Welcome to the Opening Line, where we look at ways to have a little fun identifying the upcoming weekend’s biggest events and most intriguing wagers. Starting today, this weekend we’ve got even more NBA and NHL playoff action, a marketing scheme gone awry in MLB, one sport getting its second major right while another gets it horribly wrong, the FA Cup being awarded, and most importantly, the WNBA is back. Let’s get to it!
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(All odds referenced as of Friday morning.)
PGA Championship
Friday, Saturday and Sunday from 8:00 AM to 7:00 PM
ESPN/CBS
The bet: Scottie Scheffler – To birdie any par 3 hole in each of last 3 rounds (-110 on Friday)
Before we head to the links, let’s pour some out quickly for the Preakness. After a level of coverage for the Kentucky Derby that would make the Super Bowl blush, justified by record ratings, Sovereignty is sitting out rather than going for the Triple Crown. Who is the trainer, Joel Embiid? You would think these horses have the rest of their lives to focus on load management. Can you imagine if golf followed up the Masters by only allowing people from the Korn Ferry Tour in the PGA Championship? I know it’s different as the caddies don’t ride on the golfers’ backs whacking them with nine irons (wait, did I just fix golf too?), but something has to be done (calendar fix?) so that the 21 million plus who watched the Derby care about the sport for more than two minutes a year. Our great Dana O’Neil wrote more on the Triple Crown conundrum here, but as you can tell, this is killing me.
Luckily, the full field is at the PGA, though the top players barely showed up on Thursday. Scottie Scheffler, the pre-tournament favorite, is most likely to bounce back, not only because he wasn’t really bad in Round 1 (his two under sits a reachable five off the pace), but he also happens to be the best golfer alive. However, the most fun way to bet on golf isn’t picking the winner, which takes a full four days to determine, it’s to wager hole-by-hole. Given it’s a never-ending series of discrete events separated by 3-4 minutes at a time, golf is perfectly set up for live betting, and you can turn a lazy Sunday into a vigorous vibe rivaling a blackjack table. It’s got all the benefits of playing the sport (day drinking, gambling, hanging out with friends) without all the pesky exercise. I think I just fixed golf again.
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Since that’s too hard to fully preview in a static article, go with Scheffler to get a birdie on a par-3 in each of the last three rounds. After Quail Hollow surrendered 56 par-3 birdies on Thursday, you are getting close to even money that a guy who shot five under on Friday at this tourney last year, which was less than an hour after being released from prison. Scottie possesses the mental strength to similarly strike two good shots in a row. Plus, reducing your interest in the whole tournament down to 12 holes frees up so much time to spend not watching the Preakness.
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Friday at 8:00 PM EST
ESPN
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers
Friday at 8:08 PM EST
TNT
The bet: Knicks/Panthers Moneyline Parlay (+140)
The fortunes of the two defending champions are set to diverge as the sports world cleans house on a Friday night. After the devastating Jayson Tatum news, the Celtics enjoyed a classic dead cat bounce to force a Game 6, but Jaylen Brown, who still struggles going left more than Derek Zoolander, is not going to carry them to three straight wins. I’m willing to bet their gutsy title defense ends in Gotham as the Knicks snap a 25-year Eastern Conference Finals drought in front of their suddenly nervous fans.
Conversely, the Florida Panthers have run off three in a row against the Toronto Maple Leafs, including an overpowering 6-1 away win in Game 5 that saw the home fans move from nervous to outright enraged. Read this article and then tell me you are still comfortable laying a single dollar on the Leafs. If it’s alright with you, I’m going to go with the team that doesn’t inspire expertly-written stories struggling to accurately rank all the different ways they suck.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees
Friday at 7:05 PM EST, Saturday at 1:05 PM EST, Sunday at 7:00 PM EST
MLB.TV/ESPN
The bet: Unders all Weekend (Under 9, -130 on Friday)
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In the words of Adam Sandler (Yankees fan) imitating Jerry Seinfeld (Mets fanatic) on Saturday Night Live, “Who are the ad wizards that came up with this one?” The MLB is desperately guilty of trying to make fetch happen, as they created a rivalry weekend that features none of the teams playing their actual rivals. At least the Mariners and Padres leaned into the silliness by creating the Vedder Cup. Such creativity should be mandatory in all these games. Aaron Judge ends Sunday night kissing a golden Pizza Rat or we riot.
Even if the Yankees were playing the Red Sox, you know what makes rivalry weekend work in a sport like college football? Scarcity. Michigan beats Ohio State and the Buckeyes have to live with it for a year, with only a National Title trophy (what’s left of it) available to catch their tears. Yankees win on Friday night and the Mets’ redemption is only 15 hours away. Scarcity is exceptionally valuable in sports as it’s the same reason that my stack of Ken Griffey Jr. rookie cards didn’t lead to early retirement and instead me toil part-time at jah New York Times (shout-out Quiad army!).
Luckily, we don’t need contrived marketing gimmicks to make May baseball interesting, as a well-placed $5 wager can make you loathe any opponent for a short period. I like to be efficient with my sports hate, so I’m reversing course from last week and fading both teams by taking unders all weekend long. The Mets are third-worst in the league at covering overs, with low ones hitting 61 percent of the time, and their games have only exceeded nine runs once in the last 10 times out. With the match-up of public teams pushing up the line, I look forward to this trend continuing, allowing me to win my rivalry versus my available balance for once.
FA Cup Final – Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City
Saturday at 11:30 AM
ESPN+
The bet: Double Chance and Total Goals – Tie or Manchester City and Over 2.5 Goals (+110)
The FA Cup final is always a special day on the calendar, as it’s one of sports oldest competitions. The first time it was awarded in 1872, Thomas Edison hadn’t invented the light bulb yet, so Everton was still enjoyable to watch at night. Interestingly, a team named Crystal Palace played in the tournament, but not the same Crystal Palace we’ll see in Wembley, making them the Aunt Viv of English football.
Regardless of which Crystal Palace side shows up on Saturday, they are in trouble. Not even a Ballon d’Or would have proven Rodri’s value more than his devastating injury, immediately sending the dynastic Manchester City team into a tailspin for the rest of the season. But in a sign of their true greatness, disaster for them means a likely top-4 finish and a chance to lift one of the most prestigious cups in the world. Erling Haaland has already talked about how important this game is for him and when the Terminator walks determined into battle, you like his side to prevail. Add in the fact that Crystal Palace has scored 11 goals in their last four FA cup matches and these two teams treated fans to a 5-2 banger just last month, and I like Man City to win 2-1, 3-1, 3-0, 3-2 or enter extra time at 2-2, allowing you to cash plus money on every one of those highly-entertaining outcomes.
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever
Saturday at 3:00 PM
ABC
The bet: Sky +7.5 (-115)
Cailin Clark and Angel Reese really exposed what weaklings play football, going from a grueling college season straight into a full WNBA schedule with the world’s best women’s players targeting them night after night. I say we move the NFL Draft to late December and declare draftees playoff eligible to prove they are as tough as these two remarkable athletes.
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Now that the two stars have had a little time to rest and recover, we are in for a treat on Saturday as they renew their rivalry (take notes, MLB) on the national stage. Clark, in particular, seems poised to level up, going 7-14 from deep in preseason after shooting 20 percent on threes in the playoffs last year. But her extreme popularity makes it hard to get good lines, as no one wants to bet against her. Well, I’m your huckleberry. With Reese and Kamilla Cardoso wiping out second-chance opportunities on the boards and new additions Ariel Atkins and Hailey Van Lith ready to provide a scoring boost, the Sky seem poised to play in a lot of extremely close, extremely physical games this year, starting on Saturday. With the lane closed off and after being hounded non-stop up the floor, a frustrated Clark might just resort to bombing away from deep, making her over on 3.5 made threes also attractive. But unless she makes them all, Chicago seems well-positioned to cover the 7.5 points, and more importantly, lets you spend the rest of the weekend as a winner.
Toby Mergler is a freelance contributor to the Athletic and is the co-founder of the Extra Points Podcast Network. He’s hosted podcasts for ESPN and served as a columnist for Vice Sports, MLB.com and ESPN Page 2. He would tell you where he got his degrees, but the school offered him a sweetheart deal to actually erase his name, image and likeness.
(Photo of Aaron Judge: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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