When can we expect rookie QBs like Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough (and maybe Shedeur Sanders) to start?

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There weren’t that many quarterbacks picked in this year’s NFL Draft.

Only six quarterback went in the first 180 picks. That’s a big difference from last year, when six went in the first 12 picks. One quarterback this year, Jalen Milroe, is a true developmental prospect who seems very unlikely to start for the Seattle Seahawks this season. But the other five all seem to have a decent chance to become their team’s starter at some point this season, including two different rookies with the Cleveland Browns.

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Let’s look at when this season each of those five quarterbacks might take over as the starter:

Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

Let’s start with an easy one. If Ward isn’t starting Week 1, something really bad has happened in Tennessee. That’s why it’s a little weird that coach Brian Callahan is insistent on not naming Ward the starter, going as far as having him split reps with Will Levis in this portion of the offseason program. Nobody is fooled; Ward will get the Week 1 start. And it will be a tough one on the road against a good Denver Broncos defense.

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

Many teams with a rookie quarterback have good intentions of sitting him all season. That rarely happens, especially for first-round picks. When Giants GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll were with the 2018 Buffalo Bills, the team started Nathan Peterman over rookie Josh Allen in Week 1 (yes, Peterman actually started a game over future MVP Allen), then put in Allen when they were down 26-0 at halftime. Allen was the starter the rest of that season.

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“We had a little bit different quarterback room at the time, but he was going to sit his rookie year and then halftime of the opening game we’re getting smoked by Baltimore, so we put him in and the rest was history,” Schoen said on SiriusXM NFL Radio, via NFL.com. “So that plan didn’t go as well, but we didn’t have a Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston in the room.”

The Giants moved up to draft Dart and we all understand the situation there: Schoen and Daboll enter the season on the hot seat, and they play in a very tough division. They need to show some signs of progress, and that likely revolves around Dart showing something by the end of the season. Wilson is likely to start and Winston can replace him if he’s ineffective, but if the Giants are a sub-.500 team there will be a lot of pressure to try Dart. The Giants’ bye is Week 14, which might be the time to make the change if the Giants can wait that long. That would give Dart four games to show that promise Giants ownership is likely going to need to see. Before then the Giants have a tough schedule without any obvious soft landing spot for Dart to enter the starting lineup. But if things are really bad in New York, the team might not have much choice but to turn to the rookie even if he isn’t quite ready.

Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

Shough is probably the best quarterback on the Saints roster, but the franchise has a bit of a weird quarterback history. The Saints somehow haven’t drafted a quarterback in the first round since taking Archie Manning in 1971. Manning is also the only Saints rookie quarterback to start Week 1 via NFL.com.

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Shough, a second-round pick, seems set to snap that 54-year-old streak. Shough will turn 26 years old in September, so he’s not a normal developmental rookie quarterback. He played parts of seven seasons in college. That’s not the type of prospect who sits and learns. He almost certainly will start this season. The only question seems to be whether it will happen Week 1 or shortly after.

Shough will still have to win the job over Spencer Rattler or perhaps Jake Haener, who is dealing with an oblique injury. NFL teams get stubborn about starting rookie quarterbacks, even if they’re the best option, so there’s no guarantee Shough will be the QB1 right away. But Shough seems like a good bet to start Week 1 at home against the Arizona Cardinals, and that would be fairly historic for New Orleans.

Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns

This is the competition everyone will be watching, and for maybe the first time ever it’s due to the second quarterback selected in a team’s draft class. Sanders and his fall in the draft was a massive story, and he is a player who will get attention whether he’s first or fourth on the depth chart. But he does start off looking like the Browns’ fourth option. The door still could be open for either Sanders or Gabriel to get a shot early in the season.

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The Browns’ September schedule is really tough: vs. Bengals, at Ravens, vs. Packers, at Lions. Week 5 is no treat either, facing the Vikings in England. Then the Browns play at the Steelers in Week 6. That could be an 0-6 start and by then the quarterback carousel would be moving. Whether it’s Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett starting the season (and perhaps both get starts over those first six weeks if the Browns pile up losses), the Browns could be looking at a rookie to start by late October if they’re 1-5 or 0-6.

Gabriel was drafted two rounds before Sanders, which means the team obviously preferred Gabriel in April. That could change by October, but we shouldn’t assume that. Even if Cleveland turns to Gabriel by Week 7 (vs. Miami, a pretty good spot for a rookie debut) or after the Week 9 bye and he plays like a normal third-round rookie, it’s still possible Sanders gets a shot late in the season. Given the state of the Browns’ quarterback room it doesn’t seem impossible that four different quarterbacks start games for them this season if they post a terrible record. It’s also possible that Sanders moves up on the depth chart through preseason and isn’t QB4 by the time the season starts, and his turn comes up before December. It’s also possible the Browns don’t keep all four quarterbacks. Nothing is conventional about their QB room this season.

The Browns’ quarterback situation is messy and unpredictable. But unless they’re much better than anticipated it seems like a decent bet we’ll see a rookie start some games this season. Which rookie, and when, is tougher to figure out.

This news was originally published on this post .

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