Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is generating plenty of buzz during what could be a historic season, but he’s not the only slugger worth watching in the New York outfield. Trent Grisham hit two homers on Monday and is now third in the American League behind only Judge (14) and Cal Raleigh (13) with 12 on the season. Grisham has a stellar 1.184 OPS against right-handed pitching this season and he’ll match up with Mariners righty Bryan Woo on Tuesday.
The latest MLB home runs odds from BetMGM price Grisham at +400 to go yard while you can find the best odds on Judge (+235) and Raleigh (+400) on FanDuel. Might they be worth adding to your MLB HR parlays tonight? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model has hit at least one MLB home run prop in six of the last 10 days and is up 38.6 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 35 days after hitting James Wood (+520) and Raleigh (+360) on Monday. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +15109 odds and would pay out $760.44 on a $5 bet at BetMGM.
Juan Soto, Mets (+425)
The four-time MLB all-star hit a career-high 41 home runs last season with the Yankees and then made the move across town to the Mets on a 15-year, $765 million contract this offseason. Now Soto has already hit eight home runs over his first 42 games and he’s sporting a 1.067 OPS this month after a sluggish April. BetMGM has the best price on Soto to hit a homer on Tuesday and the model sees value, with a projected line of +380 because of a good matchup.
“While Soto has actually been better against left-handed pitchers, he has seven of his eight home runs against right-handed pitching this season,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Keller’s home run allowed rate is trending for a career low so far this season, but we expect some regression going forward. Left-handed bats are hitting .318 against Keller this season and have hit all three HRs that he’s allowed.”
Luis Robert, White Sox (+425)
The White Sox are abysmal and Robert is likely going to be used as a trade chip this season, but his tools are undeniable. In his one truly healthy season, he posted an .857 OPS with 38 home runs, 80 RBI and 20 stolen bases while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. He’s hitting just .186 on the season, but he has a .863 OPS against left-handed pitching and has an .879 career OPS against lefties.
“Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott has given up 39 of his 44 career home runs to right-handed hitters — who have a nearly 200 point higher OPS against Abbott compared to lefties,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +300 for Robert to hit a homer.” It’s BetMGM with the best price again in its MLB HR odds.
Jonathan Aranda, Rays (+500)
The 24-year-old has had short stints with the Rays in each of the last three seasons, but he finally earned an everyday role this spring and he’s making the most of it. He’s fourth in the MLB with a .342 average and he’s slugging .553 on the season with five home runs and nine doubles. He’ll also get to play in a dome against a pitcher he’s seen well historically on a day where weather is expected to impact several games.
“Aranda has fared very well against Jose Berrios in his career, going 4-8 with two home runs against him. Berrios has given up 93 home runs since 2022 which is the highest in the majors during that span,” Fetner said. “Given Aranda’s success against Berrios and Berrios’ propensity for giving up home runs, we like this play and would set the line for Aranda to hit a HR at +350.” BetMGM and DraftKings are both offering +500 for this MLB HR prop.
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 105-51 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 29-19 over his last 48 MLB sides picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Tuesday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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