- The market is changing: For years, betting unders on season-long player props was the standard approach, as sportsbooks often set inflated lines. But in recent seasons, the market has shifted, creating more value on the over, especially for players with elite talent.
- Titans QB Cam Ward will take the reins from Day 1: If Ward averages a modest 6.8 yards per attempt on 500 passes, he would exceed his yardage projection by 200 yards in his rookie year.
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Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes
QB Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
- Passing yards: Over/under 3,200.5
- Passing touchdowns: Over/under 18.5
I’m leaning toward the over on both projections for Cam Ward’s rookie season. With extensive college experience across multiple systems, Ward’s transition to the NFL may be smoother than that of a typical rookie. If he averages a modest 6.8 yards per attempt on 500 passes, he would exceed his yardage projection by 200 yards. While the Titans’ receiving corps outside of Calvin Ridley is a concern, a breakout from one of their three rookie wideouts, along with continued development from tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, could give the former Hurricane quarterback a solid shot at surpassing expectations in 2025.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
- Rushing yards: Over/under 1,075.5
With a new coaching staff and quarterback in Las Vegas, projecting anything with certainty for the Raiders in 2025 is a challenge. However, the safest bet may be their commitment to rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, whom they selected with the No. 6 overall pick in this year’s draft. If Chip Kelly brings his signature up-tempo, run-heavy offense back to the NFL, Jeanty could see close to 250 carries. At that volume, he would need to average just 4.4 yards per carry to reach 1,100 rushing yards.
At 211 pounds, there are valid questions about whether the former Boise State star can handle a full NFL workload. But if he stays healthy, Jeanty has a realistic shot at hitting that mark, just as the smaller Bucky Irving did in 2024.
WR Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Receiving yards: Over/under 750.5
Hunter is one of the most challenging prospects to project in NFL history, as he’s attempting to play both ways at a level rarely seen in the modern era. However, post-draft comments from the coaching staff — along with significant offensive reps during rookie minicamp and OTAs — suggest he’ll see plenty of action at wide receiver in 2025. This will also be the first time the Heisman Trophy winner spends most of his practice and meeting time focused on offense, as he was primarily utilized as a cornerback in college.
Given the uncertainty, this isn’t a bet to make with high confidence. Still, with Hunter’s elite upside, a talented quarterback throwing him the ball, and a proven playcaller guiding the offense, I’d lean toward the over on his receiving production.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
- Receiving yards: Over/under 825.5
For years, betting unders on season-long player props was the standard approach, as sportsbooks often set inflated lines. But in recent seasons, the market has shifted, creating more value on the over, especially for players with elite talent.
With that in mind, I’m backing the over on Tetairoa McMillan’s rookie prop. McMillan joins a Panthers receiving corps where he should command a high volume of targets, paired with quarterback Bryce Young, who showed signs of turning the corner with PFF grades of 91.7, 80.3 and 89.3 over his final three games of 2024. While there’s some risk in projecting Young to sustain that level of play, a regression in efficiency could result in even more passing volume as the team plays from behind.
McMillan proved he can handle heavy usage in college, recording 274 targets over the past two seasons. As a top-10 pick, he’s likely to be the focal point of the offense, and I expect the Panthers to feed him enough targets to clear this number in Year 1.
This news was originally published on this post .
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