2025 PGA Championship picks, predictions: Five trends that identify this year’s winner at Quail Hollow

CHARLOTTE — The strongest field of the golf season ascends on Quail Hollow Club this week for the 2025 PGA Championship. Welcoming 156 players to the Charlotte area, Quail Hollow hosts its second major championship in the last decade, though it will be the first time presenting such an event in May.

Its prior hosting gig came at the 2017 PGA Championship when Justin Thomas raised the Wanamaker Trophy. The wiry American emerged from a crowded leaderboard featuring the likes of Patrick Reed and Hideki Matsuyama to claim the first major of his career. Those three players may well factor once again eight years later, but are there any reasons why they would not?

These trends will lead you to a specific conclusion. This exercise was spot on for the 2025 Masters and 2024 PGA Championship when they correctly predicted Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele, respectively, among a small group of legitimate contenders for those titles. Schauffele, now a two-time major champion, is rounding into form, but he is not quite to the level of the top three on the oddsboard. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (5-1), reigning Masters champion Rory McIlroy (5-1) and reigning U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau (8-1) comprise those top three spots, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.

The three favorites seem to be in a league of their own, but there are a number of contenders who appear keen on joining them at the PGA Championship where big-name winners like Schauffele (20-1), Thomas (18-1) and Brooks Koepka (50-1) have reigned in recent years.

Let’s see who will actually contend at the 2025 PGA Championship based on five key trends … 

1. Official World Golf Rankings

The rankings have lost some accuracy and completeness without accounting for play on LIV Golf, but they are still sound for tours that receive points. We are going to have to get a little flexible here as nine of last 10 winners found themselves ranked inside the top 50 of the OWGR at the time of triumph (Mickelson was ranked 115th). Six of the last 10 were ranked inside the top 10, a list that does not include Koepka in 2023, so let’s start with that top-50 cutoff point for those players on tours that do receive points.

Eliminated: Non-LIV golfers outside the top 50 of the OWGR, notably Michael Kim, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Keith Mitchell and Michael Block.

2. Course changes, stakes do not

The PGA Championship has moved in more ways than one over the last 10 years. Not only does the championship rotate golf courses, it has also moved up from August to May on the calendar. The last time the championship was held at Quail Hollow it was in August as the tournament changed months a couple seasons later. Regardless, quality has proven to be an important barometer at this championship in particular. Nine of the last 10 champions had a top-20 finish to their name with the lone exception being Collin Morikawa, who won in his debut appearance (2020).

Eliminated: Joaquin Niemann, David Puig, Tom McKibbin, Richard Bland, John Catlin, Nick Dunlap, Nico Echavarria, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, Max Greyserman, J.T. Poston, Denny McCarthy, Tom Kim, Byeong Hun An, Nick Taylor, Andrew Novak, Aaron Rai, J.J. Spaun, Akshay Bhatia, Wyndham Clark, Maverick McNealy, Ludvig Åberg

3. What have you done for me lately?

Major champions rarely pop up unannounced, and even Mickelson had flashed some form in 2021. The six-time major champion won a couple times on the Champions Tour that fall and actually held the first-round lead on the PGA Tour two weeks prior to his victory. Jason Day and Thomas (2017) had already claimed multiple victories, while Koepka (2018, 2023) and Morikawa entered the winner’s circle within the prior handful of starts. Nine of the last 10 winners had at least one top-five finish under their belt during the calendar year.

Eliminated: Martin Kaymer, Adam Scott, Sahith Theegala, Robert MacIntyre, Xander Schauffele

4. Let’s get technical

If finishing positions don’t do it for you, strokes-gained data is likely your vice. The last 10 champions all averaged positive strokes gained per round over the prior three months with Mickelson and Jimmy Walker bringing up the rear at +0.43 and +0.040, respectively. When looking at this, it makes sense they flew in under the radar. 

The same cannot be said for Day (+2.03), Koepka in 2018 (+2.09), Thomas in 2022 (+2.36) and Schauffele last year (+2.75). All together, this group of champions averaged +1.63 strokes gained per round — the benchmark we will be utilizing much to the dismay of many potential contenders.

Eliminated: Phil Mickelson, Dean Burmester, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, Justin Rose, Brian Harman, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Tom Hoge, Thomas Detry, Lucas Glover, Harris English, Jason Day, Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka

5. Speak softly and carry a big stick

Since the championship has moved to May, some of the best drivers in the world have fared extremely well. Walker was the only winner to post negative strokes-gained off the tee figures in the lead up to his win, but his triumph was also the last of which came in August. Since then, the champions have averaged +0.53 strokes gained off the tee three months prior to their victories.

Eliminated: Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood

That leaves us with … seven golfers

• Scottie Scheffler (5-1)
• Rory McIlroy (5-1)
• Bryson DeChambeau (8-1)
• Jon Rahm (20-1)
• Collin Morikawa (22-1)
• Patrick Cantlay (33-1)
• Corey Conners (50-1)

There may be one surprise here, but it’s not the top three names, who combined possess three of the last five major championships. Only a recently injured Schauffele holds the other two trophies. If there’s a bet between them three and the rest of the field, the field may be in trouble. You can take Scheffler and McIlroy (+200) or the field (all other golfers at -285) on BetMGM.

Meanwhile, Morikawa and Cantlay have been rock solid all season long but are without wins for a substantial amount of time. Morikawa is the shortest in terms of distance among this crop of players and the softness of the golf course may hinder his ability off the tee but may also accentuate his pinpoint accuracy with the irons.

What to do with Rahm is an interesting question. He has 19 straight top 10s on LIV Golf and back-to-back top 15s in major championships, but he is currently experiencing the worst iron season of his career. If his scoring clubs can fire — the same goes for DeChambeau to an extent — then the Spaniard should relish this week’s opportunity. 

Scoring clubs are no issue for the Canadian as Conners entered the final round at the Masters as the closest chaser to that final pairing thanks in large part to his iron play. He’s factored in recent PGA Championships and recent tournaments at Quail Hollow, but a major triumph would be, well, a major leap.

Who will win the PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that’s nailed 14 golf majors, including the past four Masters, and is up over $9,000 since June 2020.