The NFL playoff format belongs in “Saturday Night Live’s” Washington’s Dream sketch because there’s no way a league that made $23 billion in revenue last season should still be using this outdated playoff format. It makes no sense, but they’ll continue to use it after the Lions withdrew their playoff format proposal on Wednesday morning.
The proposal was for playoff seeding to be determined by the best records instead of by division winners first.
This would have eliminated the issue where a team with a worse record hosts a playoff game. And this happens more than you would think. Four of the six wild-card matchups last season would have been different under the proposed new format, including all three in the NFC.
A change was necessary after five of the 12 wild-card matchups in the last two postseasons featured a host team with a worse record than their opponent. Those teams were 4-1.
Division winners hosting wild-card game vs. team with better record (past two seasons)
| Won Division | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2024 |
Rams (10-7) |
Vikings (14-3) |
Won |
|
2024 |
Buccaneers (10-7) |
Commanders (12-5) |
Lost |
|
2024 |
Texans (10-7) |
Chargers (11-6) |
Won |
|
2023 |
Buccaneers (9-8) |
Eagles (11-6) |
Won |
|
2023 |
Texans (10-7) |
Browns (11-6) |
Won |
Overall, division champions have a 17-15 all-time record in the wild-card round when they have a worse record than their opponent. Simple logic would suggest teams with worse records should not have a winning record in these spots in the playoffs. That’s the value of home-field advantage.
The pure lunacy of the current format was on display in Week 18 of last season. The 14-2 Lions and 14-2 Vikings played a game where the winner would win the NFC North and get the NFC’s top seed … and the loser would be the five seed.
There’s no way that should happen. Now of course, both teams went one-and-done in the postseason, but the evidence is still overwhelming. One seeds have made it to the Super Bowl 50 times and only three five seeds have ever done it. The path is significantly harder as a lower seed, yet two 14-win teams faced off in Week 18 with those massive stakes.
Quality teams like the Vikings that happened to not win their division get the short end of the stick. Consider that 8% (two of 25) of non-division winners with a 12-plus win season have won a Super Bowl. Compare that to 21% of division winners with 12-plus wins that eventually won it all.
The last 13 non-division winners with 12-plus wins failed to reach the Super Bowl, and six lost their playoff opener. I’m not saying any of the teams listed below should have won a title, but they would have gotten a fairer shake with a better seed.
Non-division winners with 12-plus-win seasons (since 2000)
| Made Super Bowl? | |
|---|---|
|
2024 Commanders |
No |
|
2024 Vikings |
No |
|
2022 Cowboys |
No |
|
2018 Chargers |
No |
|
2016 Raiders |
No |
|
2013 49ers |
No |
|
2011 Steelers |
No |
|
2010 Ravens |
No |
|
2008 Colts |
No |
|
2005 Jaguars |
No |
|
2003 Titans |
No |
|
2001 Packers |
No |
|
2001 49ers |
No |
|
2000 Ravens |
Yes |
Clearly, starting the playoffs with a road game is tougher.
The worst scenario is when a team hosts a playoff game without a winning record because it won its division. That’s happened six times since the merger. Those teams went 4-2 in their playoff opener at home, and three of those wins came against Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning. Not a good look.
Hosted playoff game without winning record (since 1970)
| Team | Opponent | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022 |
Buccaneers |
Cowboys |
Lost |
|
2020 |
Washington |
Buccaneers |
Lost |
|
2014 |
Panthers |
Cardinals |
Won |
|
2011 |
Broncos |
Steelers |
Won |
|
2010 |
Seahawks |
Saints |
Won |
|
2008 |
Chargers |
Colts |
Won |
OK, the “Beastquake” run where Marshawn Lynch ran over like eight defenders propelling the 7-9 Seahawks past the 11-5 Saints was pretty awesome, but you get the point.
Why place so much value on a division title? The importance of the division is still reflected in a schedule where teams play six of their 17 games vs. their own division. There’s no need to reward average teams with a home playoff game because they played in a bad division.
Unfortunately we did not get a much-needed outcome with the Lions withdrawing their proposal. It’s even more frustrating considering the NFL has moved away from outdated formats in the past. In 1972, the 14-0 Dolphins actually played on the road in Pittsburgh against the 11-3 Steelers in the AFC championship game. It’s hard to believe that ever happened, but back then home teams in the playoffs were decided by a yearly divisional rotation.
The NFL could have looked at other sports, too. The College Football Playoff was introduced 10 years ago. That same year, the NBA moved away from a playoff format where division champions were guaranteed a top-four seed and home-court advantage in the first round. It would have made no sense if the 41-41 Magic got to host a first-round series this year, but that would have been the case if the league never changed formats.
The NFL can’t allow something like that to happen again under its watch. But that’s exactly the message they are sending as they continue to live in the stone age with this playoff format.
This news was originally published on this post .
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