The Indiana Pacers proved they are a team to be taken seriously despite entering the 2025 NBA Finals as heavy underdogs after their series-opening victory at Oklahoma City. They displayed that again with a Game 3 victory in the first game of the series in Indiana. Despite trailing early in the fourth quarter, the Pacers rallied for a 116-107 victory to take a 2-1 series lead in the 2025 NBA Finals heading into Game 4 in Indiana on Friday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The latest Pacers vs. Thunder odds list OKC as the 6-point favorite, while the total is 226.5. Tyrese Haliburton has fed off the home crowd throughout the year with stronger performances in Indiana, which continued on Wednesday with 22 points and 11 assists, compared to his overall postseason average of 18.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.
Haliburton averaged more than three points more and nearly 1.5 assists more at home compared to on the road this season. He has been a moneymaker at home for those playing NBA player props on betting sites heading into another matchup against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Both stellar point guards could be popular pieces of Thunder vs. Pacers same-game parlay picks. The model projects that to continue for NBA Finals player prop bets, making Haliburton to go Over his number of 27.5 total points + assists as one of its best bets on Friday on online betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 4 NBA props (odds subject to change):
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 27.5 points + assists (+100)
- Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+128)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 47.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Tyrese Haliburton Over 27.5 points + assists (+100)
Haliburton had 22 points and 11 assists in Game 3 to comfortably go Over this total for his fourth straight home postseason game. Haliburton, an All-Star in two of the last three seasons, has truly played at an All-Star level in Indiana this postseason as he averaged 24.3 points and 11.7 assists at home against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals before being a key piece in the team’s Game 3 home victory against the Thunder.
Meanwhile, Haliburton is averaging just 17.7 points and 9.3 assists per game on the road, so his road performances have lowered his overall averages to shrink this number. That creates strong value in a 27.5 points + assists total in Indiana, based on the model’s projections. The model projects him for 31 points + assists as Haliburton has gone Over his total points + assists market in seven of his last 10 home games against a top-10 ranked defense, averaging 33.1 total points + assists per game in that span. bet365 has this play at +100 odds, while other sportsbooks have it as minus-money, making this the place to quickly make this play before the odds move here as well. New users can join with a bet365 bonus code that offers $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses.
Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+128)
Turner was held to just two rebounds in Game 3, but the 6-foot-11 center was battling an illness and still played 30 minutes despite being at less than full health. Turner displayed his presence on the glass in Game 1 with nine rebounds. Although he’s averaging 4.9 rebounds this series, he averaged 6.5 rebounds per game during the regular season. A full day off between games should help Turner feel healthier for Game 4, which could lead to better rebounding production.
Turner was still highly involved in Game 3 despite his lack of rebounds with 11 field-goal attempts, one of just four players with double-digit shot attempts, so his role isn’t going anywhere. Turner has gone Over his total rebounds market in four of his last five games as a home underdog against a top-10 defense, averaging 9.6 total rebounds per game in those contests. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Turner Over 5.5 rebounds at +128 odds while other betting apps have Turner priced in the +110 range, and a FanDuel promo code gives new users $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 47.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone Under this total in all three games of the NBA Finals, including being held to 24 points, eight rebounds and four assists for a 36 PRA total in Game 3 in Indiana. The 2025 NBA MVP averaged fewer points, rebounds and assists on the road during the regular season for a 42.9 PRA average despite playing more minutes per game on the road. He’s gone Under this number in six of eight road postseason games and that’s a trend Oh expects to continue in Game 4. Oh also notes Gilgeous-Alexander’s inability to get to the foul line as often lately as a cause for concern.
“The narrative that he gets too many friendly foul calls seems to be impacting his ability to get to the line,” Oh said. “In three of his last four games, he has just six, eight and four free-throw attempts. His FTAs and FT% are noticeably down in the playoffs, and his 3-point percentage is down from over 37% in the regular season to under 32% in the playoffs.” DraftKings Sportsbook is offering SGA Under 47.5 at -120 odds, while other betting apps have already moved the number down to 46.5 with some having the Under juiced more than -110 odds even with the number decreased. A DraftKings promo code gives new users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins as a great way to make this wager.
Want more NBA picks for Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA props for Pacers vs. Thunder on Friday in Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see Friday’s top NBA picks from expert Jason La Canfora, who’s on a sizzling 113-82-1 (+2167.5) roll over his last 196 NBA picks. He already has a pick locked in for Game 4. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for Game 4, all from an expert who’s up over 21 units.
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