THE BAT X fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Add Ben Brown, stream Agustín Ramírez

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Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions.

THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.

This week’s iteration suggests adding Ben Brown and streaming Agustín Ramírez. And there’s more … so much more. Let’s get to it.

Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty’s explainer.

The Waiver Wire

For first-time readers, we compare players’ year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you’ll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.

For example, Colton Cowser has thus far performed at a -$17.10 value, but THE BAT X expects him to have a rest-of-season value of $10.60. Cowser has only had 37 at-bats this season so far, so his Statcast numbers aren’t validated yet, but they’re trending toward red. While his .216 batting average and .275 OBP don’t stand out, his xBA is .243 and his xwOBA is .337 (not spectacular but better), and he’s hit three home runs so far. Last year, he finished with a .242 BA, a .321 OBP, 24 home runs and nine stolen bases in 499 at-bats. At age 25, he could improve this year, but it’s too early to tell by how much. On this list, J.T. Realmuto, Luis Robert Jr. and Brenton Doyle have the highest predicted rest-of-season values but are relatively highly rostered.

On the pitching side, Ben Brown (who has been on this list frequently) and Reese Olson (IL15) have the best projections for the remainder of the season, despite playing at -$18.50 and $2.70 levels, respectively. Brown is still available in many leagues, while Olson (even on the injured list) is more highly rostered. To date, Brown is 3-4 with a 5.37 ERA (4.23 xERA) in 63.2 innings pitched; however, his fastball velocity is in the 74th percentile, and his strikeout percentage is 27.7 (80th percentile). Additionally, he’s in the 67th percentile or better in chase percentage, whiff percentage, walk rate and extension. He could certainly improve going forward.

Fades and Trades

Like the waiver wire, fades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. THE BAT X has suggested fading or trading Steven Kwan for weeks.

In a previous iteration, Carty said of THE BAT X projection on Kwan, “It just doesn’t buy his power at all. He doesn’t hit the ball hard; he doesn’t hit the ball in the air much…. He has one of those extreme outlier profiles, though, where he has insane bat control, which is tougher to quantify, and maybe that just carries him beyond the projection. But all the Statcast metrics going into the projection just say he’s got no power.”

Since then, Kwan’s year-to-date value has dropped by over a dollar, but his ROS value has risen slightly. If you haven’t traded him yet, it could be time. For players like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cal Raleigh and Pete Alonso, you’re looking for high-level players as returns. While these three have been playing great baseball, THE BAT X expects some regression.

So, you could attempt to ship them for players who are also playing at a high level today and have a ROS value that matches PCA’s, Raleigh’s, and Alonso’s YTD values. None of these players are drop candidates though. Alex Bregman, who has the only negative valuation for the remainder of the season, is highly rostered and on the IL but is nearing a return. Keep an eye on how he performs. His xBA, xSLG and xwOBA to date are all lower than his actual stats.

According to THE BAT X projection system, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Kevin Gausman has a low YTD value and an even lower ROS value, so THE BAT X suggests ridding yourself of him now before it gets worse, maybe for someone on the trade targets list below. Through 76.2 IP, Gausman is 5-4 with a 3.87 ERA, which is serviceable. He relies heavily on his four-seamer (662) and split-finger (460), while sometimes turning to his slider (101). With a fastball velocity in the 52nd percentile, that strategy may not continue to work. Outside of Gausman, Kodai Senga and Merrill Kelly have performed relatively well but could be great trade bait, as THE BAT X expects regression.

Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the “Fade or Trade” list above, and see if there are deals to be made.

For example, maybe you think of shipping Kwan for Jazz Chisholm Jr., who just came off the IL and has performed below expectations but is on the hard-hitting Yankees with plenty of chances to score and bring batters in. While Chisholm’s YTD value is far below Kwan’s, his ROS value is superior. This isn’t to say, “Go make this trade today,” but instead to illustrate how to use the two lists in coordination.

Gunnar Henderson, whose YTD value increased by $2 over the last week, is another great player to target with a ROS valuation of $29.70. He’s now hitting .265 with eight home runs and seven stolen bases. He also had a 54.7 hard-hit percentage, which is in the 96th percentile. Given his K% (26.4)  and BB% (7.7), he needs to find more discipline at the plate, but if he does, he could fare much better going forward.

As for pitchers, last week we discussed George Kirby, who tops this list again. Since then, his ERA has dropped from 11.42 to 6.53, and his xERA is 4.23. He has one win under his belt now and has pitched in only 20.2 innings. The rust continues to come off, and his fastball velocity (96.2 mph), K% (28.4) and BB% (4.5) are all above the 80th percentile in the league. He’s still not performing as expected, so managers may be willing to let him go for a lesser return, and a ROS value of $25.10 from THE BAT X is promising. With negative YTD values, Cole Ragans, Spencer Strider and Dylan Cease may have managers willing to deal.

Hitting

Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. On Tuesday, many of the San Francisco Giants could have a good game, including Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee, as they go against the Colorado Rockies. Marlins Catcher and first baseman Agustín Ramírez is available on many waiver wires and could have a big game Monday evening against Pittsburgh.

Here’s a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA.

Aaron Judge, with his “underperforming” yet still incredible .435 xwOBA, is obviously fine. While Hyeseong Kim appears on this list as an overperformer, he is a rookie with only 58 at-bats, and his Statcast information can’t be validated yet, outside of his incredible 87th percentile sprint speed, which has enabled him to nab six stolen. He’s on a loaded Dodgers’ team, but is barely rostered and hitting .414 with a 1.029 OPS and two home runs. The rookie isn’t playing every day yet, but he has made a solid case for increased usage.

The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. We spoke about Ben Rice last week, but he’s still around 46% rostered (Yahoo), and his Statcast metrics are all red, except for his Whiff, K and BB rates. If he can improve in those categories, his breakout could be bigger than it is right now. Luis Rengifo, who has had bad luck over the past 30 days, according to his xwOBA, is Rice’s foil. His metrics, across the board, look pretty terrible, but his Whiff and K rates are 70th-percentile or above. He’s still in the lineup with a .206 average and only one home run, and while his xBA is .271, I still wouldn’t chase him based on his lack of power in the metrics and a 36th-percentile sprint speed.

Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. The Dodgers are on the list every week it seems, regardless of the matchup, due to their impressive roster. The Yankees face Kansas City and Boston, both of which are in fourth place in their respective divisions. Chisholm Jr., Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger could have better-than-usual weeks.

Pitching

THE BAT X projections have predicted the best one- and two-start pitchers of the week, as well as pitchers to consider benching and the best matchups for bullpens.

The best projected pitcher this week is Spencer Strider, who is also a trade target despite having a 0-5 record and 5.40 ERA. His xERA is not much better at 5.19. He’s getting whiffs, but that’s about it right now. Still, THE BAT X projects he’ll improve, and he’s at the top of the list this week. Tarik Skubal will likely always be on the top one-start pitchers list because he’s nearly unstoppable, with a 2.16 ERA and strong Statcast metrics across the board. Going against the Orioles, he could dominate.

At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Chris Sale, who will face the Brewers (third place in the NL Central) and the lowly Rockies (12-53). Sale is 3-4 but with a 2.93 ERA. He’s struggling with walks a little, but otherwise has been impressive with a 30.9 (!) K rate and 34.7 (!) Chase%. On this list, Griffin Canning is the most available on waivers and sports a 2.90 ERA with a 6-2 record. His expected stats are much worse than his actual stats, but this is a good week to start him against Washington and Tampa Bay.

Based on matchups, the Mets’ bullpen should perform well, but that’s typical, as they have the best team ERA in the league at 2.85. The Cubs’ Daniel Palencia has a 1.64 ERA and five saves. His strikeouts are great, but he needs to reduce his walks a bit. Still, he’s around 47% rostered on Yahoo, so if he’s available on your wire, consider grabbing him this week, as he faces the Phillies and Pirates.

THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.

(Photo of Agustín Ramírez: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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