
The Braves started this season in a ditch, losing seven straight and 11 of their first 15 games. But things have turned around the last few weeks, and after taking two of three in Boston on the weekend, Atlanta stands a respectable 24-23 on the year. The Fangraphs playoff calculator says this club is just under 70% to make the playoffs.
Rookie catcher Drake Baldwin has been a big part of the turnaround.
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Baldwin, 24, entered the season with some prospect juice. The three main ranking clipboards had him inside their respective top 65s, with a high of 37th (Baseball Prospectus). He’s shown a decent average and eye in the minors, with some pop.
Atlanta, of course, already has a good catcher in Sean Murphy. And there’s been nothing wrong with Murphy’s offense this year — eight homers, an OPS+ of 133 (where 100 is average). But Baldwin has beaten Murphy in every slash column this year — .357 average, .400 OBP, .583 slugging. That hashes out to a 170 OPS+.
Baldwin has started five of Atlanta’s last eight games, with Murphy picking up the other three. It’s easy to sit Baldwin against left-handed starters — he’s a lefty swinger, Murphy bats right-handed — but this isn’t a strict platoon. The Braves are simply leaning into their best hitter so far. Baldwin doesn’t have enough at-bats yet to qualify for MLB leaderboards, but all of his Baseball Savant hard-hit sliders are pinned to the right. When the kid connects, you can hear the ball screaming.
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Baldwin’s lineup profile has risen in recent games — he batted fifth most of last week, with one day in the No. 2 slot. I understand why Baldwin was the most added Yahoo catcher over the weekend, though he’s still ready to grab in over 80% of leagues. The Braves face a righty starter in eight of their next 11 games; figure on Baldwin to start the majority of those nights.
OF Will Benson, Reds (25%)
We’ve had some fantasy fun with Benson before — he was a .275/.365/.498 stick in 2023, with 11 homers and 19 steals over 108 games. That had us excited for the following season, when the bottom dropped out — .187 average, 76 OPS+. But player development is not always linear.
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Benson didn’t make the Reds out of camp but he’s been a smash since his recall — five homers in nine games, .367/.424/.933 slash. All of those homers came in the last four games, which quickly jumped Benson’s roster percentage. There’s still plenty of time to get on board, ride the hot hand. Even if Benson’s inevitable regression lands somewhere in his 2023 production range, that’s still a useful fantasy player.
OF Jordan Beck, Rockies (26%)
Everyone knows the Rockies are easily the worst team in baseball, but we still have to keep their offense on speed dial for home games. And Beck has become a key part of that offense, slotting in the top three of the order for three straight weeks. Beck is slashing .287/.348/.653 since his mid-April recall, with eight homers and a couple of steals. That makes him a top 12 offensive player during that span, offering plus value in four different categories.
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The thin air is your friend this week, with Colorado at home against the Phillies and Yankees. The Rockies don’t have an A to Z lineup, but good things can happen at the top. I’m surprised it’s taken so long for Beck to graduate from this column, but this should be the week that happens.
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3B/OF Miguel Vargas, White Sox (12%)
Vargas often caught my eye in his days with the Dodgers, where he showed excellent plate discipline but didn’t do that much when he actually made contact. You respect the approach. Maybe things are starting to turn with the results, because he’s coming off a three-homer weekend at Wrigley Field, pushing his slash up to .245/.328/.421 (with an OPS+ of 114). His pitch-recognition metrics are all above board, it’s just a matter of doing more damage when he gets his pitch. Given the shallow nature of third base these days, Vargas is worth consideration in medium and deeper pools.
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OF Trevor Larnach, Twins (15%)
Larnach has become an every-day staple for the Twins, and he was especially central to the team’s recent 13-game winning streak — Larnach slashed .278/.328/.537 over that span, with 9 runs, 3 homers and 9 RBI. You’ll usually find Larnach locked into the second slot in the lineup, though he did bat first this past weekend. He’s capable of giving you a neutral average, sneaky pop and decent run-production stats, given his position in the order. He’ll steal the occasional base, too. Larnach’s production is best against opposing righties, so the week’s RHP-only schedule is perfect for him.
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