The 2025 NBA Finals will shift back to Oklahoma City for Game 5 on Monday with the series tied up 2-2. It’s a best-of-three going forward as the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder have alternated wins and losses thus far. Role players typically perform better at home, one of the Thunder vs. Pacers betting trends to keep in mind with NBA player props. However, the focus of Thunder vs. Pacers props will remain on stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton. The former’s 15 fourth-quarter points in Game 4 nearly matched Indiana’s 17 as a team. He went over his NBA points prop of 34.5 on Friday and has an Over/Under of 33.5 for Game 5.
As for Haliburton, he had just two rebounds in Game 4. Haliburton’s Over/Under for rebounds in Game 5 is 4.5 in the NBA player props, juiced to -158 for the Over and +120 for the Under. The model likes the plus-money odds for the Under as one of its Thunder vs. Pacers best bets for Game 5 on online betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for Monday’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 5 NBA props (odds subject to change):
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-114)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 4.5 rebounds (+120)
- Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 points + assists (-113)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 33.5 points (-114)
The MVP has 34-plus points in four of six games this regular plus postseason versus Indiana, just missing a fifth as he had 33 in another contest. He’s always looking for his shot but appeared even more aggressive in Game 4 as he had zero assists for the first time in 2024-25. OKC will take that, considering the result of the game, so Gilgeous-Alexander is unlikely to alter his strategy much in Game 5, especially with the familiar rims that playing at home provides. SGA’s true shooting percentage is 65.4% at home, compared to 61.8% on the road.
One shouldn’t discount the fourth quarter that Gilgeous-Alexander had in Game 4, finding holes in the Pacers defense en route to 15 points in the final frame. He scored from beyond the arc (3 points), in the mid-range (2 points), inside the paint (2 points) and, of course, from the line (8 points). Expect OKC to deploy Gilgeous-Alexander in the same manner in Game 5 over the course of the entire game, instead of one quarter. Indiana should also contribute to him hitting the Over as it’s a little more giving in away arenas, as the Pacers allow 2.5 more points per game in road playoff games than at home. A FanDuel promo code will allow you to play the best odds of -114.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 4.5 rebounds (+120)
Over his last eight games versus Oklahoma City, Haliburton has gone under 4.5 rebounds six times, with the low of just two boards coming in Friday’s loss. He’s never been known as one of those point guards who crashes the glass, but he’s been even more reticent to go after offensive rebounds in the 2025 NBA Finals. Despite logging the second-most minutes of any player in the Finals, Haliburton ranks 19th amongst players in offensive boards. Ajay Mitchell of OKC, who has played just seven minutes, has twice as many (two) offensive rebounds as the lone offensive board that Haliburton has in 146 minutes.
That should contribute to Haliburton hitting the Under, and recent trends lead towards that as well. Over his last 25 road games, he’s averaged 4.2 total rebounds, as the Under for his rebounds prop has hit 60% of the time. The Thunder’s 3-point percentage of 18.8% in Game 4 was the third-lowest by a team in a Finals game over the last decade, but the Pacers’ point guard could still only muster two boards. The model sees Haliburton being a bit more active on the glass in Game 5 but not enough to reach the Over as it projects 4.2 rebounds. Considering the +120 odds that can be played with a Caesars sportsbook promo code, the value is too good to pass up on.
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 7.5 points + assists (-113)
After starting 53 of 57 regular season games, and each of the first 16 postseason games, Hartenstein was moved to the bench for the first three Finals games. However, he returned to the starting lineup in Game 4, which resulted in a road win. So, he should stay there going forward, which puts him in line for more playing time and more stats. While Hartenstein is averaging 2.1 assists in both road and home playoff games, returning to OKC should boost his scoring output. He’s putting up 9.9 points per game at home in the 2025 NBA playoffs, compared to 6.2 points on the road, so he could hit the Over with his points alone.
“Despite his 5-2 under stretch his last 7 games he has crushed this over with a 13.8 average and a ridiculous 71-7, 91% over rate this season,” Oh said. “Our projection of 6.2 points and 2.1 assists reflects his reduced output recently but that’s still solid over value at this point in the season where lines are sharp… If Hartenstein gets involved early he could cover this in the first 20 minutes of the game.” A DraftKings promo code gives new users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins as one way to make this wager.
Want more NBA picks for Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA props for Pacers vs. Thunder on Monday in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see Monday’s top NBA picks from expert Jason La Canfora, who’s on a sizzling 114-83-1 (+2157.5) roll over his last 198 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for Game 5, all from an expert who’s up over 21 units.
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