The Chicago Cubs have the best offense in baseball and Kyle Tucker has been a driving force in the franchise’s run-scoring frenzy. The three-time MLB all-star was traded to Chicago from Houston last offseason because the Astros were unlikely to re-sign him and Tucker continues to produce. He’s slashing .268/.381/.531 this year and slugged his 11th home run of the season on Tuesday in a 14-1 win over the Marlins.
Now, he’ll have another juicy matchup against Miami righty Max Meyer, who has given up 24 home runs in 113 1/3 career innings, yet you can still find Tucker at +425 in the latest MLB home runs odds from BetMGM. Tucker typically hits home runs in clusters, so that’s an alluring price and first-time users can also add a little insurance before placing any MLB HR bets with a BetMGM promo code. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 24.5 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 43 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Wednesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, May 21:
Kyle Tucker, Cubs (+425)
Tucker was having the best season of his career in 2024 before fouling a ball off his shin and fracturing his tibia. However, he’s pretty much picked up right where he left off despite the change of scenery. In particular, Tucker has been excellent on the road this season, with a .994 OPS and eight of his 11 home runs coming away from home.
“When you can get a left vs right matchup at a reasonable price with a player as good as Tucker, it’s usually at least worth a sprinkle,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set Tucker’s line at +370 to hit a HR.” BetMGM and Bet365 have Tucker at +425 today. You can also boost your bankroll with the latest Bet365 promo code.
Tyler Stephenson, Reds (+560)
FanDuel is offering the best price by far for this MLB HR prop, with most books offering in the +450 range, and you can also get an added bonus if this is your first bet with this FanDuel promo code. Stephenson missed the first month of the season with a strained left oblique and has one home run in 52 at-bats since his return to action, but he hit a career-high 19 home runs last season and his batted-ball metrics are strong over a small sample. His 91.7 mph average exit velocity and 51.7% hard-hit contact rate would both be career-highs.
“When an opponent starts a left-handed pitcher, Stephenson is a career .295 hitter with an .872 OPS,” Fetner said. “Andrew Heaney is susceptible to giving up home runs and 42 of the 46 home runs he allowed in 2023 and 2024 came against right-handed bats.” The model would set Stephenson’s line at +425 today.
Riley Greene, Tigers (+650)
The 24-year-old is in his fourth MLB season and he’s coming off a breakout campaign where he earned his first all-star nod and slashed .262/.348/.469 with 24 home runs and 72 RBI. This season, he’s been even better, with .872 OPS and 12 home runs after going yard on against the Cardinals on Tuesday.
“Greene has a 1.027 OPS vs righties this season compared to a .529 OPS vs lefties,” Fetner noted. “Cardinals’ SP Andre Pallante has given up 8 HRs this season after allowing just 8 in 121 IP last season.” The model sets Greene’s line at +400 tonight, so you’re getting tremendous value with this price from BetMGM.
Where to bet MLB props on Wednesday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Wednesday:
| Sportsbook | Bonus offer | Promo code |
|---|---|---|
|
Bet $1, double your winnings next 10 bets |
CBSDYW |
|
|
BetMGM |
Up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses |
CBSSPORTS |
|
FanDuel |
Bet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins |
No code required |
|
Bet $5, Get $200 in bonus bets instantly |
No code required |
|
|
Bet and get up to $1,000 in No Sweat Bets |
No code required |
|
|
bet365 |
Bet $5, Get $150 in bonus bets win or lose |
CBSBET365 |
More MLB picks for Wednesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 115-59 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 24-16 over his last 40 MLB picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Wednesday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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