Justin Verlander lands on IL with pec strain: What this means for 42-year-old pitcher’s chase for 300 wins

The San Francisco Giants have placed right-handed starter Justin Verlander on the 15-day injured list with a mild pectoral strain. The move was made retroactive to May 18. According to manager Bob Melvin, Verlander is expected to miss just two starts before rejoining the rotation – barring setback, of course. 

The move was made after Verlander experienced diminished velocity during his most recent start on Sunday. “There are always things you’re pushing through,” Verlander told reporters. “It’s always difficult to be 100 percent in this game. It was one of those things where I thought I was going to be just fine. Then I go out there and start throwing, look up (at the scoreboard) after the first pitch and see 90-91, and I thought, ‘Oh, boy. Gonna be a tough day.'”

This season, Verlander for the contending Giants has pitched to a 4.33 ERA (89 ERA+) with an FIP of 4.77 in 10 starts and 52 innings. The Giants have options to cover that pair of starts, including Kyle Harrison, who could be moved back to the rotation. 

The Giants are presently 29-21, which puts them a pair of games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West and in second wild-card position in the NL behind the New York Mets (+105 to make the postseason, per Caesars). 

The other consideration when it comes to Verlander’s IL stint  – one less pressing and more individualized – is what any derailment, even one as seemingly minor as this one, means for his prospects of reaching 300 career wins. Verlander is 0-3 this season, which means he remains stuck on 262 wins. That, in turn, means he remains 38 wins shy of 300. 

Needless to say, that’s a heavy lift for a pitcher who’s 42 years of age, is suffering from declining performance, and also struggled with health and effectiveness in 2024. It’s been since Sept. 28 of last year since Verlander recorded a win. 

Age and performance trends give Verlander essentially zero shot at reaching 300 wins. Even across Verlander’s legendary and quite lengthy peak – spanning from his Rookie of the Year season to his most recent Cy Young Award and not including the abbreviated 2020 campaign – he averaged 16 wins per season. There’s of course not a perfect relationship between pitcher effectiveness and pitcher win-loss record, but what are the chances Verlander rediscovers something close to peak excellence in his forties and then sustains it for at least another two and a half years? This is one of those questions that answers itself.

The 300-game winner is of course a vanishing phenomenon in Major League Baseball. Starting pitchers don’t pitch as deeply into games as they once did, and increasingly they don’t take their rotation turns as often as they once did, even when healthy. And then there’s a matter of attrition, which in this era of maximized velocity and spin is a constant concern. No pitcher has won 300 games since Randy Johnson did so in June of 2009, which means it’s been a drought of almost 16 years. That’s not the longest span of time between 300-game winners, but it’s not far from it. Behind Verlander in the wins queue among active pitchers is 40-year-old Max Scherzer with 216. It would take even more of a miracle for him to get there. The leader among pitchers who hasn’t yet turned 30? That’s Verlander’s teammate Logan Webb, who has all of 60 wins to his credit. 

Circling back, the longest drought between 300-game winners is more than 20 years. Lefty Grove won his 300th on July 25, 1941, and the next member of the guild didn’t come along until Warren Spahn notched No. 300 on Aug. 11, 1961. That “record” of sorts will almost certainly be broken a few seasons from now, and it’s fair to wonder if, absent major structural changes to the game, whether we’ll ever see a 300-game winner again. Verlander was highly unlikely to reach the vanishingly elusive benchmark even before suffering this minor injury, but now it’s even a bit more of a longshot.