koepka +4400
Tommy Fleetwood +4400
Patrick Cantlay +4400
Will Zalatoris +4600
Hideki Matsuyama +4800
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5500
Si Woo Kim +5500
Tom Kim +5500
Shane Lowry +6500
Jason Day +6500
Russell Henley +6500
Patrick Reed +7000
Justin Rose +7000
Dustin Johnson +7500
Sungjae Im +7500
Sahith Theegala +7500
Min Woo Lee +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Corey Conners +8500
Cameron Young +9000
Brian Harman +9000
Davis Thompson +9000
Cameron Smith +9500
Wyndham Clark +9500
Sepp Straka +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
Max Homa +11000
Robert MacIntyre +12000
Nicolai Hojgaard +12000
Tony Finau +14000
Sam Burns +15000
Adam Scott +15000
Rickie Fowler +15000
Billy Horschel +16000
Dean Burmester +16000
Taylor Pendrith +16000
Talor Gooch +16000
Byeong Hun An +16000
Keegan Bradley +17000
Thomas Detry +17000
Stephan Jaeger +19000
Aaron Rai +19000
Nick Dunlap +19000
Keita Nakajima +19000
Harris English +19000
Rasmus Hojgaard +19000
Cameron Davis +19000
Matt McCarty +19000
Nick Taylor +19000
Davis Riley +19000

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